Now that the 2025 NFL schedule has been released in full as of Wednesday, May 14, sportsbooks have started to increase their offerings for Week 1 game markets.
With way-too-early lines comes way-too-early value.
Here are my top five NFL Week 1 spots and NFL picks where I see an early edge.
Giants vs. Commanders
Sunday, Sept. 7 · 1 p.m. ET
As far as four-month lookahead lines go, this one is pretty egregious.
Both teams improved their personnel in the offseason, but the three-win Giants had more draft picks, more free agent signings and a whole lot more ways to improve than the 12-win, NFC Championship runner-up Commanders.
Most importantly, the quarterback position should be better than every depth chart position with Wilson-Winston-Dart in place of Jones-Lock-DeVito.
Even with the wide discrepancy between these teams last year, New York played Washington close both times, losing just 21-18 in Week 2 (without a kicker) and 27-22 in Week 9 (without a pulse).
The market has been underrating divisional underdogs in Week 1 for two decades and counting.
Per our Action Labs data, Week 1 divisional 'dogs that failed to make the prior postseason have gone 61-27-2 (69.3%) ATS with an average cover margin of +3.43 since 2005.
Way-too-Early Pick: Giants +7.5 (Play to +6.5)
Steelers vs. Jets
Sunday, Sept. 7 · 1 p.m. ET
Mike Tomlin-coached teams have gone just 5-12 (29.4%) ATS as September favorites outside of Pittsburgh. They’ve been upset half the time, going just 8-8-1.
Backing Pittsburgh’s opponent in this spot has produced an ROI of 35.7% on spread bets and 33.5% on moneyline bets.
The Steelers are likely to sign Aaron Rodgers, but that's not a reason to shy away from fading them in Week 1. The fact that Rodgers still hasn’t signed is on brand for a dude who has given precisely zero damns about offseason activities for quite some time.
Also on brand for Rodgers: Week 1 clunkers. Since 2021, Rodgers is 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS in Week 1, failing to cover by 13.6 points per game.
The only “win” he got credited for over that span was the 2023 opener against Buffalo, when he was lost for the season after four snaps in a game the Jets went on to win 22-16 in overtime. He lost the other three games by a cumulative score of 93-29.
In five healthy Week 1 starts since 2019, he has cracked 20 points only once and been held to 10 points or fewer three times.
Also, Rodgers hasn’t been the decisively better QB since his 2021 MVP campaign when Justin Fields was a rookie.
Since 2022, Fields has thrown for more yards per attempt (7.0 to 6.7), posted the better snap-weighted QBR (51.3 to 44.5), averaged more total touchdowns per start (1.62 to 1.57), and hilariously even has more MVP votes (1 to 0).
Way-too-Early Picks: Jets +2.5 (Play to +2) · Jets ML +120 (Play to +100)
Cowboys vs. Eagles
Thursday, Sept. 4 · 8:20 p.m. ET
With Kevin Patullo replacing Kellen Moore as the Eagles' new offensive coordinator, Jalen Hurts has had only one repeat offensive coordinator (Shane Steichen in 2022 and 2023).
Despite the constant turnover, Hurts and the offense have consistently been dialed in for previous Week 1s. Hurts is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in Week 1 in his career while leading the offense to 31.0 points per game in those contests.
Both Patullo and head coach Nick Sirianni have been with the Eagles since Hurts' second season in 2021, so I wouldn't expect the latest transition to be any different.
The same can't be said for the Cowboys defense.
Micah Parsons should be healthier in 2025 than he was in 2024, when he was limited to 13 games with an ankle injury, but there are still a lot of question marks.
The defense could take some time to gel under Matt Eberflus, who will replace Mike Zimmer at defensive coordinator — their third defensive coordinator in as many years.
This is a defense that slipped from fifth in points allowed in 2023 under Dan Quinn to 31st last season under Zimmer (27.5).
Adverse effects of a potential tush push ban on the Eagles offense are overstated. Hurts is still one of the top rushing quarterbacks in the league, and Saquon Barkley is arguably the league's best running back; they'll find ways to get the ball across the pylon.
The over is 3-1 in Hurts’ four career Week 1 starts, including 3-0 with a +13.0 average cover margin since the Eagles acquired A.J. Brown in 2022.
The Eagles have gone 21-11 (65.6%) to the over at home with Hurts as the starter, including 7-3 in divisional matchups.
They’ve scored 21 or more points in 27 of Hurts’ last 29 regular-season home starts (93.1%) as well as each of his last nine divisional home starts dating back to 2021.
They’ve also scored 22-plus in 25 of his last 29 home starts (86.2%) and eight of his last nine in the division (88.8%), as well as 24-plus in 23-of-29 (79.3%) home starts and 7-of-9 (77.8%) in the division.
Those numbers suggest an edge on a few Eagles alternate team total overs, which make for solid parlay anchors.
- Over 20.5 (-325 at DraftKings): 76.5% implied odds, ~93% actual
- Over 21.5 (-285 at DraftKings): 74.0% implied, ~86% actual
- Over 23.5 (-198 at DraftKings): 66.4% implied, ~79% actual
Way-too-Early Picks: Eagles Alt. Team Total Over 20.5 (Play to -567), 21.5 (Play to -400) & 23.5 (Play to -300)
Bengals vs. Browns
Sunday, Sept. 7 · 1 p.m. ET
The Bengals’ regularly scheduled early-season meltdown has kicked off early with their best defensive player publicly shading the head coach. Joe Burrow has lost his last seven pre-Week 3 starts and is just 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS in Weeks 1-2 in his career.
In Week 1, specifically, Burrow has gone 1-4 SU and ATS.
Of those four losses, precisely zero were of the respectable variety, and all of them came against quarterbacks in the midst of a career freefall: Jacoby Brissett, Patriots edition 2.0; Deshaun Watson, post-massage edition; Mitch Trubisky, worse-than-Kenny-Pickett edition; and Tyrod Taylor, three-starts-post-Peterman/one-start-pre-stabbing edition.
Burrow has also struggled in Cleveland, winning just one of his four career starts and averaging just 5.3 yards per attempt.
You just know the Bengals will find a way to silver-platter either the last-ever career win for Joe Flacco or Kenny Pickett, or the first-ever career win for Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders.
This line will likely continue to go up as the public realizes Sanders is QB4 on the depth chart, so no need to bet this now.
Way-too-Early Pick: Browns +4.5 (Play to +3.5)
Panthers vs. Jaguars
Sunday, Sept. 7 · 1 p.m. ET
Last season, Liam Coen went to a new team in the Bucs and took over an offense that had averaged 20 points per game the year before and was quarterbacked by a former No. 1 overall pick who hadn’t lived up to the hype in Baker Mayfield.
His Week 1 opponent last season, the Commanders, featured an offense quarterbacked by a 23-year-old, top-two overall pick in Jayden Daniels and a defense that ranked dead last in points allowed the year prior (30.5).
In Coen’s first game, the Bucs erupted for a 37-20 win after closing as a favorite of -3.5 at home. They would go on to average 29.5 points per game and rank top-five in nearly every offensive category.
This season, Coen takes over a Jags organization and inherits an offense that has averaged 20.5 points per game in starts made by Trevor Lawrence, a former No. 1 overall pick who — you guessed it — hasn’t lived up to the hype.
This year’s Week 1 opponent is the Panthers, who are quarterbacked by Bryce Young, a former No. 1 overall pick who doesn’t turn 24 for another couple of months.
Carolina’s defense last year? None other than dead last in points allowed at 31.4 per game.
Naturally, the Jags are currently favored at home by -3.5 against the Panthers for Week 1. There’s a pretty big swag/rizz gap between Mayfield and Lawrence, but otherwise, all the pieces are in place for the Jags offense to make a similarly large jump.
The jury is still out on the Jags defense, so I wouldn’t go laying -3.5 — once again, the edge is on the team total.
Even if the Jags don’t end up making a Bucs-like jump, Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter and company give them enough juice to cook the league’s worst defense from 2024.
They should be able to clear their median team total (23.5 at -130 at DraftKings) and are also a good bet to cash their longer-shot alternate team total lines.
If Coen can coax another 37-point Week 1 performance out of his new team, the Jags would clear every single one of their alt. team totals currently listed at plus-money (the max currently listed is 34.5).
Way-too-Early Picks: Jaguars Median Team Total Over 23.5 (-130) · Jaguars Alt. Team Total Over 34.5 (+550 · Ladder as Much as Desired in Between)
