When Ohio State lost at home as a 19.5-point favorite to Michigan last November, there were rumors that Ryan Day could be on his way out.
Losing and losing often to “That Team Up North” ended John Cooper’s career in 2000 despite a .700 winning percentage in Big Ten play. He even finished inside the top 10 of the coaches poll in five of his last eight seasons on the job, but a 2-10-1 record against Michigan haunted Cooper and ultimately ended his coaching career altogether.
But we know that’s not how things played out for Day. He not only got a reprieve but was rewarded with a home playoff game in the first season of the College Football Playoff’s 12-team field.
Ohio State got hot in the playoffs, crushing Tennessee and Oregon before fending off late comeback attempts by Texas and Notre Dame en route to the program’s ninth national title.
It was the first in what I’m deeming the “Mulligan Era.”
In the first 154 years of college football, there was exactly one two-loss team that claimed an undisputed national championship. That was Les Miles’ LSU Tigers in 2007, a season that will go down in history as the most chaotic and upset-laden in the sport’s rich history.
But as soon as the power brokers in the sport saw fit to expand the postseason from four teams to 12, we immediately got another two-loss champion.
Ohio State may have been the first beneficiaries of this mulligan environment, but it certainly won’t be the last.
With that in mind, here are three teams that are likely to absorb one or two losses this fall that shouldn’t be written off by the betting public. Let's dive into some college football odds and NCAAF picks for the 2025 season.
LSU Tigers
19-1 to Win National Championship
The Tigers’ schedule is brutal. They open in Death Valley — not theirs but Clemson’s — and it only gets more challenging from there.
Roadies to Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma present significant challenges for the Bayou Bengals, as do home tilts with Florida and Texas A&M.
We nearly saw a 9-3 team make the 12-team field last year in Alabama, and LSU has the strength of schedule to make history this season as a three-loss playoff entrant.
But even if the Tigers lose two games before Halloween, they have the coaching, quarterback play and overall talent to replicate Ohio State’s run if everything breaks right for Brian Kelly and company.
South Carolina Gamecocks
45-1 to Win National Championship
Here's another SEC team that draws Clemson in the nonconference. Pepper in road trips to LSU, Ole Miss and Texas A&M, and it’s easy to see why some projections are calling for the Gamecocks to finish 8-4.
But if we learned anything from last season, it’s that LaNorris Sellers is on the verge of superstardom.
The dual-threat dynamo had a pair of 100-plus yard rushing performances and torched Missouri through the air to the tune of 353 yards and five touchdowns.
If the Gamecocks drop a game or two early and their odds balloon into the 100-1 range, they're worth a flyer because they've proven how they can play well in November under Shane Beamer.
SC has upset three top-12 teams in November in the past three seasons.
Texas Longhorns
6-1 to Win National Championship
If Arch Manning struggles early in the season, the vultures are going to come out from every corner of the internet. That kind of toxic negativity has the potential to move the futures market.
He’ll have four new offensive linemen starting in front of him, and the Horns sit 103rd overall in returning production.
Patience will be required to unlock UT’s full potential.
What won’t wait is this daunting schedule that includes a road opener at Ohio State, a neutral-site showdown against Oklahoma, and daunting business trips to The Swamp and Sanford Stadium.
I’m a believer in Manning but want a number in the 15-1 range, so I’ll keep my powder dry and root for a setback or two for Steve Sarkisian’s bunch.
