Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
- Using our Bet Labs software, we created a winning college football over/under betting system that targets top-30 rushing teams.
- When two such teams play each other, the under has gone 56.6% since 2005.
Sometimes, the simplest betting systems are the best systems. The beauty of Bet Labs’ software is that it allows users to apply more than 650 filters to find historically profitable angles, and ultimately create winning betting systems.
While more filters mean more options for analysis, one thing to keep in mind is that any system worth betting should make sense logically.
Basically, can you explain why the data says what it says?
Using Bet Labs’ stat filters, I analyzed whether there is value betting unders when two teams that effectively run the football face off. From a high level, this would make sense, as good rushing teams keep the clock moving, shortening the game and helping final scores stay under the closing total.
To start, I defined “effective rushing teams” as those that average 215 yards or more per game. Over the past two seasons, that’s the top 30 rushing offenses, on average, in terms of yards per game.
By simply looking at games in which both teams average 215 yards per game, the data quickly reveals an effective betting system. In these matchups, the under is 214-167-7 (56.2%) for a profit of 38.57 units and a return on investment (ROI) of 10% since 2005.
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Not only has this strategy provided profits over the entire sample of 18 seasons, but it’s been even more impressive lately, with six straight winning years and profits in nine of the past 10.
Last season was easily the most profitable, which actually concerned me a bit considering one stellar year could be skewing the overall results.
But even when removing 2017 from the overall sample, it remained quite impressive: From 2005-2016, games featuring strong rushing teams still went under the total more than 55% of the time for +24.95 units and a steady 7.5% ROI.
The historical results certainly make this system appealing, but the fact that it’s simple and intuitive makes it worth betting during the 2018 college football season.
Want to follow this system? Sign up for Bet Labs and get real-time matches for every game that fits this college football over/under betting system, including an enchanced version with one extra filter that improves the win rate to 60.3% and ROI to 16.8%.