Bailey’s 2019 Wells Fargo Championship Matchup Bets: Jason Day vs. Rickie Fowler
- Justin Bailey breaks down his favorite matchup bet for the 2019 Wells Fargo Championship: Jason Day vs. Rickie Fowler.
I used to start this article with: “I’m not much of a longshot bettor when it comes to the PGA Tour, so I tend to focus on head-to-head matchups instead.”
But, I actually started betting outrights because, well, it’s fun. However, I still plan on supplementing outright bets with matchups.
In this piece, I’ll be using the golf metrics in the FantasyLabs PGA Models as well as other golf metrics in search of potentially exploitable matchups each week.
Let’s dive into this week’s card at the Wells Fargo Championship.
All odds as of Tuesday afternoon.
Jason Day over Rickie Fowler (+110)
In general, I’m not a big Day guy, but I never let my personal biases get in the way of my betting in any sport. All of these guys are just numbers on a page to me.
In the metrics I am weighing this week at Quail Hollow, Day either has the edge on Fowler or is slightly worse. Let’s start with their long-term form in the FantasyLabs Player Models (Day listed first):
- Adjusted Round Score: 68.2 vs. 68.1
- Driving Distance: 307.3 vs. 300.4
- Putts Per Round: 28.3 vs. 29.0
- Scrambling: 62.3% vs. 61.4%
- Birdies per tournament: 16.3 vs. 15.9
- Adjusted strokes on par 4s: -1.2 vs. -1.8
- Adjusted strokes on par 5s: -5.7 vs. -4.9
Par-5 scoring is one of the metrics I am weighing the most since all four par 5s have birdie rates above 30%, per Fantasy National. Day has the edge in that metric by almost a full stroke.
Furthermore, Day has been superior to Fowler in 2019 with his game off the tee, which is crucial at a long track like this one. In his 28 rounds with Shotlink data available this year, Day ranks fifth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, while Fowler ranks 37th, respectively.
In the FantasyLabs Player Models, Day also has higher outright odds to win, along with higher odds to finish inside the top 10, yet he’s still a +110 underdog to Fowler.
I’ll back Day at +110, but I wouldn’t bet it any worse than +105 given the close matchup.
At the time of writing, this is the only matchup I’ve got on my card, but I may be adding more in the app before the tournament starts.
Note: Strokes Gained data via Fantasy National