Charles Schwab Challenge Expert Picks: Favorites, Long-Shots, Sleepers, Golf Odds This Week

The Charles Schwab Challenge tees off on Thursday morning from Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas.

Fresh off his win at the PGA Championship, Scoottie Scheffler leads the field this week as a heavy favorite of +250 at DraftKings. Scheffler is -175 to finish in the top five and -340 to finish in the top 10.

After Scheffler there's a steep drop on the odds board as many of the world's top players are taking the week after a major off. Jordan Spieth and Daniel Berger are both coming off at +2200 to win the Charles Schwab Challenge. Despite his recent struggles, Spieth has a strong history at this event, having won in 2016 and finishing in the top 15 nine times in 12 appearances.

Let's get into my 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge expert picks and PGA Tour best bets for this week.

Charles Schwab Challenge Expert Picks

Quickslip

Bet Jordan Spieth Outright Winner

Jordan Spieth Outright Winner (+2500)

I'm crazy enough to think Jordan Spieth can get back in the winner's circle this week. He missed the cut on the number last week at the PGA Championship, which means he didn't have to grind out a tough weekend at a major. He got to head home and prepare for one of his favorite tournaments each year.

In 12 starts at this event, he has a win, three runner-up finishes, and a total of nine top 15-finishes. He clearly loves the course, and I'm actually encouraged by his recent form. He's consistently gaining strokes off the tee, around the green, and on the green.

If he can have a good week with his irons (he's gained more than six strokes on approach three times this year), he should be in contention on Sunday.

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Bet Maverick McNealy Top 5

Maverick McNealy Outright Winner (+3300)

Maverick McNealy Top 5 (+550)

Whether or not you believe in the Official Golf World Rankings, Maverick McNealy has a chance to break into the top 10 in the world with a big week. He's currently 11th in the rankings, which shows how well he has played this year.

He picked up his first career win in November (RSM Classic) and has already posted three top-3 finishes this year.

He consistently gains in all four of the strokes gained categories, which means his game fits all types of courses. He gained across the board at last week's PGA Championship and has two top-20 finishes at this event in the last four years.

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Bet Aaron Rai Top 5

Aaron Rai Outright Winner (+3500)

Aaron Rai Top 5 (+550)

I rushed to get the +4500 number on Aaron Rai this week, but it was gone by the time I logged into FanDuel. I'm still happy to take the +3500 number, as I have him ranked third in my model rankings.

Rai is coming off a week where he gained eight strokes on approach, which is a mark that he's hit in four of his last 16 events. He's accurate off the tee and he's a good scrambler.

His upside depends on his putting each week. When he has a good week with the flat-stick, he tends to find himself in contention. In his last seven events where he's gained at least two strokes putting, he's finished T23, T14, T4, win, T4, T7, and runner-up.

Quickslip

Bet Lucas Glover Outright

Lucas Glover Outright Winner (+8000)

Lucas Glover Top 10 (+600)

Lucas Glover can easily putt himself out of a tournament. In the last four events combined, he has lost over 12 strokes putting.

While his strokes gained event log is full of red in the putting column, he is capable of having splash weeks with the putter. In fact, he's gained at least three strokes putting in four of his last 14 events.

He's one of the best ball-strikers in the field, so a good putting week could easily put him into contention. It doesn't hurt that he's had top 25 finishes in three of his last four trips to Colonial Country Club.

Charles Schwab Challenge Course Preview: Colonial Country Club

This event has had different names over the years, but it has always been held at Colonial Country Club. The course went through some major changes in 2023. The property has new green complexes, length was added to several holes, and there are barrancas that run through many of the holes.

This par-70 now measures 7,289 yards on the scorecard. It's one of the toughest non-major courses on the PGA Tour. It has ranked 5th, 9th, and 11th in difficulty over the last three years. The winning score typically ranges in the -10 to -15 range, which gives you an idea of what to expect this week.

Colonial is a classical course that features narrow and tree-lined fairways. While the course features plenty of doglegs, we have seen the field take a more aggressive route off the tee over the last few years. The field used driver 65% of the time in 2024, which is the highest mark we've ever seen at this event.

The greens here are small (5,000 square feet) and feature pure bentgrass. The greens are difficult to hit in regulation (57% last year), which places a major emphasis on approach play and scrambling. With those two playing such a key role here, it's no surprise that Spieth has played so well here in his career.

In terms of course fit, I'm looking for good total drivers of the ball, good approach players, good scramblers, good bentgrass putters, and golfers who have a good track record on difficult par-70 courses.

2025 Charles Schwab Challenge Schedule, How to Watch

• What: 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge
• When: May 22-25, 2025
• Where: Colonial Country Club, Fort Worth, TX
• Par: 70
• Length: 7,289
• Purse: $9.5 million

Round 1: Thursday, May 22

• Start time: 8:15 a.m. ET
• Live stream: ESPN+ (8:15 a.m. to 7 p.m. ET)
• TV coverage: Golf Channel (4 to 7 p.m. ET)

Round 2: Friday, May 23

• Start time: 8:15 a.m. ET
• Live stream: ESPN+ (8:15 a.m. to 7 p.m. ET)
• TV coverage: Golf Channel (4 to 7 p.m. ET)

Round 3: Saturday, May 24

• Start time: 8 a.m.
• Live stream: ESPN+ (8 a.m. to 6 a.m. ET)
• TV coverage: Golf Channel (1 to 3 p.m. ET); CBS (3 to 6 p.m. ET)

Round 4: Saturday, May 25

• Start time: 8 a.m.
• Live stream: ESPN+ (8 a.m. to 6 a.m. ET)
• TV coverage: Golf Channel (1 to 3 p.m. ET); CBS (3 to 6 p.m. ET)

2025 Charles Schwab Challenge Odds

Via DraftKings as of Tuesday afternoon

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