Stuckey and I recently hopped on Action Network's "Big Bets on Campus" Podcast to talk shop for the college football season.
College football win totals were one of the variety of betting topics we dug through, which included first-year coaching impacts, transfers, top quarterbacks and more.
Check out a couple of plus-money college football win totals and NCAAF picks I locked in at BetMGM for the 2025 season.
College Football Win Totals for 2025
- Cal Under 5.5 Wins (+110)
- Sam Houston Under 4.5 Wins (+120)
Cal Golden Bears
Under 5.5 Wins (+110)
You can go a million different routes betting on win totals.
While I'd typically love to call out the next batch of sleepers who are primed to break through, my approach is more about fading teams from an asset standpoint.
My first play this season is the California Golden Bears under 5.5 wins, priced nicely at +110 on BetMGM.
While the ACC boasts a number of intriguing mid-tier teams this year, Cal doesn’t fit that mold.
If you’re feeling optimistic about Cal, last season was probably the best time to buy in. The Bears lose scrappy quarterback Fernando Mendoza to Indiana, while noteworthy playmakers like running back Jadyn Ott (Oklahoma) and wide receiver Nyziah Hunter (Nebraska) are also gone.
Last season, Cal excelled in timely takeaways and sneaking up on teams. However, it won’t have that edge in 2025.
Head coach Justin Wilcox has yet to inspire confidence in long-term optimism, and current quarterback Devin Brown, a former Ohio State backup, doesn't really change that narrative for me.
The Bears have to travel the sixth-most miles of any team this season. Although their schedule avoids powerhouses like Clemson and Miami, I'm not sure I trust Cal as much as I do other ACC middlers.
Pick: Cal Under 5.5 Wins (+110)
Sam Houston Bearkats
Under 4.5 Wins (+120)
My next bet is also a fade, focusing on Sam Houston under 4.5. The departure of head coach KC Keeler, who was instrumental in SHSU’s recent success, leaves a huge question mark.
Keeler, a proven winner at multiple programs and the architect behind the Bearkats’ strong FCS and FBS transition, is now heading to Temple.
Sam Houston stumbled in its first FBS season at 3-9 but rebounded to 9-3 last year. Keeler was essentially automatic for a good season with the Kats, posting at least five wins in 10 of the program's last 11 seasons.
However, with the move to 2025, challenges mount.
New head coach Phil Longo, a respected offensive coordinator with a less-than-stellar head coaching resume (7-14 record at La Salle), inherits a team undergoing significant roster turnover, especially on defense.
Notably, Sam Houston’s defense, which ranked 12th nationally in turnover margin last season, is expected to drop off dramatically after a wave of transfers.
The team also faces a grueling travel schedule, flying nearly 8,000 miles — the fifth-most in college football — which could exacerbate growing pains.
Although the Bearkats surprised many by covering spreads last year, it was an obvious "buy" year in Keeler's second season at the FBS level. This season, though, they're ripe for regression, and I question if Longo's the right fit.
Pick: Sam Houston Under 5.5 Wins (+120)
