2019 Valspar Championship Betting Guide: Embrace the Chaos at Copperhead

2019 Valspar Championship Betting Guide: Embrace the Chaos at Copperhead article feature image
Credit:

Jasen Vinlove, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Henrik Stenson

  • Dustin Johnson (+550), Jon Rahm (+1000) and Jason Day (+1200) sit atop the odds for the 2019 Valspar Championship.
  • The Copperheard Course is one of the toughest tracks on tour and that means it is a good idea to fade the favorites.
  • Josh Perry analyzes which longshots have the right style to contend this weekend.

I can’t really say the result of The Players came as a surprise. Rory McIlroy had been knocking on the door of a victory for a few months and entered as one of the favorites, so it’s a tip of the cap to Rory.

I’m rarely going to have any of the top guys on my betting card, so it’s pretty easy to move on from that and focus on the Valspar Championship.

The Valspar is usually one of the hardest stops on tour. The best score to win here is 15-under par and, in eight of the past 12 years, 10-under or worse was good enough to win the tournament.

Players can get hot and post a random low round, but it’s very difficult to sustain over four days.

The Course

Innisbrook’s Copperhead course checks in at around 7,340 yards for a par 71. This is one of the rare tour stops that has five par 3s, so there’s a little added emphasis on par 3 scoring and how players handle approaches from over 200 yards.

The course is also known for it’s tough 3-hole closing stretch, The Snake Pit. The three holes all play over par, so if the leaders come down the stretch without much of a cushion there’s a decent chance they can blow their lead if someone has posted a good number earlier in the round.

The Field

There’s a surprisingly strong field this week for the Valspar given it’s place on the schedule where it’s sandwiched between The Players and the WGC match play event.

The Favorites

Dustin Johnson opened as a clear favorite at +550 and given his recent win in Mexico, it’s not surprising. Jon Rahm is next in line at +1000 and Jason Day is a close third at +1200.

It’s a clear fade for all three of these players from a betting perspective. There are reasons why they haven’t played here often. All three rely on their tee ball for success and this is another course like many in the Florida swing that limits the driver.

Sergio Garcia (+1600) and Patrick Reed (+2000) round out the top five. I’m not interested in either of them, but this is where the card would start if you’d want one of the bigger names.

I’d need Garcia to clock in around +4000 in a strong field like this and Reed rarely makes my card because of his ball striking. But both have multiple top 10 finishes in recent years.

The Mid-Tier

With the stars playing a course that may not be the best fit for them, I’ll take some shots in this range with some familiar names I’ve been backing in recent weeks.

We’ll start with Henrik Stenson at +4000. We were on Stenson a week ago at The Players where he missed the cut. The result wasn’t great, but he did gain strokes with the approach which will be key again this week.

Next, we’ll go back to Kevin Kisner for a third time this season. He is no longer in the triple-digits after spending a couple weeks on the leaderboard Saturday afternoon. We’re still looking for a final round for him to really get into contention, but I’ll try him one more time at +4500.

Bubba Watson has some past success at the Valspar Championship. Credit: Reinhold Matay, USA Today Sports.

I’ll also go with Bubba Watson and Lucas Glover at +5100.

Watson is another player who on the surface, would be the best fit here, but he — unlike the favorites — does have a third-place finish here (2010). He hasn’t played here much since, but knowing that Bubba has some past success at this course gives me enough confidence to fire a dart on him at this number.

Glover was in great form before a missed cut at The Players. With a weaker field, I’ll back him to bounce back.

Lastly, I’ll try Sung-Jae Im one more time at +7000. Im is another guy who missed the cut last week, but as you can see by the card, I’m not going hold that against guys this week. Im played well the two weeks prior to Sawgrass, so I’ll bet him on another course that could fit his eye.

Longshots

This has been a course that has produced its share of surprises. Four of the last eight winners went off at triple digits.

I’ll go back to the well with Chesson Hadley again at +12050. Basically I’m wiping The Players from my mind with him as well. He’s still got three top 20s in five starts and has made three of four cuts here.

I’ll also go with a top 10 on Kyoung-Hoon Lee at +1200. Lee has been one of the best with his approach over his past three events. He may have cooled down a bit after taking a couple weeks off, but if the irons are still there, then he could contend in this field.

The Card

  • Henrik Stenson +4000 (.825 units)
  • Kevin Kisner +4500 (.73 units)
  • Bubba Watson +5100 (.64 units)
  • Lucas Glover +5100 (.64 units)
  • Sungjae Im +7000 (.47 units)
  • Chesson Hadley +12050 (.27 units)
  • Kyoung-Hoon Lee Top 10 +1200 (.5 units)

Total Stake: 4.075

Season: -9.01

 

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