College football win totals are now available for all 136 FBS teams. That means the season is inching closer as we enter the dog days of the offseason.
I circled two win totals right away, including a Power 4 pick in the Big Ten and a sleeper in the Sun Belt.
Let's dive into my college football win totals and NCAAF futures for 2025.
Northwestern Wildcats
Over 3.5 Wins (-130)
Here’s a little trade secret: When Northwestern has a down season, it’s time to tail them the following fall.
In the playoff era, Northwestern has posted five losing campaigns, including its most recent performance in 2024. The Wildcats have bounced back and surpassed their win total the following season three times out of four, cruising past their number by an average of three victories.
The public narrative is that Northwestern is too disadvantaged athletically to compete in the Big Ten.
You’ll never confuse the Wildcats' skill position talent with the likes of Ohio State or Penn State, but they have continuity on defense and a potential answer at quarterback.
Defensively, they return 62% of their statistical production, which ranks 35th nationally. They were stout against the run last fall and feature six seniors in their front seven with a wealth of experience.
Their pass defense, which was their undoing in 2024, has been addressed.
They nabbed former four-star recruit Dillon Tatum from Michigan State, and he’ll float between roles in the slot and safety. Fred Davis will step into a starting cornerback role after a stellar season at Jacksonville State. His 77.8 coverage grade from PFF would have made him the second-most effective defensive back on Northwestern’s roster last season.
If NW’s other starting cornerback, Josh Fussell, can build on a strong finish to his 2024 campaign, this unit may be feisty.
As for quarterback play, there’s nowhere to go but up. The Wildcats finished with the second-lowest passing score among P4 teams, per PFF, and threw four more interceptions than touchdowns.
Enter, Preston Stone.
The SMU transfer has experience (17 career starts), an impressive amount of production (4,030 passing yards, 41 total touchdowns), and great touch on his deep passes.
In his only full season as a starter at SMU, he threw for 1,399 yards on passes that traveled 20 or more yards through the air, which was the third-highest total in the country. He trailed only Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye in that department.
If he unlocks their vertical passing, this team will vie for a minor bowl invitation while cashing this over.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Over 4.5 Wins (-130)
ESPN’s Bill Connelly recently published an article detailing turnover luck. Unsurprisingly, the beneficiaries of flukey fumble and interception luck had great seasons last fall, namely Clemson, Indiana, and Vanderbilt.
The Tigers made the College Football Playoff by the skin of their teeth, Indiana finished inside the AP top 10 for the first time since 1967, and Vanderbilt upset a No. 1 team for the first time in program history.
At the bottom of the turnover luck rankings were a hodgepodge of cursed teams, including — you guessed it — Southern Miss.
Normal turnover misfortune would have dictated USM clocking in with a TO margin of -8.1, but the ball continually didn’t bounce its way en route to the nation’s worst TO margin (-19).
With a clean slate in 2025, I’m banking on a bounce-back from the Golden Eagles in the turnover department.
But this play is predicated on more than luck.
Southern Miss completely overhauled its program this offseason on all fronts. The Will Hall era is mercifully over, and in steps Charles Huff, fresh off a Sun Belt Championship.
Thirty-six players transferred in this offseason, more than half following Huff from Marshall.
The talent infusion has been drastic, and it starts with Braylon Braxton at quarterback. Everything clicked for the journeyman passer last fall as he won every start he made, while posting a 19:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
He earned SBC Newcomer of the Year honors and will be USM’s best passer since Nick Mullens left campus in 2017.
Speaking of quarterbacks, new field generals litter USM’s schedule, and by season’s end, it may face six first-year starters.
Toss in an FCS opponent and home tilts against Louisiana Monroe and a rebuilding Jacksonville State, and USM is poised to not only cruise past this win total but perhaps vie for the outright Sun Belt title at 25-1 odds.
