MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies (Sunday, August 30)
Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Manny Machado.
Padres vs. Rockies Odds
|Padres Odds||-161 [Bet Now]|
|Rockies Odds||+145 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||13 (-110/-110) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||3:10 p.m. ET|
The San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies meet to decide Game 3 of their four-game series at Coors Field this afternoon. Each team has taken a game in Denver, but the Rockies hold a 3-2 edge in the season series.
Colorado has won four of its last five games, including a walk-off win last night after blowing a three-run lead.
Today’s matchup will feature San Diego right-hander Chris Paddack against Colorado rookie Ryan Castellani. This will be Paddack’s first start at Coors Field, and that’s a difficult ask for a pitcher who’s still looking to find some consistency this season.
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It took him four starts, but Ryan Castellani finally got his first major league win. He did it in his home state of Arizona after going six innings on two-run ball. Colorado’s bullpen then finished the job by putting up three scoreless frames after Castellani’s departure. A win under his belt could help to relax Castellani even more in his starts moving forward.
Castellani comes into this game at 1-1 with a 3.54 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. His last appearance marked his first six-inning outing as he’s slowly been building up his endurance. It will be interesting to see how Castellani evolves as a pitcher, particularly in his home park: Coors Field. We’ve witnessed the Colorado pitching staff favor changeups, and Castellani is no exception.
According to Baseball Savant, Castellani is throwing his changeup 20.8% of the time, and batters are only hitting .125 against the pitch. Castellani also throws his sinker 21.8% of the time, and opposing batters have managed only .071 against it.
His 6.29 FIP does point to some regression in the future — and much of that is due to his 2.21 HR/9 ratio. Fly balls currently represent 43% of Castellani’s batted balls, and there is a chance that even more of those balls will leave the yard as the season progresses.
My biggest concern for the rookie pitcher is his 3.1 BB/9. Castellani is currently stranding 93.3% of the runners who reach base. It won’t be easy to maintain those Houdini-type numbers throughout the rest of the season.
San Diego Padres
You have to wonder if Chris Paddack is going through a bit of a sophomore slump. In his 2019 rookie year, he went 9-7 with a 3.33 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
This season he’s 2-3 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.
It’s not every day thst you see a pitcher with a 1.23 WHIP and a 5.15 ERA. This tells me there is more to the story, and it likely has to do with the opposing team scoring in bunches.
Paddack has already given up 10 home runs in just 36.2 innings. His 5.48 FIP suggests that at this rate we could still see his ERA tick up even more.
There’s certainly reason for concern here: Paddack’s 2.45 HR/9 ratio could be problematic in a hitter’s park like Coors Field.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The public seems to be piling on the Padres as 62% of the tickets are being written in their favor. This looks to me like a great spot to be a contrarian. My model makes San Diego a -142 favorite with the Rockies a +128 underdog.
BetMGM is currently trading the favorite at -161 with the Rockies at +145.
That gives me a significant advantage with the underdog at the books. Considering that I was already leaning in that direction, I’m happy to be getting even more value on the dog in this spot.
Make no mistake about it, the Padres have struggled on their trips to Colorado. Dating back to 2010, the Padres are 66-88 in Colorado for a loss of 9.61 units. If we limit our query to only go back to 2019, we find that San Diego is 5-10 in Colorado for a loss of 5.52 units.
Given Paddack’s issues giving up the long ball, combined with the Padres struggles at Coors Field, I think the dog is offering up great value in this spot. I’ll take the Rockies to make it two in a row over the Padres.
The Pick: Rockies moneyline +145 (Play down to +128)