The Rams are getting a lot of talk as the best team in the NFL, but I'm not ready to sell high on LA just yet - maybe after this one, since I'm not sure books are quite capturing Tampa Bay's true rating just yet. The Bucs rank 13th in DVOA on the season but have been trending in the wrong direction, particularly on offense where they rank just 19th in the last six weeks and fringe bottom 10 passing. The offense just hasn't been healthy. Bucky Irving and Mike Evans remain out, and the offensive line is banged up and has struggled. Tampa has gotten by with its defense, but this is a particularly bad matchup for Todd Bowles' defense. Tampa is so good against the run that it invites opponents to pass, and MVP favorite Matthew Stafford could shred this pass defense. The Rams call the most playaction in the league and the Bucs rank bottom five in EPA per play defending that. Tampa also looks like it'll be without CB Jamel Dean, a huge loss against Puka Nacua and Davante Adams since he's PFF's №1 rated corner on the season. The Rams continue to play a huge amount of 13 personnel, with one RB and three TEs, and that forces opponents to match heavier and put more linebackers on the field. That is a big matchup problem for the Bucs, who are especially weak at LB and defending the middle of the field. So far this season facing 2+ TE sets with four or fewer defensive backs on the field, Tampa Bay ranks dead last in the NFL at 9.0 yards per pass attempt - almost a first down every pass! The Bucs are also fringe bottom 10 in explosive pass plays allowed. Stafford might carve this defense up. Remember our Terrance Ferguson props last week? He didn't even see a target, but we might have been a game early. With Tyler Higbee now on IR, Ferguson should see an uptick in snaps and targets, so I'm running back his longest reception escalator too once it posts. This could be a breakout game for the rookie. The Bills were -5.5 against the Bucs last week, so does it makes sense that the Rams are -6.5, just a point more? LA's offense is better than Buffalo's and its defense is way better. I liked Buffalo last week but got spooked by what felt like a high line, and the Bills won comfortably by 12 points. The Rams are a better team and though the Bucs are feisty, I think LA ends up winning comfortably too. Don't be intimidated by the line. Grab Rams -6.5 (BetMGM) below the key number while it's available.

The Rams are getting a lot of talk as the best team in the NFL, but I'm not ready to sell high on LA just yet - maybe after this one, since I'm not sure books are quite capturing Tampa Bay's true rating just yet. The Bucs rank 13th in DVOA on the season but have been trending in the wrong direction, particularly on offense where they rank just 19th in the last six weeks and fringe bottom 10 passing. The offense just hasn't been healthy. Bucky Irving and Mike Evans remain out, and the offensive line is banged up and has struggled. Tampa has gotten by with its defense, but this is a particularly bad matchup for Todd Bowles' defense. Tampa is so good against the run that it invites opponents to pass, and MVP favorite Matthew Stafford could shred this pass defense. The Rams call the most playaction in the league and the Bucs rank bottom five in EPA per play defending that. Tampa also looks like it'll be without CB Jamel Dean, a huge loss against Puka Nacua and Davante Adams since he's PFF's №1 rated corner on the season. The Rams continue to play a huge amount of 13 personnel, with one RB and three TEs, and that forces opponents to match heavier and put more linebackers on the field. That is a big matchup problem for the Bucs, who are especially weak at LB and defending the middle of the field. So far this season facing 2+ TE sets with four or fewer defensive backs on the field, Tampa Bay ranks dead last in the NFL at 9.0 yards per pass attempt - almost a first down every pass! The Bucs are also fringe bottom 10 in explosive pass plays allowed. Stafford might carve this defense up. Remember our Terrance Ferguson props last week? He didn't even see a target, but we might have been a game early. With Tyler Higbee now on IR, Ferguson should see an uptick in snaps and targets, so I'm running back his longest reception escalator too once it posts. This could be a breakout game for the rookie. The Bills were -5.5 against the Bucs last week, so does it makes sense that the Rams are -6.5, just a point more? LA's offense is better than Buffalo's and its defense is way better. I liked Buffalo last week but got spooked by what felt like a high line, and the Bills won comfortably by 12 points. The Rams are a better team and though the Bucs are feisty, I think LA ends up winning comfortably too. Don't be intimidated by the line. Grab Rams -6.5 (BetMGM) below the key number while it's available.

The Rams are getting a lot of talk as the best team in the NFL, but I'm not ready to sell high on LA just yet - maybe after this one, since I'm not sure books are quite capturing Tampa Bay's true rating just yet. The Bucs rank 13th in DVOA on the season but have been trending in the wrong direction, particularly on offense where they rank just 19th in the last six weeks and fringe bottom 10 passing. The offense just hasn't been healthy. Bucky Irving and Mike Evans remain out, and the offensive line is banged up and has struggled. Tampa has gotten by with its defense, but this is a particularly bad matchup for Todd Bowles' defense. Tampa is so good against the run that it invites opponents to pass, and MVP favorite Matthew Stafford could shred this pass defense. The Rams call the most playaction in the league and the Bucs rank bottom five in EPA per play defending that. Tampa also looks like it'll be without CB Jamel Dean, a huge loss against Puka Nacua and Davante Adams since he's PFF's №1 rated corner on the season. The Rams continue to play a huge amount of 13 personnel, with one RB and three TEs, and that forces opponents to match heavier and put more linebackers on the field. That is a big matchup problem for the Bucs, who are especially weak at LB and defending the middle of the field. So far this season facing 2+ TE sets with four or fewer defensive backs on the field, Tampa Bay ranks dead last in the NFL at 9.0 yards per pass attempt - almost a first down every pass! The Bucs are also fringe bottom 10 in explosive pass plays allowed. Stafford might carve this defense up. Remember our Terrance Ferguson props last week? He didn't even see a target, but we might have been a game early. With Tyler Higbee now on IR, Ferguson should see an uptick in snaps and targets, so I'm running back his longest reception escalator too once it posts. This could be a breakout game for the rookie. The Bills were -5.5 against the Bucs last week, so does it makes sense that the Rams are -6.5, just a point more? LA's offense is better than Buffalo's and its defense is way better. I liked Buffalo last week but got spooked by what felt like a high line, and the Bills won comfortably by 12 points. The Rams are a better team and though the Bucs are feisty, I think LA ends up winning comfortably too. Don't be intimidated by the line. Grab Rams -6.5 (BetMGM) below the key number while it's available.