Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction, Best Bets: Leicester City vs. Crystal Palace EPL Betting Preview

Leicester vs. Crystal Palace Odds

Leicester City had one of its most encouraging performances of the season in a 1-1 draw at Manchester United last time out in a game that it easily could have won without a few controversial decisions going against it.

The Foxes' winning goal was correctly ruled out for a foul, but they were the better side across the balance of the 90 minutes. Next up for the club is a return to King Power Stadium on Sunday to face Crystal Palace, which just dominated London rival Arsenal in Monday's 3-0 rout at Selhurst Park.

The Foxes are in a tricky spot with the match sitting between the two legs of its Europa Conference League quarterfinal against Dutch side PSV Eindhoven. If they want to play in Europe next season, they'll need to win the title to secure a Europa League place.

Given its position in the league, that makes Thursday's match in the Netherlands more important for Leicester, given it's tied on aggregate going on the road.

On the other side, Palace has a real chance at a top-half finish with a strong end to the campaign in the final eight matches. At this point, it would be deserved given the Eagles have a positive goal and expected goal differences. The Eagles have been the considerably better side, and even though they're on the road, they'e not getting enough respect in the betting market.

Leicester City Still Searching for Consistency

Leicester's primary issues early in the season were on offense, where it was struggling to control the midfield and create chances. However, the main issue really came on defense as the season has progressed. The Foxes have conceded 47.7 xGA and 47 total goals, which is seventh worst in goals conceded and fourth worst in xG allowed.

One weakness has come in defending set pieces, where Leicester has let in the second-most goals in the English top flight. The Foxes have given up 14 goals from 13.3 xGA thus far. Palace hasn't exactly been great on set pieces, as it has produced just five goals, but the 7.9 xG created suggests they can be dangerous when given opportunities.

The Foxes are reliant on creating high turnovers to use their effective quick-strike attack to generating big scoring chances. They rank fifth in the EPL in high turnovers forced and scored the second-most goals from those pressed mistakes. It's important when playing Leicester that you have good center backs and can play through pressure, two things that Palace has done well.

Leicester's defense has had major issues conceding big scoring chances when teams have been able to play through it, plus injuries have taken a toll on the defensive personnel. Yet, the Foxes have allowed the third-most box entires, fourth-most shots and fourth-most xGA in the entire league.

Crystal Palace Showing Vast Improvement

The biggest improvements for Palace have come in the midfield and defense. Center back Marc Guehi's ability to carry the ball and play it forward from defense has helped the Eagles handle teams who press. And while Conor Gallagher isn't always on the ball, he's excellent at pressing and shows up on the edge of the box to add a scoring punch.

They've gotten younger and better across the pitch, and with new manager Patrick Vieira's tactics, the underlying numbers have improved as well. Palace has clear strengths in defensive midfield. It ranks seventh best in the EPL at preventing opponents from getting into their own penalty area and sit eighth in passes per defensive action.

Palace used to be exclusively a direct, counterattacking team, but it really hasn't been this season. The Eagles are bottom 10 in attack speed and patient enough to play through Leicester, while still having the pace to play in behind if the host side overcommits.

Palace has been a positive regression candidate the majority of this season and it's finally showing up in results, given the club is unbeaten in its last five league matches.

BJ Cunningham's EPL Projections

Betting Analysis & Pick

Crystal Palace has been dramatically better at home than it has been on the road when you look at the underlying numbers. However, Leicester's home splits are also not particularly impressive overall. The Foxes have a -0.2 xG difference per 90 minutes at home  and their defense is due for a ton of negative regression.

Leicester is allowing 1.67 xGA at home, but has only conceded around 1.14 goals per match. Palace can take advantage of its defensive lapses and won't succumb to the Foxes' attempt to produce high turnovers.

My projection makes Leicester City just a slight favorite of -105 odds on the Draw No Bet wager. The market is showing plenty of respect to the Foxes' recent form, but the Eagles have been the better team most of the season and can be effective playing without the ball.

I'd play Crystal Palace on the Draw No Bet wager at +110 odds or better before the club no longer has any betting value.

Pick: Crystal Palace — Draw No Bet (+110 or better)

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