The College Football 26 video game dropped this week, and with media days already getting started, you can almost smell the crisp fall air. That’s how close we are to college football season.
If you’re looking for a quick football fix, sportsbooks have hung odds on every Week 1 matchup.
Let's dive into my college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Toledo vs. Kentucky and Old Dominion vs. Indiana.
Toledo vs Kentucky Pick
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +295 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -375 |
Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops was the toast of Big Blue Nation not that long ago. He won 10 games in 2021 and rose as high as seventh in the national polls in 2022 before the bottom fell out.
Since a 4-0 start in 2022, he’s 14-20 straight up.
The Wildcats offense was an unmitigated disaster last fall, finishing 119th in scoring (20.6 PPG) and 114th in total offense.
Looking over their roster, they’ve put all their eggs in the transfer portal basket. Six offensive starters portaled into the program, including former Texas A&M Aggies quarterback Zach Calzada.
The Rockets are the polar opposite of Kentucky in that they return 75% of their offensive production and an established starter under center.
Quarterback Tucker Gleason was great at times last year, including a 325-yard, three-touchdown performance on the road against Mississippi State. That 41-17 beatdown of an SEC opponent has me bullish on Toledo at this price point.
Rockets head coach Jason Candle has covered three straight games against Power 4 competition, nearly winning all three outright.
Sitting in the 3-1 neighborhood, I can’t resist pulling the trigger on an outright upset in the Bluegrass State.
Pick: Toledo ML +280
Old Dominion vs Indiana Pick
| Old Dominion Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+23.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +1300 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-23.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -2800 |
The Hoosiers just won double-digit games for the first time in program history. They crashed the College Football Playoff and finished 9-4 against the spread in Curt Cignetti’s first year in Bloomington.
Cignetti didn’t just cover at the sixth-highest clip in the sport; he ran it up on everyone.
Indiana covered by an average of 12.8 points per game, far and away the highest margin in the country. That margin is also the widest by a Power 4 conference team in the past four years.
But sportsbooks are savvy, and after a non-public team goes on a run like IU did in 2024, oddsmakers adapt. That’s why I’ve circled Indiana’s opener against Old Dominion.
Since making the jump to the FBS level in 2014, the Monarchs are 51-72 (.414) straight up and 55-66-2 (.455) against the spread. Last season, they finished .500 against the spread with an outright record of 5-7.
So, why the sudden optimism? They have stars leading them on both sides of the ball.
Jason Henderson returns from injury at middle linebacker, and he’s one of the best to ever play the position. He's 139 tackles away from becoming the all-time FBS leader in stops, and if healthy, that number has a chance to fall by November. He averaged 178 tackles in his last two injury-free seasons.
With Henderson instinctively flowing to the football, ODU has a chance to field a solid run defense this season.
When IU runs the ball well, it's very hard to stop. In the four games they failed to cover last season, the Hoosiers were held below 86 rushing yards on three occasions. Stop the Hoosiers’ run game, and you have a chance.
On the other side of the ball, the Monarchs turned the keys of their offense over to redshirt freshman Colton Joseph last fall, and he was an instant hit.
Joseph flashed big-time ability through the air and on the ground. He shredded Georgia Southern and Appalachian State through the air in back-to-back starts (636 yards) and broke the century mark on the ground on two occasions.
In just eight starts, he accounted for 22 touchdowns with 11 coming on the ground and 11 coming through the air.
Before Henderson was lost for the season, ODU battled with South Carolina in last season’s opener, falling by just four points as a three-touchdown underdog. I’ll gladly take north of three touchdowns here against Indiana.
Pick: Old Dominion +23.5
