We're so back baby! The college basketball season is here, and this article is focused on getting you up to speed on some of the more under-the-radar tempo changes that we can expect to see from teams around the country.
You can use this info early in the non-conference slate to attempt to get a beat on mispriced totals, as books are often slower to adjust on teams from smaller leagues that are going through a tempo change.
While this information alone isn't enough to constitute a play, it can be valuable early on, as the books may not adjust totals enough to over-compensate for varying styles of play.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Arkansas State slowed down the tempo considerably in Sun Belt play last season, as only six of its 18 conference games were played at a pace that exceeded 70 possessions.
Bryan Hodgson was of the Nate Oats discipleship, but he left Jonesboro over the summer to take the job at South Florida.
In comes Ryan Pannone, who's also from Oats' staff. He wants to push the tempo by shooting 3s early in the possession or by attacking the rim and getting to the foul line.
With 14 new players all learning a new higher-pressure defensive system, there's surely to be some early-season breakdowns on that end. However, I would expect the offense to come together early for the Red Wolves, and contests against Ohio and Missouri State could be spots to attack the over.
Cleveland State Vikings
Cleveland State will have one of the more drastic pace changes in the mid-major ranks. Daniyal Robinson spent three years with the Vikings and never ranked higher than 174th in the KenPom Adjusted Tempo metric.
Last season, the Vikings were 305th in pace, but Robinson is off to North Texas. In comes Rob Summers, who's ready to push the pace. Summers spent last season at Missouri, where the Tigers excelled in transition and were very efficient offensively.
Summers wants to play fast and have a position-less offense, which allows for a creative, free-flowing nature with the ball. In other words, the players can shoot from anywhere on the floor.
Guards Jaidon Lipscomb (previously of FIU) and Ice Emery (Western Carolina) should thrive in this offense, and with early-season contests against Loyola Chicago, Kent State and Valpo on the docket, I'll seek to bet overs with this group.
IU Indianapolis Jaguars
IU Indianapolis is again starting over with another head coach, this time pulling from the Division II ranks to hire Ben Howlett this offseason.
Howlett is an offensive mad man, with routine outputs exceeding 100 points with his West Liberty offensive style, which he plans to implement immediately with the Jaguars.
The pace will be frenetic and the defense will press full court throughout.
We saw IU Indianapolis rank just 307th nationally in adjusted pace last season, per KenPom, so this change will be significant.
The offense will be fun to watch, but the defense could get torched early, and we could see a lot of layups and dunks at the other end for the Jaguars' opponents.
With Ohio State, Long Island, Charleston Southern and Alabama State on the slate before Thanksgiving, I'll seek to hit the high side with these guys early this season.
Central Michigan Chippewas
Central Michigan wasn't overly fun to watch last season, as its offense was exceptionally inefficient and the pace was middling. That was a far cry from the Keno Davis years, when Central Michigan routinely played in games that exceeded 80 possessions.
We should see a fun style in Mount Pleasant this season, as Andy Bronkema comes in from just down the road (Ferris State). We should see the Chips use a ton of bodies and play a more up-tempo style, while routinely pressing on the defensive end.
Teams that want to run with the Chips should see some higher point totals. This might not show up early on, as Central Michigan plays Appalachian State, Bradley, South Alabama and Coppin State — all of which are bottom-100 teams in terms of Adjusted Tempo.
However, there will be some non-conference spots to pick off some low Central Michigan overs after that, starting when it takes on Marquette.
Sacramento State Hornets
The Sacramento State Hornets are making quite a “buzz” this offseason, as this group has hired Mike Bibby (yes, that Mike Bibby) back to Sac-Town to lead the way.
Shaquille O’Neal has been hired to work with the team, and these two plan to change the culture and bring winning and fun to Sacramento, two things that haven't been tied to the program as of late.
Bibby directly stated he was hired to win, and he plans to do so while running a fast-tempo, NBA-style, free-flowing offense.
Bibby wants to be able to have some versatility in his lineups, rotating between a four-guard operation with multiple slashers and multiple point guards.
This will be fairly position-less basketball and should be a very exciting change, especially given that Sacramento State has ranked in the bottom 50 in tempo nationally for the last five years.
Early bouts against non-Division I opponents might spoil the secret, but if not, I'll be looking at games against Santa Barbara, UC Davis, Presbyterian, UCLA and Pacific as "over" spots.
Murray State Racers
Murray State is a proud program that's been stuck in mediocrity for some time now, uncharted waters for a team that's been nationally ranked and a force in the NCAA Tournament numerous times.
Two straight sub-par seasons saw Steve Prohm hit the road, but in comes Ryan Miller, who's of the Greg McDermott offensive mindset.
To state it explicitly, Murray State operated at a snails pace the last two years, with sub-300-level tempos.
That's going to change drastically in 2025-26, as Miller wants to push the pace and use more spacing on offense. That will give his players more liberty to execute on the fly rather than setting up in the half-court and ascertaining the defensive set before making a move.
With early-season games against Omaha, SMU, Nicholls and Little Rock, we should see points-a-plenty in Racer games.
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
Oral Roberts has been a consistent player in the Summit League for some time, but Russell Springmann could never continue the wild success of Paul Mills. In comes Kory Barnett, who looks to immediately infuse energy and life back into the Golden Eagles' program.
They have an influx of new talent in Tulsa, including Laymen McGrady — son of NBA legend Tracy McGrady — and transfers from Loyola Chicago and Oklahoma State.
Barnett says he wants his team to play blazing fast and to be as aggressive as possible in putting pressure on the opposition at the rim. With this new aggressive system, we can expect two things on the regular from Oral Roberts: pace and fouls.
I would expect up-and-down games from the Golden Eagles early, and the aggressive defensive style could routinely result in a ton of foul shots.
With Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, South Florida and Prairie View A&M on the docket, I'll look at this team as an “over” squad to back in the non-conference.
UIC Flames
UIC is the first team I'll talk about here that seeks to slow it down this season. Rob Ehsan saw his 2024-25 team play at a higher tempo than any of his UAB teams did.
This roster is made up almost entirely of low-level transfer talent, so the Flames won't have as much firepower on offense as last season.
Ehsan spent the summer honing in on in-game situational coaching and defense and has said that he wants this team to be gritty, defensive-minded and more physical.
I'm going to look at the under in games against Detroit, Oregon State and Robert Morris.
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Stephen F. Austin was a strong defensive team last year that ranked in the top 60 in both points per possession and turnovers forced per 100 possessions. Now they've hired Matt Braeuer of the Grant McCasland coaching tree.
His focus was immediately reinforcing the defensive, physical nature of this team while bringing some of the principles from his time at North Texas and Texas Tech under McCasland.
This team is void of offensive talent, and even a small uptick in pace shouldn't inflate the offensive scoring numbers too much. Stephen F. Austin ranked bottom-five in Division I in turnover percentage, 3-point percentage and free-throw percentage last season.
While the offense develops, this team will be built on defense. Early-season games against Rice, Abilene Christian and Fresno State should be slow burning grinders, so I'll look at the under in those matchups.
