2021 RBC Heritage Picks & Best Bets: Kim, Lowry & Kirk Stand Out at Harbour Town
Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images. Pictured: Shane Lowry
It was not a good week at the Masters for me. I loved the +4000 to +5000 range and bet a handful of guys in that tier, but I never got to Hideki Matsuyama.
Matsuyama is always a popular pick for Augusta National because of his iron play and around-the-green game, so I’m sure many people reading this found their way to the Japanese star.
With the Masters in the rear-view mirror it’s now time for one of my favorite betting events on the TOUR schedule: The RBC Heritage. We were able to hit Webb Simpson at this event last year, so here’s hoping we can make it back-to-back.
The Pete Dye-designed Harbour Town is one of the more interesting stops on TOUR from a betting perspective. It’s a par 71 checking in at around 7,100 yards. Harbour Town has the smallest greens on TOUR, so iron play will be even more important than usual.
Wind is one of the primary defenses at this seaside South Carolina course, so you can expect some pretty difficult scoring conditions if things get blustery.
And finally it’s important to note that driving distance matters less at Harbour Town than just about any other track on TOUR. The long-hitters can still contend here, but precision off the tee tends to be more valuable than power at this track and that can lead us to find some decent value on the more accurate players down the board.
Dustin Johnson opened as the +1000 favorite off a missed cut in his Masters title defense. DJ still hasn’t figured out Harbour Town completely yet, finishing outside the top-15 each of the last three years.
Defending champ Webb Simpson is next in line at +1200. Simpson was solid at Augusta, coming in 12th, and this has obviously been a good spot for him in the past. As the week goes on, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pass DJ as the favorite.
Patrick Cantlay is the only golfer in the teens at +1600. The missed cut was a red flag for him, but Cantlay has never finished worse than seventh in three starts at Harbour Town.
Collin Morikawa, Daniel Berger, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton and Cameron Smith all close out this range in the +2000s. Of the group, Hatton is the one I’d keep an eye on. He was third here a year ago and is coming off his best Masters finish, tying for 18th.
I don’t bet Si Woo Kim too often, but I’m going to start my card with him this week. Kim has come close here in the past (he lost a playoff in 2018) and he’s really got his irons in check over the last few weeks. He struck the ball great at Augusta en route to a 12th-place finish.
Shane Lowry is next up at +5500. The Irishman is a good fit for any coastal track where the wind can whip up and he finished third here in 2019. Lowry’s game has been in decent shape over the last few weeks and, like Kim, was able to ride good iron play to a decent finish (21st) at Augusta.
I like Charley Hoffman at +6000. Hoffman is in a great run of form, highlighted by a second-place at Valero just two weeks ago. His results at Harbour Town are a mixed bag, especially in recent seasons, but he does own a pair of top-10 finishes at this track.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout will also be on my card at +7000. Bez has been playing consistently solid golf for six months now. He’s made 14 straight cuts worldwide and picked up a couple of wins in his native South Africa just before the calendar turned to 2021.
Harbour Town is a course that will help hide his weakness off the tee a bit and put the emphasis on the short game which is usually his strength.
We’ll also take a chance on Chris Kirk at +7500. Kirk hasn’t had much success here, but it’s a course that should fit his skillset. He’s riding good form with two top 10s in his last four starts, so I’ll hope that good play recently can override some mediocre history.
We’ve seen longshot winners here recently with Satoshi Kodaira and CT Pan, but I’ll pass on this range for now.
It was hard enough to keep the mid-tier to just five players with Paul Casey, Corey Conners, Kevin Na and Tommy Fleetwood all drawing interest, so instead of taking some fliers down here I’ll wait and see if any of the aforementioned guys get off to a slow start and drift into this range.
The RBC Heritage Card
- Si Woo Kim +5000 (.66 units)
- Shane Lowry +5500 (.6 units)
- Charley Hoffman +6000 (.55 units)
- Christaan Bezuidenhout +7000 (.47 units)
- Chris Kirk +7500 (.44 units)
Total Stake: 2.72 units
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