Michael Calabrese

The Wolverines obliterated teams in the early going this season, blasting Auburn by 30 and Gonzaga by 40 in back-to-back games in November. But Dusty May’s bunch has fallen back to earth, at least from an against-the-spread perspective. Michigan has failed to cover in six straight games, including an outright loss to Wisconsin on its home floor as 19-point favorites. Despite leading the nation in first-half scoring (46.5 ppg), the Wolverines have been uncharacteristically sluggish in the first 20 minutes in recent wins over Oregon and archrival Ohio State. A slow start against this Nebraska offense could prove fatal. The Cornhuskers have the scoring threats and the defense to run with anyone on a given night. Their defense has quietly reached an elite level under Fred Hoiberg in his seventh season on campus. “The Mayor” had yet to put a top-40 defense on the floor in Lincoln until this season. The Cornhuskers, now the 11th-ranked defense in America per KenPom, never send opponents to the line (13.6 FTA, 4th), and play a variation of the “packline” at times. Scoring inside the arc is treacherous for opponents, and Nebraska has excelled at cleaning the defensive glass (22nd). The drawback of that approach is the three-ball, which Nebraska gives up at volume. Opponents are firing up 29.5 triples per game (358th), and while that is by design, if they run into a hot team, the roof could cave in on a defense that has benefitted from opponents shooting just 30.5% from long range (45th). Luckily for Big Red, Michigan isn’t a team that lives and dies with the three-ball, nor do they shoot it extraordinarily well (35%, 119th). May prefers to run his offense through his bigs, hunting high-percentage shots inside of ten feet. The Wolverines lead the nation in two-point shooting percentage (64.3%), and their bigs are adept at drawing fouls in the paint. The Wolverines’ front line of Johnson Jr., Lendeborg, and Mara averages 12.1 foul shot attempts per game. Nebraska’s low foul rate (13.0 per game, 8th) and deep front-court rotation give them a chance to slow this prolific Michigan offense. Keep in mind, Nebraska has already dealt with the best of the Big Ten, and for that matter, the country, when it comes to offensive upside. The Corn’s 83-80 upset of Illinois was predicated on their ability to make life miserable on the Fighting Illini inside the arc. Illinois made just 18 two-point buckets in the game. They also clamped down on the Illinois’ transition game (four points) and limited Brad Underwood’s team to just seven points between the 10 and five minute mark of the second half. Michigan’s blueprint includes high-percentage post looks and fast break buckets (15.3 ppg, 35th), but Nebraska has proven time and again that its defense is built to stop both of those elements. If we get a Pryce Sandfort’s fifth straight 20-point outing, not only will Nebraska cover this number, but they’ll have a puncher’s chance late to pull off the upset and remain perfect on the season.

Hawks playing with increased confidence and Justice Ajogbor is playing at an A10 DPOY level