MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Cubs-Rockies, 2 Other Monday Games

MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Cubs-Rockies, 2 Other Monday Games article feature image
Credit:

Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chicago Cubs catcher Willson Contreras (40) and relief pitcher Steve Cishek (41)

  • Wiseguys are betting a trio of MLB games tonight, headlined by Cubs-Rockies at 8:40 p.m. ET.
  • Sharps are also getting down on Diamondbacks-Phillies (7:05 p.m. ET) and Nationals-White Sox (8:10 p,m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.

The weekend is over and it’s back to the grind for sharps and squares. While the gambling universe is laser-focused on tonight’s do-or-die NBA Finals Game 5 between the Warriors and Raptors, wiseguys remain quietly committed to maximizing their edge on the diamond.

After analyzing Monday’s short nine-game schedule using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on a trio of MLB games.


>> All odds as of 2:15 p.m. ET.  Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.


Arizona Diamondbacks (34-32) @ Philadelphia Phillies (37-28)

Taylor Clarke (1-2, 4.43 ERA) vs. Jerad Eickhoff (3-3, 4.14 ERA)
7:05 p.m. ET

Casual bettors love betting favorites, home teams and big-market clubs with star players. The Phillies check off all of those public boxes tonight. So of course the sharps see value on the red-hot Diamondbacks, contrarian road dogs aiming for their fifth straight win.

This game opened with Philadelphia listed as a -135 road favorite. Currently 65% of bets are laying the moneyline price with the Phils, yet this line has barely budged.

Normally, a team receiving two-thirds of bets will see the line move in its favor. The fact that we haven’t seen that happen indicates a sharp “line freeze” on the D-backs, with books reluctant to hand out more plus-money to wiseguys buying low on the road dogs.

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed sharps hammer the Snakes, triggering market-wide steam that overrode the heavy Phillies betting and kept the line stagnant. We haven’t seen any conflicting moves (or buyback) on the Phils.

A few added bonuses for sharps sweating Arizona:

  • The D-backs are road dogs with a high total (9.5), a profitable spot since 2005.
  • Arizona also has a better run-differential than Philadelphia (+56 vs. +24).
  • The Snakes own the third-best road record (20-16) in the National League.

Sharp angle: Diamondbacks (stayed at +125)

Washington Nationals (30-35) @ Chicago White Sox (31-33) 

Anibal Sanchez (1-6, 4.19 ERA) vs. Odrisamer Despaigne (no record)
8:10 p.m. ET

Conventional wisdom is created based on public perception, but it isn’t always true. Take, for instance, this under-the-radar Interleague matchup on the South Side.

Average Joes see “Nationals” and “White Sox” and what’s the first thing that comes to mind? The White Sox stink, so the value has to be with Washington, right? But that actually isn’t the case.

A $100 bettor has lost $859 betting the Nationals every game this season, while a $100 bettor has won $553 betting the White Sox every game. This is how false narratives create value.

This game opened with Washington listed as a -153 road favorite. Currently 60% of bets are taking the Nats, yet we’ve seen the line remain virtually static across the market. This is another example of a sharp line freeze, with books worried about gifting more plus-money to wiseguys buying low on Chicago.

The South Siders are getting only 40% of bets but 70% of dollars, another sign of big wagers backing the home dogs.

Chicago also fits the profitable Bet Labs PRO system Average AL Teams vs. NL (64.2%, +65.88 units won, 11.6% return on Investment since 2005).

Sharp angle: White Sox (stayed at +141)

Chicago Cubs (37-27) @ Colorado Rockies (33-31)

Yu Darvish (2-3, 4.88 ERA) vs. German Marquez (6-3. 4.07 ERA)
8:40 p.m. ET

It’s not often that wiseguys get a chance to bet against the public, grab plus-money and back the better, hotter team. But Average Joes are affording wiseguys the rare value opportunity tonight at Coors Field.

This game opened with the Rockies listed as -135 home favorites and the Cubs +125 underdogs.

Casual bettors love the idea of backing Colorado at home and fading Yu Darvish, so of course 60% of bets are rushing to the window to back Rocky Mountain High.

However, despite Colorado receiving the majority of bets, we’ve actually seen this line tumble away from the Rockies (-135 to -126) and toward the Cubbies (+125 to +116).

What caused oddsmakers to move the line toward the unpopular side? Sharp action, of course.

We’ve tracked three separate steam and reverse line moves on the Cubs, with sharps hammering CHC twice at +128 and again at +120.

The Cubs are also receiving a higher share of money (55%) compared to bets (40%), further evidence of pro wagers in their favor. Chicago also has a +66 run differential this season, while Colorado is only +9.

Sharp angle: Cubs (moved from +125 to +116)

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