Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 7/21: Can Giants’ Conner Menez Top Mets in MLB Debut?

Credit:

Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Stephen Vogt and Alex Dickerson

  • Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
  • He analyzes Sunday's slate of games, including how to bet Giants-Mets (4:05 p.m. ET).
  • Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
We could be in for a relatively chalky Sunday, with six favorites listed at -190 or higher on the board. Though I see a lot of line value in the market, I was pretty hesitant about selecting many of the potential moneyline plays — I don’t like most of the matchups.
That being said, the Orioles and Royals are in extremely contrarian spots against divisional opponents, and while I don’t typically bet those teams, I do think that one of the two is going to pull an upset this afternoon.

You should note that Luke Voit took a fastball in the mouth yesterday, and still stayed in the game to score a run:

The dude is a savage in the box.

Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model

At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 0-5 against full-game moneylines and 2-2 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).

My plays went 4-3, and I finished up 0.39 units for the day.

It was an extremely positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).

I gained 33 cents against the Giants moneyline (-119 to -152), 27 cents against the Twins F5 moneyline (-137 to -164), 22 cents against Arizona’s F5 moneyline (-140 to -162), and 20 cents against Arizona’s full-game moneyline (-130 to -150).

Two of the three unders that I played moved my direction – from 10.5 to 10 and 11 to 10 – while the third moved up one half of a run from 12 to 12.5.

MLB Betting Model for Sunday, July 21

All odds as of Sunday morning (view live MLB odds). Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Sunday. 

Today, the model recommends seven full-game moneyline and five moneylines for the first five-innings (F5).

As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Diamondbacks, Giants, Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Royals, and Tigers as full-game plays. The model also likes the Marlins, Orioles, and Rockies, in addition to the Rangers as F5 plays.

As I mentioned earlier, I’m hesitant to make many of these plays today. The Giants are the only play that I have made thus far, though I am still considering the Diamondbacks Royals, and Orioles.

The Giants called up prospect Conner Menez to start Sunday’s game. The lefty had a 123:36 strikeout to walk ratio over 95 innings between Double-A and Triple-A this season.

He has averaged 10.0 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 throughout his minor league career and led all minor league left-handers with 171 strikeouts in 135.1 innings in 2018.

Menez has a high-spin fastball (92-93 mph) that he can spot to both sides of the plate or generate whiffs with upstairs, an average slider and changeup, and a fringe curveball.

Steamer projects Menez for a 4.25 ERA at the MLB level for the remainder of the 2019 season.

I also want to touch on the Padres new pitchers briefly, since they have added a bevy of prospects (including second baseman Luis Urias) to their major league roster over the past few days.

Let’s start with Andres Munoz, who has jumped off the screen more than any new relief pitcher that I have watched in 2019:

The 20-year-old righty has the look of a future closer with his wicked stuff. He recorded a 14.6 K/9 in the minor leagues this season, striking out 58 batters in 35.2 innings.

Bear in mind, Munoz is four years younger than average Double-A player, and seven years younger than the average Triple-A player.

The Padres also called up 20-year-old lefty Adrian Morejon, and his 6-foot-8 Cuban compatriot Michel Baez.

Morejon will make his major-league debut against the Cubs on Sunday. Per MLB pipeline, he is the No. 48 prospect in MLB.

He throws a big fastball (93-96 mph) alongside an above-average curveball, a knuckle-changeup, and a standard changeup.

He is exceptionally polished for such a young pitcher, and should only continue to improve as he refines his command — Morejon projects as a mid-rotation starter, with the upside of a No. 2 pitcher.

Steamer projects him for a 3.88 ERA at the MLB level for the remainder of the 2019 season.

Michael Baez ranks as the No. 70 prospect in MLB and the 23-year-old is being promoted after just 45.1 innings at Double-A.

The Padres clearly don’t want their top pitching prospects wasting bullets in the minors, and you have to respect their aggressiveness as an organization in an era where the other 29 teams care mainly about service time relative to team control.

Baez has a big fastball (98 mph), a plus slider, an above-average changeup, and an average curveball. Concerns regarding his prospect status stem from mechanical and health issues due to his large body and long limbs.

His velocity and command can diminish when he tired and throws across his body rather than repeating his delivery, but when Baez is on, he is an intimidating presence:

The Padres organization is loaded with young talent, and by bringing a majority of their young core up together in 2019 their chances to contend in 2020 only increase.

Bets (So Far) for July 21

  • San Francisco Giants (-120) Game Moneyline
  • Under 10.5 (-110), Colorado at NY Yankees
  • Under 13 (-120), Boston at Baltimore
  • Under 11 (-120), Philadelphia at Pittsburgh
  • Under 9.5 (120), Texas at Houston
  • Under 10.5 (-108), LA Angels at Seattle
  • Under 11 (-115), Washington at Atlanta

Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Sunday, July 21.

Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 7/21

Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.

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