We are just a measly 117 days away from Sunday NFL football and 114 days away from the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys kicking the season off on Thursday Night Football at Lincoln Financial Field.
Let's dive into a few notes, stats, and trends to get hyped for the upcoming 2025 season.
Strength of Schedule
We're going to start with the schedule itself. Let's go over some superlatives with the schedule and look at some top-5 and bottom-5 lists.
Let's start with win totals by looking at the hardest and easiest full-season schedules. The search graph below shows all 32 teams broken down by a few season segments.
Top-5/Bottom-5:
| Win Total SOS – Hardest | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1. Giants | 9.1 | |||||
 2. Browns | 9.1 | |||||
 3. Lions | 9.0 | |||||
 4. Vikings | 8.9 | |||||
 5. Ravens | 8.9 | |||||
| Win Total SOS – Easiest | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1. 49ers | 7.7 | |||||
 2. Patriots | 7.9 | |||||
 3. Saints | 8.1 | |||||
 4. Falcons | 8.2 | |||||
 5. Jaguars | 8.3 | |||||
All 32 Teams:
SOS by Rest
Now, we are looking at strength of schedule based on simply the teams' rest advantage entering each matchup compared to their opponent. For example, in Week 4, the Dolphins face the Jets on Monday Night Football. The Dolphins are coming off a Thursday Night Football game the week before, while the Jets played on a normal Sunday. The Dolphins score a +3 for this game, while the Jets score a -3.
Below, a positive rest differential is good, while a negative one is bad.
Top-5/Bottom-5:
| Positive Rest Differential | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. Lions | +12 | |||||
 2. Dolphins | +11 | |||||
 3. Rams | +10 | |||||
4. 49ers | +9 | |||||
 5. Seahawks | +7 | |||||
| Negative Rest Differential | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1. Raiders | -19 | |||||
2. Saints | -14 | |||||
 3. Commanders | -13 | |||||
 4. Bills | -8 | |||||
5. Browns | -7 | |||||
All 32 Teams:
For the rest of the rankings and full lists, here is the full article:
Early Test
We haven't had a double-digit favorite in Week 1 since Eagles vs. Commanders in 2019. The closest right now are the Commanders (-7 vs. Giants) and Broncos (-7 vs. Titans).
The six-year run without a double-digit favorite in Week 1 is the longest such streak since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger. If it does get there, double-digit favorites in Week 1 are 25-5 SU in the Wild Card era, with the biggest upset going to the Texans against the Dolphins as 14-point underdogs in 2003.
Intercontinental Breakfast
The International Series is out:
🇧🇷 Chiefs at Chargers, Sept. 5 (Corinthians Arena)
🇮🇪 Vikings at Steelers, Sept. 28 (Croke Park)
🇬🇧 Vikings at Browns, Oct. 5 (Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)
🇬🇧 Broncos at Jets, Oct. 12 (Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)
🇬🇧 Rams at Jaguars, Oct. 19 (Wembley Stadium)
🇩🇪 Falcons at Colts, Nov. 9 (Olympic Stadium)
🇪🇸 Commanders at Dolphins, Nov. 16 (Santiago Bernabeu Stadium)
Let's look at a few facts and trends from the 49 total international games:
The under has a small edge at 26-23. Here's a breakdown by stadium:
- Wembley: 14-12 to the under
- Twickenham: 2-1 to the under
- Allianz: 2-0 to the under
- Corinthians: 1-0 to the over
- Deutsch Bank Park: 2-0 to the under
- Azteca: 3-2 to the over
- Tottenham: 6-4 to the over
Favorites have excelled in international games. They are 36-12-1 SU and 32-17 ATS. Favorites at Wembley Stadium are 19-6-1 SU, which is the best of any International Series stadium.
Bigger public sides have actually had success in overseas matchups.
- 60%+: 21-16 ATS
- 66%+: 14-10 ATS
- 70%+: 8-3 ATS
Favorites of a field goal or more overseas are 26-8-1 SU, 22-13 ATS.
AFC Brazil
Our first International game is Chargers-Chiefs from Brazil. A few nuggets to wet the appetite.
Mahomes is 19-4 SU and 13-9-1 ATS in September – 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS in openers (over is 6-1 in Mahomes Week 1 openers, going over by 6.3 PPG). As Chiefs head coach, Andy Reid is 8-4 ATS and 10-2 SU in season openers.
Overall, Mahomes is only 2-5-1 ATS vs. Herbert in his career, making Justin his least profitable opposing QB ATS.
Andy Reid is 50-23 SU in September since 2003, including 22-4 SU since 2017-18. His 50-23 record has profited a $100 moneyline bettor $1,186 — the most of any coach in the Bet Labs database.
Herbert has been dangerous as an underdog. When his team closes above a FG dog (+3.5 or more), he is 11-2-1 ATS in his career, including 13-1 in a 6-point teaser.
Over the last two seasons, the Chargers are 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS in games decided by 3 pts or less. Every other team in the NFL has at least two wins in games decided by 3 pts or less in this span.
King of the North
Looking for a potential advantage across the massive release of the NFL schedule? For the last three seasons, the AFC North (78-55-5 ATS) and the NFC North (78-59-4 ATS) are the 1st and 2nd-best teams ATS outside of their division.
The NFC North had a season to remember last year outside the division, going 30-17 ATS — last two seasons, they are 58-35-3 ATS (62.4%) vs. teams outside the NFC North, covering the spread by 3.4 PPG.
Dancin' in September
Some coaches are tough to beat early in the season.
Andy Reid is 50-23 SU in September since 2003, including 22-4 SU since 2017-18. His 50-23 record has profited a $100 moneyline bettor $1,186 — the most of any coach in the Bet Labs database. Sean McDermott is another coach who tends to start hot. Buffalo is 12-4 SU in September since 2020.
From an ATS perspective, Dan Campbell, Matt LaFleur, and Jim Harbaugh have some good history early in the season:
- Campbell is 11-3 ATS in September, going above .500 ATS in all four seasons.
- LaFleur is 15-6 ATS in September, but he is 8-1 ATS on the road and 7-3 ATS at home (0-2 ATS in neutral site games).
- Jim Harbaugh is 11-6-2 ATS in September, going .500 ATS or better in each of his seasons as a coach in the NFL.
Whether it's Joe Burrow, the Bengals, or Zac Taylor, they seem to start slow. Taylor with Burrow and Andy Dalton as his QBs is 7-14-1 SU in September, including 5-7 SU as a favorite and 4-6 SU at home.
How Perfect
Bengals struggle early in the season, and they have struggled against the Browns in the past. Let's combine the two for Week 1.
In Joe Burrow’s NFL career, he is 46-29-1 ATS (61%), but Burrow has had his ATS struggles early in the season. He’s 3-7 ATS in his first two games of the year, and 43-22-1 ATS in game three or later. Burrow has yet to go 2-0 ATS in the first two games of the year in any of his five seasons. His 3-7 ATS mark is tied with Kirk Cousins and Matthew Stafford for the worst mark of 64 QBs since Burrow was drafted.
Burrow is 1-4 SU and ATS in Week 1. Only three quarterbacks have started every Week 1 between 2020 and 2024 and went 1-4 ATS or worse: Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, and Burrow. Burrow has actually beaten the Browns twice in a row after starting 1-5 SU against them.
Turn Around
The Chiefs are coming off a Super Bowl loss and now open up against the Chargers in Brazil.
Since 2000, the loser of the Super Bowl has had a tough time getting over its hangover in Week 1 of the following season. Super Bowl losers are 11-14 SU, 6-19 ATS. Looking lately, it’s seen a bit of a turn. Since 2017, Super Bowl losers are 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS in Week 1.
The Longshots
Only 12 teams at +1000 or higher have won their division title since 2002 (division realignment). Since 2020, we've seen it happen three times: 2023 Texans (+1100), 2021 Bengals (+2500), and 2020 Washington (+2200).
Longest Odds to Win Division in 2025
- +3300 – Giants, NFC East
- +3000 – Browns, AFC North
- +2000 – Raiders, AFC West
- +1500 – Jets, AFC East
Early Test
Cam Ward and JJ McCarthy will begin their NFL careers in Week 1, having to play on the road against non-first-year quarterbacks, though both are second-year quarterbacks. Since the NFL merger in 1970, rookie quarterbacks having to play on the road in Week 1 are 8-21 SU and 13-14-2 ATS, losing those games SU by an average of 5.9 PPG. The rookie quarterback's team averages about 17.9 PPG. The last win SU came from Sam Darnold back in 2018.
Sunday Night Football
The Ravens and Bills open up their seasons on Sunday Night Football against each other, with Buffalo a short home favorite.
Lamar Jackson is 9-6 straight up and 12-3 against the spread when listed as an underdog in his NFL career, and he’s 14-1 in a 6-point teaser as an underdog. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are the two QBs Jackson has lost to ATS as an underdog in his career.
X Marks The Spot
The Panthers haven't covered the spread in a game they were favored in since September 2021—almost four full years.
Favored once since 2022 – In Dec. 2024 vs. Cowboys
Lost 10 straight games ATS as a favorite
Every other NFL team has at least three covers as a favorite in this span
Looking at the Panthers' schedule this season, they are projected to be favored in three games currently listed at sportsbooks.
Cam I Am
The Titans open the regular season against the Broncos on the road.
Since the merger in 1970, there have been 28 No. 1 pick quarterbacks. In their first start, they are 5-22-1 SU and 8-20 ATS. Caleb Williams broke the drought of quarterbacks winning last year, with the last one before Caleb being David Carr in 2002.
The Big Leap
The Commanders entered last year at 150-1 to win it all, and they are now 18-1 and a contender. They join an exclusive list, with a few more members over the last few years. Each of the last four years, we’ve had a “hype team” – a team that went from 150-1 or longer to 20-1 or shorter in Super Bowl odds year-to-year.
Eight teams have made the WAS jump.
- 4 made the playoffs
- 3 won a playoff game
- 0 made SB
- 6 finished the regular season below .500 ATS
Biggest SB Odds Move to 20-1 or Shorter, Year-To-Year Since 1977:
- 1979 to 1980 WAS 300-1 to 8-1 (+29,200)
- 1990 to 1991 DAL 250-1 to 20-1 (+23,000)
- 2023 to 2024 HOU 200-1 to 15-1 (+18,500)
- 1999 to 2000 STL 150-1 to 3-1 (+14,700)
- 1983 to 1984 NO 150-1 to 8-1 (+14,200)
- 2024 to 2025 WAS 150-1 to 18-1 (+13,200)
- 2022 to 2023 NYJ 150-1 to 18-1 (+13,200)
- 2021 to 2022 CIN 150-1 to 20-1 (+13,000)
- 1987 to 1988 IND 150-1 to 20-1 (+13,000)
All The Juice
Dak Prescott gets his first crack at the NFC East this season in Week 1, facing the Eagles, and then in Week 2, facing the Giants.
In his NFL career as a starter, Dak has made 129 total starts. He has only closed +7 or higher five times, and Dallas is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in those games. The last such game came in Week 1 of 2019 vs. Tom Brady and the Bucs.
Dak Prescott Biggest Underdog Spreads vs. NFC East:
- +7.5 at Giants, 2018 (W, 36-35)
- +7.5 at Eagles, 2018 (W, 27-20)
- +7 at Eagles, 2025
- +6.5 at Eagles, 2016 (L, 27-13)
Prescott has excelled in his career against NFC East foes. He is 29-12 ATS vs. the NFC East, covering the spread by almost 6.7 PPG. Since 2003, here are the most profitable QBs ATS vs. Division Foes:
- Aaron Rodgers: 57-35 ATS
- Dak Prescott: 29-12 ATS
- Ben Roethlisberger: 54-38-3 ATS
- Tom Brady: 63-47-5 ATS
Always One
There has been at least one team that made the playoffs with a preseason win total under .500 in every season since 2003. A team with a win total below 7 has now made the playoffs in five straight years, the longest streak in the Wild Card era (since 1990). Ever since the NFL moved to 14 playoff teams in 2020, this trend has come through each season.
2024 – WAS (6.5), MIN (6.5), DEN (5.5)
2023 – HOU (6.5), LAR (6.5), TB (6)
2022 – JAC (6.5), SEA (5.5)
2021 – PHI (6.5), CIN (6.5)
2020 – WAS (5)
Expectations have a few different measures, here’s one. In the last 20 years, here are the highest average win totals by team that hasn't won a Super Bowl: Chargers 9.2, Cowboys 9.18, 49ers 9.05. Here is the list over the last decade: Ravens 9.85, Packers 9.7, Steelers 9.2, Cowboys 9.2, Bills 9.15.
Road Woes
Tua Tagovailoa is 2-13 straight up and 4-10-1 against the spread away from home vs. “winning teams” in his NFL career with the Dolphins.
His last straight-up win came in September of 2022 against the Ravens. That's ten consecutive losses.
Looking at the Dolphins' schedule, Miami is projected to play away from home vs. a winning team, potentially early in the season in Week 3 at Buffalo or Week 8 at Atlanta.
Early Crisis
The Colts haven't had a good start to the season over the past decade-plus.
Since 2008, the Colts are 2-14-1 straight up and ATS in Week 1 – including 1-6 ATS vs. AFC South opponents. Since 2003, the Colts are 6-14-2 ATS in their season opener, the second-least profitable team ATS in the NFL, ahead of just the Panthers.
This year, the Colts face the Dolphins at home in Week 1. Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning are the only two Colts quarterbacks to win a Week 1 game in the past 20 years.
Pack Your Bags
The 49ers, Giants, Buccaneers, and Panthers will all open the regular season with two straight road games before their home opener in Week 3. Since 1990, teams to have their home opener in Week 3 or later are 64-56 SU (53%) but just 47-69-4 ATS (41%).
Lambeau Leap
Lions and Packers open the season in Green Bay.
Green Bay is 1-6 SU, 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. the Lions. Since 2017, the Packers are 3-12-1 ATS vs. Detroit. Lions are Matt LaFleur’s least profitable opponent ATS as coach of the Packers (3-8-1 ATS).
Who is the most profitable QB against the spread in Week 1 since 2003? The answer: Jared Goff, who is 8-0 ATS in his opener (4-0 SU/ATS with the Rams and 2-2 SU, 4-0 ATS with the Lions).
12th Man Agenda
When the Seahawks open the season at home, they are 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS since 2000. Seattle is 32-6 SU at home in their first three games of the regular season dating back to 2003, which would be the 49ers in Week 1 and the Saints in Week 3.
Seattle is a tough place to play, especially on a road trip. Teams playing in Seattle on the second game or later of a road trip are 13-40 SU since 2003, losing by almost 9 PPG.
Here are those games in 2025: Week 10 vs. Cardinals (off at DAL), Week 13 vs. Vikings (off at GB), Week 15 vs. Colts (off at JAC)
Line History
If the Giants close above a 7-point underdog in Week 1 vs. the Commanders, it would be their biggest Week 1 line as a dog since 2004 vs. the Eagles (+8). If it closes above +8, it would be the Giants' biggest Week 1 line since 1972 vs. the Lions as a 9.5-point underdog.
For Washington, if the Commanders close above a 7-point favorite in Week 1 vs. the Giants, it would be their biggest Week 1 line since 2000 vs. the Panthers (-10.5).
Familiar Home Dogs
Overall, home underdogs are 56-56 against the spread in Week 1 over the past 20 years. Where we find the value is with divisional home dogs in Week 1. This year, we could have five matches: ATL, CLE, SEA, GB, CHI
Divisional home 'dogs are 27-15 ATS in the past 20 years, including 10-2 ATS since 2018, 18-4 ATS since 2012, and 24-7 ATS since 2009.
Early in the season, home underdogs have historically performed well ATS when getting a touchdown or more, too:
All About Math
A profitable method for betting underdogs is in low total games — fewer points means more of an opportunity for the 'dog to cover.
Underdogs in games with a total below 42 are 227-179-11 ATS (56%) since 2018. In the first eight weeks of the regular season, that spikes to 96-66-4 ATS (59%).
Road Warriors
The public tends to overrate favorites and home-field advantage, no matter what time of year it is. And early in the season, the public also tends to overrate what happened the year prior.
Road underdogs in Week 1 are 119-103-8 ATS over the past 20 years. If you split those road dogs by whether that team made the playoffs the year prior, you see a drastic change:
Made playoffs the year before: 25-39-3 ATS
Missed playoffs year before: 94-64-5 ATS
