Friday’s MLB Over/Under: Will Twins’ Gibson Continue Breakout Season Against Tigers?

Friday’s MLB Over/Under: Will Twins’ Gibson Continue Breakout Season Against Tigers? article feature image

Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kyle Gibson

Betting odds: Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers

  • Over/Under: 8.5
  • First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network)
  • Probable Pitchers: Matt Boyd (7-10, 4.20 ERA) vs. Kyle Gibson (6-9, 3.49 ERA)

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 80-51-3, +23.6 units

Yesterday’s Result: Diamondbacks-Padres Under 8, Buchholz vs. Nix (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

It almost felt like déjà vu last night, as for the second consecutive game, one of the starting pitchers in our under was forced to exit without even getting through the first inning.

Thanks to some outstanding work from the Padres’ bullpen, however, as well as Clay Buchholz’s first complete game since 2015, the under would survive a 5-0 hole in the top of the first to ultimately prevail.

We’ll shoot for a win that involves a little less stress when the Tigers and Twins meet for the second time in their four-game series this evening.

The opener involved a boatload of runs, as Minnesota was victorious, 15-8, but I think tonight’s pitching matchup can bring that score down at least a few notches.

Gibson takes the ball for Minnesota and will look to continue his recent roll. The 30-year-old has notched a quality start in three of his last four outings, including in his most recent effort against these same Tigers last Saturday when he held them to just one run in seven sharp innings.

It was also his second quality start opposite Detroit this season in as many tries.

As noted a handful of times already this year, Gibson has been in the midst of a breakout season, owning career-best marks by a wide margin in ERA (3.49), WHIP (1.24), K/9 (8.51) and batting average against (.231).

Thus, I think we can continue to trust the 2009 first-round draft pick as he continues to establish himself as an upper-rotation arm in the Twins’ rotation.

It’s also worth pointing out that Gibson has found success when matched up against the most dangerous hitters in Detroit’s lineup.

Nicholas Castellanos, Victor Martinez and Jeimer Candelario are collectively a combined 21-for-86 (.244) in their careers against the 6-foot-6 right-hander.

On the hill for Detroit will be Boyd, who has great numbers against Minnesota. In 11 of his 14 outings against the Twins, Boyd has given up no more than three earned runs, which is the type of performance we’ll gladly take with an over/under as high as 8.5.

Overall, he’s 6-3 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.07 WHIP when taking on Minnesota. And just like his counterpart, Boyd fared well against this same club his last time out, beating the Twins with six innings of one-run ball.

Over his last five starts, he’s also been able to bring his season ERA down from 4.76 to 4.20, so we’ll bank on him to keep trending up.

It also figures to help that the Twins’ lineup does not look very intimidating. With their No. 6 through No. 9 hitters consisting of Jake Cave, Johnny Field, Ehire Adrianza and Bobby Wilson, Boyd can take advantage of a good chunk of that order.

You’re definitely going to want to wait up until first pitch to see if this over/under line goes up to 9. It more likely won’t, though, but that’s OK, as I’ll be on Under 8.5 if that is indeed the case.

Play: UNDER 8.5