AT&T Byron Nelson Betting Odds & Picks: Schwartzel, Kuchar & Gooch Show Value at TPC Craig Ranch
Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images. Pictured: Charl Schwartzel.
Abraham Ancer gave us a chance at Quail Hollow, but his late run came up just short against Rory McIlroy.
Now, the PGA Tour heads back to Texas for a final warm-up before the PGA Championship at the AT&T Byron Nelson.
We have another course change here as well. After a two-year stint at Trinity Forest, the tour moved the event to the relatively unknown TPC Craig Ranch. Craig Ranch has seen a bit of a run on the Korn Ferry Tour at times (it hosted the tour's championship in 2008 and 2012), but this will be its first event on the PGA Tour.
The Course
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,468-yard Par 72 on the outskirts of the Dallas metro area. There's a chance the Tour could drop this to a Par 71, converting the 12th hole from a par-5 to a par-4.
Again, we don't have much to go off of this week outside of two old Korn Ferry events. The winners won't ring a bell to most either with Matt Bettencourt taking the 2008 title and Justin Bolli coming out on top in 2012.
Bettencourt and Bolli were both above-average iron players and had good short games. So, that's where I'll be looking this week. Off the tee, Bettencourt was relatively long. Bolli was shorter and more of an average accuracy guy.
Among the players who may be more familiar to bettors, James Hahn finished second in 2012, Adam Hadwin ended in third and Russell Henley wrapped up in sixth. In 2008, Marc Leishman was the only player who still has a Tour card inside the top 10. He finished seventh.
The Favorites
With Dustin Johnson's withdrawal on Monday, there was a shift at the top of the odds board.
Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau sit as co-favorites at +800 with Jordan Spieth right behind at +1100.
Daniel Berger was slashed to +1700 and is the only other player under +2000.
Hideki Matsuyama, Brooks Koepka, Scottie Scheffler, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Will Zalatoris all make up that next range of golfers between +2000 and +2500.
Of the group, Scottie Scheffler was the one I had my eyes on this week. The course should be a good fit, and we've seen him pop up recently in Texas before with a strong showing at the WGC Match Play in Austin.
The Mid-Tier
With another major looming next week, these are always the toughest events to get a real grasp on. We have a tough time gauging the motivations of the top guys. In these events, it seems like if they get off to great starts, then they'll hang around. If not, they're more than content to take the extra two days off after Friday and get some extra prep work done.
I'm going to take a look at Charl Schwartzel here at +7000. Schwartzel has finished inside the top 25 in three straight events and made six straight cuts over the past couple of months. He was also fourth last week in approach at the Wells Fargo. He's had the game trending in the right direction now for awhile
We'll also take a stab on Matt Kuchar here at +8000 on BetMGM. Kuchar hasn't really played much of a factor since the restart about a year ago, but he's found his game the past month.
Kuchar has three top-20s in his last four starts, including a couple of solid results in Texas with a third at Match Play and a 12th at Valero. With his approach game coming back around and his usual strength on the greens, this could be a spot for the veteran to play well.
I'll also go with Talor Gooch at +8000 on DraftKings. He's put up some good ball-striking events with the irons in the past couple of months and has found some success with his putter as well.
He should also be more familiar than most with the course, playing it a handful of times during Korn Ferry Q school. Overall, the form has been solid, as he's made seven of the last eight cuts. It's just one of those situations where we see a player who is doing everything well at times but just hasn't gotten it all going on the same week yet.
The Longshots
I'll open up here with another veteran who has found a nice run of form recently in Brandt Snedeker at 125/1 on DraftKings. Snedeker has finished 11th or better in three of his last four starts and had a few good weeks with the approach game. He's usually one of the best putters around, so I'll take a shot at a large number that he can line those two things up this week.
My last play with be Satoshi Kodaira at 400/1 on DraftKings. This is really just off last week.
Kodaira had no business being near the top of the board at Quail Hollow, but he managed to gain strokes both off the tee and on approach for the week. The irons deserted him on Sunday, but overall, it turned out to be a solid event for the past Harbour Town winner.
He's shown he can come through at long odds when everyone is recovering from a major. Maybe he can duplicate that with everyone looking ahead to one.
The AT&T Byron Nelson Card
- Charl Schwartzel +7000 (.47 units)
- Matt Kuchar +8000 (.41 units)
- Talor Gooch +8000 (.41 units)
- Brandt Snedeker +12500 (.26 units)
- Satoshi Kodaira +40000 (.08 units)
Total Stake: 1.63 units
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