There's very little value on the board when it comes to betting blue bloods in college football. On a weekly basis, bettors are paying a premium to back national brands like Alabama, Georgia, Notre Dame and Ohio State.
The same is true in the futures market, where preseason top-five teams are going off at 8-1 or shorter to win the national title. So, how can you zig when the market zags? By fading the defending national champions.
Let's dive into some college football futures and NCAAF picks for the upcoming 2025 season.
If the 2024 college football season had utilized any of the previous postseason formats, Ohio State would have been shut out from national title contention after its home loss to Michigan.
But Ryan Day and the Buckeyes got a mulligan, and when they teed that ball back up, they hit it straight down the fairway.
Their playoff run was virtually flawless, and as a result, the public seems to think they’re some kind of inevitability in the world of college football.
But I’m here to tell you, this team has more than a few red flags.
Let’s start with the schedule they’ll be drawing this fall.
They open against Texas, one of the few schools that can go blue-chip for blue-chip with Ohio State. They met in the College Football Playoff semifinals last season, and Texas was one yard away from tying the Buckeyes in the final minutes.
Now, the Longhorns have passed the torch to Arch Manning and are looking for revenge in the opener.
After a pair of layups against Grambling and Ohio, the Buckeyes hit the road three times in a four-week span, traveling to Washington, Illinois and Wisconsin.
The Huskies' offense looked reborn in their bowl against Louisville with Demond Williams Jr. at the helm. The highly-touted sophomore accounted for 422 total yards and five touchdowns. Jedd Fisch turned Noah Fifita into a star during his time at Arizona, and Williams could be in line for a similar jump this fall.
Next, the Fighting Illini should also be a tough out due to their program continuity. Illinois returns the third-most production, its starting quarterback, head coach and both coordinators.
After that road gauntlet is complete, OSU returns home to host Penn State. If the Nittany Lions' additions at wide receiver pan out, they may have their best offense since the Saquon Barkley days.
And then there’s the Michigan game looming large at the end of the Buckeyes’ schedule.
The Wolverines have won four straight in their series with the Buckeyes and have three months to break in mega recruit Bryce Underwood at quarterback. The highest-rated offensive commit in Michigan program history has drawn comparisons to Vince Young.
Texas, Penn State and Michigan present significant tests for Ohio State, while Washington, Illinois and Wisconsin have landmine potential, which brings us to Ohio State’s roster.
The Buckeyes return tremendously talented game-breakers on both sides of the ball. Jeremiah Smith is a preseason All-American and a Heisman hopeful at wide receiver. Caleb Downs was a unanimous All-American last season at safety.
But overall, there are a ton of new faces working their way into the Ohio State two-deep.
The Buckeyes rank 101st in returning production and will be handing the keys of the offense over to Julian Sayin, who has yet to make a college start (12 career pass attempts). Toss in three new starters on the offensive line and a new offensive line coach in Tyler Bowen, and there could be more empty drives than we’re used to seeing from Ohio State.
Speaking of coaching changes, Chip Kelly has returned to the NFL after unlocking every ounce of potential from Will Howard and the OSU attack last season during its CFP run.
The beauty of this bet is that the schedule falls in such a way that, should Ohio State lose its opener, you can hedge by playing it against Penn State and Michigan later in the season.
I’m playing this at any number 3-1 or longer.
Pick: Ohio State to Miss College Football Playoff (+340)
