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RSM Classic Betting Guide: Finding the Right Longshots in a Weak Field

Nov 14, 2018 10:58 PM EST
  • The 2018 RSM Classic features a weak field headlined by tournament favorites Webb Simpson and Cameron Champ.
  • The RSM Classic is a good tournament to back longshots and there's value on players like Peter Uihlein and Sam Burns.

Another week, another close call.

Danny Lee matched the course record for us at the Mayakoba Classic and usually that would be enough to get a win, but Matt Kuchar had other plans unfortunately setting a new target for the tournament at 22-under.

So the search for a winner continues as the fall swing comes to a close this week at the RSM Classic.

This tournament features a very weak field headlined by Webb Simpson and in the past has served as a great spot for players to break through on tour. In fact, five of the last six champions claimed their first PGA tour titles here at Sea Island.

The Course

The RSM will be split over two courses for the first two round, Sea Island’s Seaside and Plantation tracks.

Seaside is a Par 70 that measures 7,005 yards and will be the course for three of the four rounds. It doesn’t require too much length off the tee and really puts the emphasis on the approach game. Unless the wind blows pretty hard, we can expect the winner to get near 20-under par for the week.

The players will also see the Plantation course for a round on either Thursday or Friday. It’s a Par 72 that checks in at 7,058 yards. This is the easier of the two courses and provides some value in the first round leader markets. The two extra par 5s will give players more birdie opportunities.

Most books won’t offer this bet because of the advantage half the field receives, but we can usually count on Sportsbook to post numbers in this situation. The value comes from the lack of accounting for which course the players are on. The first round odds are simply a reflection of the players overall capability of winning the tournament.  For example, if two players are at +2500 to win, but are starting on the different course, they’ll still have the exact same number to lead the first round, usually in the +3000 range.

I like to invest a little extra in the multiple course tournaments to try and take advantage of these spots. It’s not a guarantee the leader comes from the Plantation course, but that half of the field does have a clear advantage.

The Favorites

As mentioned above, Webb Simpson headlines this field and is one of only two guys below +2000. The 33-year-old checks in at +900, while the rookie bombing sensation Cameron Champ is next at +1800. As per usual, no favorites for me this week so on to the mid-tier.

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Credit:

Ray Carlin, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Peter Uihlein

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