We have a tradition before every college football season here at Action Network: a Group of Five draft.
Which G5 teams are most likely to make the College Football Playoff in 2025-26? Group of Five experts Mike Calabrese and Joshua Nunn are here to answer that very question. Each expert drafted five teams that they think have the best chance to go all the way.
Let's dive into our college football draft and NCAAF picks for some preseason G5 action.
Editor's Note: This draft took place on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast prior to Jake Retzlaff's commitment to Tulane. The Green Wave would now be considered a top-four pick by Calabrese and Nunn.
1
Boise State Broncos
Joshua Nunn: Given the nature of the draft and the teams that have the best chance to make the College Football Playoff, I'm going to go with Boise State for my first pick. The Broncos have the shortest odds of any G5 team to make the CFP for the second season in a row.
Boise State’s in a pretty good spot up front with their offensive line looking solid. The Broncos have to say goodbye to Ashton Jeanty, but there’s some real optimism brewing in the running back room.
Maddux Madsen is back at quarterback, which should help keep things steady. Plus, their secondary looks like it’s taken a step forward this year.
They’ve got some nice home games lined up against UNLV, Colorado State and Fresno State — all winnable matchups that should keep them locked in during conference play. Realistically, I’m expecting Boise State to finish at worst 10-2 this season.
2
UTSA Roadrunners
Mike Calabrese: I’m rolling with UTSA as the No. 2 overall pick this year.
Everyone’s on board for the offense — this era of G5 football has never seen anything quite like it.
The Roadrunners return all 11 starters, including De'Corian "JT" Clark, who’s coming back from some tough knee injuries. Fingers crossed he gets back to full health and can contribute right away.
Offensively, everything looks solid. Owen McCown is a guy to watch at quarterback.
UTSA was red-hot by the end of last season, going 5-2 down the stretch and nearly pulling off an upset against Army, which went on to win the AAC. With its offense poised to be really dynamic, the Roadrunners a legit threat.
On the defensive side, things are trickier.
Jess Loepp, their defensive coordinator, has a big job ahead. He’s basically got to rebuild this defense from scratch since only one consistent contributor is back. He’s done this before, though. Losing back-to-back AAC Defensive Players of the Year hasn’t stopped him from cobbling together a workable defense in the past.
Now, here’s the real question: can UTSA throw a scre into Texas A&M?
The Roadrunners don’t even have to beat the Aggies outright in the opener. Think about Boise State last year — it scared Oregon, and that was enough to stake a claim on the national scene.
UTSA could do something similar, especially considering A&M has struggled to close out games against lesser teams recently. Last year, it let Bowling Green, Arkansas and Auburn hang around way too long, dropping some winnable games.
A&M’s got the talent, no doubt, but UTSA might just find a sweet spot to catch them off guard. This group is full of Texas kids who were overlooked by the big programs, including A&M’s deep pockets. Expect them to bring premium effort.
All things considered, UTSA is shaping up as a serious team to watch.
3
Toledo Rockets
Calabrese: Jason Candle has been a head coach I haven’t been super impressed with over the years. In the MAC, he’s often seemed like he’s done less with more talent.
But this year, he’s got a lot to work with, especially at quarterback.
Beyond Tucker Gleason, the Rockets boast some key offensive weapons like wide receiver Trayvon Rudolph and running back Chip Trayanum. That gives them some real explosiveness both in the passing and running game.
On top of that, their secondary looks like it could be pretty solid.
Now, they open the season against Kentucky. Here’s the thing — after that hot streak a few years ago where Mark Stoops’ Kentucky team started 4-0 and looked like they were on the rise, things have cooled off.
Lately, Stoops has basically been a .500 coach. Kentucky’s in a bit of a pickle financially: it's debating whether to fire him and pay the buyout or just stick with him and use the money to pay players.
This wouldn’t be the case five years ago, but Stoops could be a lame duck this season.
Offensively, Kentucky doesn’t show signs of a big upgrade, but from a reputation standpoint, this Toledo team matches up pretty well. Last year, the Rockets pulled something similar on the road when they took down an underwhelming SEC squad in Mississippi State and beat them soundly.
So, when it comes to whether Toledo can actually pull off a win against Kentucky, the mental hurdle seems cleared. It believes it can win, and that mindset matters a lot.
Considering how some conferences like the American or Mountain West can send teams to bowls with a couple losses, Toledo’s in a strong spot if it can grab this win. That’s why I’m picking the Rockets third overall this season.
4
Memphis Tigers
Nunn: I’m going with Memphis this season. Despite losing some offensive weapons, I think it's set up for a strong year.
One of the biggest advantages Memphis has is its NIL backing — it leads the Group of Five with its deal from FedEx, which really helps with recruiting and overall program momentum.
Looking at the Tigers' schedule, it’s fairly favorable. They get to host a lot of the tougher AAC opponents, including South Florida, Tulane and Navy. Hosting those teams is huge because it gives Memphis the chance to notch a big signature win.
One of the more interesting matchups also has to be Arkansas traveling to Memphis in what’s shaping up to be a tough midweek game for the Razorbacks. That could be a pivotal moment in the Tigers’ season.
If their transfer pickups pan out — especially quarterback Brendon Lewis from Nevada — and the QB play is solid, this team could be quite a headache for others.
It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if Memphis finds itself back in the AAC Championship game, with a potential rematch against UTSA looming on the horizon.
5
James Madison Dukes
Calabrese: I can’t resist the Matthew Sluka-Bob Chesney here.
Their defense is still pretty raw right now, and the early stretch isn’t exactly friendly with road games at Louisville and Liberty. But if they can hang tough against Louisville and get past Liberty, they’ll be in great shape going forward in the Sun Belt.
Sluka is just the kind of quarterback Chesney’s offense was built for. Chesney loves to use that deep backfield and lean heavily on numbers advantage.
When the QB runs 10-15 times a game, the team effectively adds an extra blocker, and we saw just how critical Sluka was to UNLV’s offense last year.
Sure, he’s not a downfield maestro, but that’s not on him in this offense. The coaches know their guy and will run the offense in a way that stresses defenses with all the read and option plays they have.
I’m going with JMU and hoping those new defensive faces step up. They did OK in the portal, filling some gaps, but losing key guys on the line is going to sting — that front has been their trademark since Curt Cignetti’s days and into Chesney’s tenure.
Those edge rushers off the line were a real terror come conference time. If some of the new guys can rise to the occasion, it’ll make a difference. But for now, I’m leaning JMU.
6
Liberty Flames
Nunn: Liberty is clearly a step above the rest of Conference USA this season. It'll likely be favored in 11 of its games, even when including its nonconference schedule.
What’s interesting is that Liberty isn’t just relying on what it has — it's been active in the portal, spending some real money to bring in players who fit perfectly with Jamey Chadwell's system.
A good example is Coastal Carolina quarterback Ethan Vasko, who should slot right into their offense.
Looking at the schedule and the fact that it doesn't face a ton of big-name opponents, Liberty is in a great position to run the table or come close to it.
An 11-1 or 12-0 season is definitely within reach. I really like how its schedule is set up, especially within Conference USA play, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it cruises through most of it.
7
Miami (OH) RedHawks
Calabrese: Dequan Finn is back in the MAC after spending a year down at Baylor, and honestly, it looks like this team’s in a pretty good spot.
The RedHawks have loaded up the wide receiver room with some serious talent, including transfers who bring power and potential.
What they need now is for one or two of those guys to really break out and make some noise. Their secondary is solid, the coaching staff is strong, and they have two games on the schedule where an upset feels possible.
Take Wisconsin, for example. The Badgers are switching up their offensive scheme from Phil Longo's "Dairy Raid" to a more physical, aggressive style under their new coordinator Jeff Grimes.
If you want to catch Wisconsin while it's still adjusting, early in the year is the time. A Miami win there would be a legit upset, but it could do wonders for its confidence in terms of winning the MAC and snagging that automatic bid.
Right after that, the RedHawks face Rutgers. Not exactly a cupcake but nothing to be scared of either. This is the kind of game that Chuck Martin’s teams usually thrive in — grinding out a 20-17 win or something similar, and just getting that W.
It’s about mucking up the game and coming out with the paycheck and the victory.
I might be a little MAC-heavy here. I probably have more love for this conference than most, but with the quarterbacks and coaches I’m seeing — plus the continuity and success they’ve built — I’m confident these teams won’t shy away from tough road games against Power 4 squads.
So, I’m rolling with the RedHawks.
8
Buffalo Bulls
Nunn: My surprise team in the MAC this season is the University at Buffalo.
Honestly, I think Buffalo is in a great spot to surprise a bunch of squads again this year. Last season was Pete Lembo’s first at the helm, and the program took some solid steps forward.
The Bulls added some interesting pieces through the portal too, including former Kansas State quarterback Ta’Quan Roberson. When healthy, Roberson flashes a lot of upside and reminds me a bit of what C.J. Ogbonna brought last year for Buffalo.
It lost a key linebacker in Shaun Dolak — the heart and soul of their defense last year — but the good news is almost the entire defensive unit is back across all three levels. By MAC standards, their depth on defense is pretty solid.
And if you know anything about Lembo-coached teams, special teams will be a focus once again.
Now, looking at the MAC schedule, there’s no reason Buffalo shouldn’t start conference play 6-0. It faces Kent State, Eastern Michigan, UMass, Akron, Bowling Green and Central Michigan — all games it should be favored in.
It really comes down to the last two home games, hosting Miami (OH) and Ohio. Those contests will likely decide if Buffalo earns a trip to Detroit for the MAC Championship.
Week 1 also presents a chance for a big signature win. The Bulls are 16.5-point underdogs on the road at Minnesota, but I wouldn’t be shocked if this scrappy Buffalo team puts up a spirited fight against PJ Fleck’s Gophers.
I like what I see here: solid defense, reliable special teams and a schedule that sets them up to surprise a few people in the MAC.
9
Navy Midshipmen
Calabrese: I’m going with Navy here. The Midshipmen bring back a ton on offense.
Sure, they need to replace some starters up front on the offensive line, but their schedule is almost like an extended preseason, giving them plenty of time to figure it out.
The key is quarterback Blake Horvath. Honestly, he’s right there with the greats Navy’s had, like Ricky Dobbs or Keenan Reynolds. I trust this guy with my life.
Plus, he has got all the pieces around him: their backfield is solid, and their fastest wide receiver is back out wide.
Now, the big question: Can they hold up defensively? Can they run the table in the AAC or maybe pull off a huge upset against Notre Dame?
Remember, last year Notre Dame ran all over them. So, now it’s on Drew Cronic to adjust and counter the counters. That’s the story coming into Year 2 of this system.
Last year, Navy caught a lot of teams off guard with its hybrid millennial wing T offense, but opponents have had a chance to study and respond.
I’m rolling with Navy as my sleeper pick. I really think it can snag nine or 10 wins. And if it wins the American Athletic Conference, they’re definitely in the conversation.
10
San Jose State Spartans
Nunn: I’m rolling with San Jose State in Year 2 of the spread-and-shred under Ken Niumatalolo and Craig Stutzmann. They made a complete 180 from what the Spartans were running before, and I honestly think they’ll improve within this system.
Walker Eget is back at quarterback, which does a lot to stabilize things, and they picked up some wide receivers from the portal who could really help absorb the loss of Nick Nash, who was an absolute generational talent but is no longer there.
The schedule looks reasonably manageable, too. They have a bye week during their trip to Texas, and outside of that, most of their Mountain West matchups should be competitive for this group.
What I like most is how San Jose State has truly embraced this identity under Niumatalolo's passing offense. We saw flashes of that last season, and I expect it'll build and improve on it.
Defensively, this team was scrappy, although the metrics are a bit surprising considering how well it played. The Spartans hung tough late in the season against Boise State and UNLV and even beat Stanford, which was impressive.
All in all, this feels like a group that’s going to have a say in the Mountain West race this year. We’re getting into the weeds of Group of Five football here, and while the Spartans might not be on the playoff radar, I’m taking them as my final pick.
