Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 8/6: How to Bet Zack Greinke in His Astros Debut

Credit:

Troy Taormina, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Zack Greinke

Aug 06, 2019, 01:10 PM EDT
  • Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
  • He analyzes Tuesday's slate of games, including how to bet Rockies-Astros (8:10 p.m. ET) and Giants-Nationals (9:45 p.m. ET).
  • Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.

Zack Greinke will make his first start for the Houston Astros (73-40) on Tuesday. His new club paces the AL West by nine games, but they are essentially tied with the Yankees (73-39) for home-field advantage in the AL playoffs, so don’t expect the Astros to take their foot off of the gas pedal.

Greinke will debut at home in an interleague matchup against the Colorado Rockies (52-60), a team that he has already faced three times in 2019.

He typically pitches well against all NL West opponents, going 133-73 (64.6%, +27 units, 13.1% ROI) on the full-game moneyline, and his history against Colorado (13 wins – tied for most against any opponent; 5.59 K/BB – 3rd best amongst any opponent) should fill Greinke with confidence as he hopes to make a good first impression with the Astros.

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