The NFL Final Four is set! We have a backup QB starting for the Broncos, a preseason longshot in the Patriots, and a rematch for the third time this season from the NFC West in the Rams and Seahawks.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's the Conference Championship round of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Monday, Jan. 19, at 2 p.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
Mile High Dog
58 Years Later
Broncos are 5.5-pt home underdogs in the Conference Championship game vs. Patriots. This is the largest home dog in a Conference Championship game since the 1970 merger & the largest since Browns vs. Colts back in 1968
If the line closes up to +4 for the Broncos, they would qualify for this stat: Home dogs of 4+ pts are 9-0 ATS over the last 50 years in the playoffs, including the Panthers, who covered against the Rams in the Wild Card round.
The Longshot
Futures in Effect
Patriots entered the season with 80-1 odds to win the Super Bowl, now they are the longshot of the Final Four. In the last 50 years, they are the 11th team to reach a CC game with preseason odds of 80-1 or higher. Of the previous ten teams, 7 lost in CC, 2 lost in SB and just the 1999 Rams went on to win it all at 150-1 odds in the preseason.
Extra Day
All Matters
Since the 2003-04 season, there has always been a rest advantage in Conference Championship week, with teams playing on Saturday and Sunday in the Divisional Round.
Teams with a rest advantage are 27-17 SU in the Conference Championship during that span. This year, those teams are the Broncos and Seahawks. Teams with a rest advantage are also 21-7 SU at home.
Maye Day
Chalk King
Drake Maye has New England playing well as a favorite. As a favorite of 3 pts or more, Maye is 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS, winning those ten games by 16.3 PPG.
The road has also been a friendly place for New England this season. They are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS on the road this year, the only undefeated road team SU in the NFL and the 2nd-best ATS team, behind just the Seahawks who are 8-1 ATS on the road.
ATS Woes
0-2 to Championship Game
A unique spot for the Rams in the playoffs. They are the only 0-2 ATS team in this postseason, closing -10 vs. Panthers (3-pt win) and -3.5 vs. Bears (3-pt win).
The Rams are the first team in the Super Bowl era to lose ATS in both the Wild Card round and the Divisional round, but advance to the Conference Championship.
Off Overtime
The Next Game Impact
Broncos and Rams are both off an overtime win in the Divisional Round last week. Since 2015, teams off of OT, facing a team that was not, are winning just 43.9% of games outright and 46.2% of games ATS. This season, those teams went 10-18 SU and 11-17 ATS.
Looking specifically at the playoffs. When a team if off an overtime win in the playoffs and is playing a playoff game in the next round, they are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS since 2015, losing by 15.4 PPG. Dating back to 2002, they are just 6-13 SU in their next playoff game.
Not only that, the Rams are also at a rest disadvantage vs. Seahawks, playing on Sunday vs. Saturday. Those teams on a rest disadvantage, off OT when their opponent is not in the playoffs, are 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS, losing 6 in a row outright – the one win was the Bears over the Saints in 2006-07.
Favorites Prevail
Winning Outright
Broncos, Seahawks, Patriots and Rams all won outright in the Divisional Round — and all four were favorites. Favorites went 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in the Divisional Round for just the 3rd time in the last 20 years.
Since 2003, underdogs in the Conference Championship are 20-24 ATS, the only round of the playoffs below .500 ATS in that span. In the Super Bowl era (since 1966), underdogs are 53-64-1 ATS in the Conference Championship.
Road Teacher
Perfect Record
Mike Vrabel has been good as a road favorite as a head coach, going 16-6 SU with both the Patriots and Titans.
Later in the season, it gets even better. In December or later, Vrabel is 8-0 SU as a road favorite, winning by 17.4 PPG.
New England has also started hot lately. In their last 16 games, New England is 15-0-1 on the 1st half moneyline, winning those 1st halves by 9.5 PPG.
Payton's Place
Home Cooking
Sean Payton is 12-10 straight up when listed as a home underdog in any game. He has profited a $100 bettor $744 for a 33.8% ROI. With the Broncos, Payton is 3-2 SU as a home underdog, including 2-0 SU this season, beating the Packers and Chiefs in that spot.
With a minimum 20 games coached since 2003 as a home underdog, here are the coaches above .500 SU:
Mike Tomlin: 21-16 SU (+$1,597)
Bruce Arians: 12-8 SU (+$936)
Mike Vrabel: 13-11 SU (+$918)
Sean Payton: 12-10 SU (+$744)
Road Trip Time
Plane To Plane
The Rams are playing their 3rd consecutive road game this week.
• Since division realignment in 2002, teams playing their 3rd consecutive road games in either regular season or playoffs are 48-79 SU (37.8%). When that team is listed as an underdog, they are 22-67 SU (24.7%).
• When that 3rd road game is in the playoffs, those teams are 12-30 SU (28.6%), including 9-28 SU (24.3%) as an underdog.
Staying Strong
Fighting Back
Teams leading at the half in the Conference Championship or Super Bowl are 18-34-3 against the second-half spread over the last 20 years.
When those teams or either on the road or a neutral site, they are 7-20-1 against the second-half spread in that span.
Every NFL Conference Championship Game
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➤Broncos are 4.5-pt home underdogs in the Conference Championship game vs. Patriots…
This is the largest home dog in a CC game since the 1970 merger & the largest since Browns vs. Colts back in 1968
Every AFC Championship since the 2011 season has featured either the New England Patriots or the Kansas City Chiefs.
➤Denver is the first home underdog in an AFC Conference Championship game since…
Denver was +2.5 vs New England in the 2015-16 Championship game (Demver won 20-18).
➤Patriots entered the season with 80-1 odds to win the Super Bowl, now they are the longshot of the Final Four, sitting here in the Conference Championship game. In the last 50 years, they are the 11th team to reach a CC game with preseason odds of 80-1 or higher.
Of the previous ten teams, 7 lost in CC, 2 lost in SB and just the 1999 Rams went on to win it all at 150-1 odds in the preseason.
➤The over/under in the AFC Championship is listed between 40.5 and 41 – that would be the lowest O/U in a Conference Championship or Super Bowl since 2017-18 between the Eagles and Vikings, which closed at 39.
This would be the lowest AFC Championship O/U since the Steelers/Jets closed at 38 back in 2010-11 between Mark Sanchez and Ben Roethlisberger.
In CC games or the Super Bowl, when the total closes at 41 or less, the over is 8-2-2 dating back to 2003, going over the total by 5.4 PPG – that includes a 5-0 mark to the over in the AFC Championship in that span with a total of 41 or less.
➤When the Denver Broncos make the Conference Championship game, they are usually penciled into the Super Bowl.
In the Super Bowl era, this is their 11th appearance in the Conference Championship and they are 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in those games.
At home in Denver, they are 6-1 SU/ATS in the Conference Championship, with their only loss coming to Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers in 2005-06.
➤If the line closes up to +4 for the Broncos, they would qualify for this stat:
Home dogs of 4+ pts are 9-0 ATS over the last 50 years in the playoffs, including the Panthers who covered against the Rams in the Wild Card round.
If you look at home teams as dogs of more than 3 pts (+3.5 or more), they are 13-8 ATS in the last 50 years.
➤Drake Maye has New England playing well as a favorite. As a favorite of 3 pts or more, Maye is 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS, winning those ten games by 16.3 PPG.
As a favorite overall for Maye, the Patriots are 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS in those games.
What the Patriots have accomplished from an expectations standpoint is impressive. They are 16-3 SU and 14-5 ATS and entering the season they were the first team since division realignment in 2002 to see their win total jump 4+ games year-to-year from BOTH their previous win total AND previous games won.
➤In franchise history, the Patriots are 8-12 SU and 10-10 ATS on the road in the playoffs. They are 8-8 SU and 10-6 ATS on the road vs. all opponents not named the Denver Broncos and 0-4 SU and ATS in Denver in the playoffs.
➤The road has been a friendly place for New England this season. They are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS on the road this year, the only undefeated road team SU in the NFL and the 2nd-best ATS team, behind just the Seahawks who are 8-1 ATS on the road.
In his career, Drake Maye is 10-3 ATS on the road, the 2nd-best mark in the league over the last two seasons behind just Sam Darnold at 12-4-1 ATS on the road.
Since 2002, Patriots will be the 3rd team to win 8 straight road games outright and play on the road in the playoffs:
2014-15 Cowboys lost 26-21 in Packers
2007-08 Giants won 23-20 in Packers
➤It’s never an easy task to win a playoff game on the road in Denver. In the Super Bowl era, Dener is 18-5 SU at home in Denver in the playoffs.
When Denver wins a playoff game at home and they get another playoff game at home that same season, they are 6-1 SU/ATS – their only loss? That same 2005-06 season to Pittsburgh.
➤Mike Vrabel is looking to win the Super Bowl in his first season as coach of the Patriots. Of the 32 different head coaches to win a Super Bowl hired after 1966, only four have done it in their first season.
Don McCafferty — Baltimore Colts, 1970 season (Super Bowl V)
Took over a veteran roster and won the franchise’s only Super Bowl.
George Seifert — San Francisco 49ers, 1989 season (Super Bowl XXIV)
Replaced Bill Walsh and led the 49ers to a dominant title run in his first year.
Brian Billick — Baltimore Ravens, 2000 season (Super Bowl XXXV)
Built around an all-time great defense in his first year as head coach.
Gary Kubiak — Denver Broncos, 2015 season (Super Bowl 50)
Won immediately after being hired, behind an elite defense and Peyton Manning’s final season.
➤Mike Vrabel has been good as a road favorite as a head coach, going 16-6 SU with both the Patriots and Titans.
Later in the season, it gets even better. In December or later, Vrabel is 8-0 SU as a road favorite, winning by 17.4 PPG.
➤The Broncos and Rams are both off an overtime win in the Divisional Round last week.
Since 2015, teams off of OT, facing a team who was not, are winning just 43.9% of games outright and 46.2% of games ATS. This season, those teams went 10-18 SU and 11-17 ATS.
Looking specifically at the playoffs. When a team if off an overtime win in the playoffs and is playing a playoff game in the next round, they are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS since 2015, losing by 15.4 PPG. Dating back to 2002, they are just 6-13 SU in their next playoff game.
➤Broncos are home underdogs in the Conference Championship game.
Since the 1980 season, we’ve had 13 home underdogs in the Conference Championship round, those teams went 7-6 SU/ATS.
➤Sean Payton has coached 22 games in his NFL career where his team was listed as a home underdog. Payton is 12-10 SU and 13-9 ATS in those games, which is very impressive.
Payton’s 12-10 SU mark has profited a $100 bettor $744 for a 33.8% ROI. With the Broncos, Payton is 3-2 SU as a home underdog, including 2-0 SU this season, beating the Packers and Chiefs in that spot.
With a minimum 20 games coached since 2003 as a home underdog, here are the coaches above .500 SU:
Mike Tomlin: 21-16 SU (+$1,597)
Bruce Arians: 12-8 SU (+$936)
Mike Vrabel: 13-11 SU (+$918)
Sean Payton: 12-10 SU (+$744)
➤Drake Maye became the 26th QB to win their first playoff start since 2002 – and he is now the 8th to also win a 2nd playoff game that same season. Of the previous seven QBs in that spot, they are 0-7 SU/ATS in that 3rd playoff game – some coming in the Conference Championship and some in the Super Bowl.
➤The Broncos have lost Bo Nix for the rest of the season due to a broken bone in his ankle, which leads to Jarrett Stidham starting the AFC title game for Denver.
Since 2015, this will be the 22nd time a Sean Payton-coached team will go to a backup QB in any game. He’s had Taysom Hill, Ian Book, Trevor Siemian, Teddy Bridgewater and Luke McCown come in for him in that span.
Payton has had success in those games going 12-9 SU and 14-7 ATS with a backup QB. When Payton is an underdog with a backup QB, they are 5-6 SU and 7-4 ATS.
➤Patriots have started fast lately. In their last 16 games, New England is 15-0-1 on the 1st half moneyline, winning those 1st halves by 9.5 PPG.
In his career as a starter, Drake Maye is 21-9-1 on 1H moneyline and 18-13 1H ATS. New England is 14-5 against the 1st half spread this season, best mark in the NFL.
➤Broncos were the only team in the NFL whose backup QB did not attempt a pass this season and they haven’t had a backup QB attempt a pass since 2023.
From Opta Stats: Jarrett Stidham would be the first NFL QB to start in the conference championship round or later after not throwing a single pass during the regular season (since QB starts were first tracked in 1950).
➤Stidham will be 7th QB since 1950 to make his first start of a season in the playoffs. Only one came away with the outright win:
2020 Taylor Heinicke (WAS) – Lost, Won ATS
2016 Connor Cook (OAK) – Lost SU/ATS
2012 Joe Webb (MIN) – Lost SU/ATS
1992 Frank Reich (BUF) – Won SU/ATS
1983 Gary Danielson (DET) – Lost, Won ATS
1972 Roger Staubach (DAL) – Lost SU/ATS
➤In the playoffs, we’ve seen plenty of games where a backup QB has started – a QB who came in at some point in the season for an injured QB who would have started the game. Since 2013, we’ve seen 21 such instances, those teams went 8-13 SU and 11-9-1 ATS. In 14 of those 21 games, the team was listed as an underdog and went 5-9 SU and 8-4-1 ATS.
➤Patriots hold a distinct advantage over the Broncos in terms of covering the spread this season.
Patriots: 14-5 ATS (74%)
Broncos: 8-10 ATS (44%)
Teams with a 70%+ ATS win pct entering a Conference Championship or Super Bowl are just 5-10 ATS since 2005-06 and 2-6 ATS in the CC game since 2008-09.
➤Another way to look at the massive difference in ATS win pct between the Patriots and Broncos:
In the Conference Championship and Super Bowl dating back to 2003, we’ve seen 11 teams that had a 20%+ edge in ATS win pct entering the matchup – those teams went 2-9 ATS, failing to cover the spread by over 4 PPG.
➤The Josh Allen effect. Since he entered the league in 2018, teams to play a playoff game after facing the Bills are 1-6 SU/ATS and after a playoff game they are 1-5 SU/ATS, with the only win and cover coming from the Chiefs on the road against the Ravens in the AFC Championship game in 2023-24.
➤In the playoffs, Sean Payton is 10-9 SU, but just 8-11 ATS as a head coach. At home in the playoffs, Payton’s teams are 8-3 SU. He started his career 6-0 SU at home in the playoffs and has gone 2-3 SU since.
When Payton coaches a playoff game on extended prep time/rest, his teams are 5-0 SU (3-2 ATS). His 5-0 SU mark is the best for any head coach since 2003 in the playoffs.
➤In the limited snaps Jarrett Stidhan has received at QB, it has mostly come between 2020-23 where had 249 plays at QB.
Here are some of his advanced ranks in that span for the 91 QBs with at least 100 plays and the QB comparison around him:
EPA + CPOE composite: T-61st (Drew Lock, Cam Newton)
Adj. EPA/play: T-56th (Justin Fields)
Success Rate: T-45th (Mac Jones)
aDOT: T-18th, 8.4 (Jordan Love, Derek Carr)
CPOE: 66th (Davis Mills, Tommy DeVito)
(CPOE = completion pct over expected | aDOT = average depth of target)
➤Stidham will become the 9th QB to make his first start of the season in the playoffs – the previous 8 QBs combined to go 1-7 SU in those games (via NFL).
The only win came from Frank Reich vs. Bills in 1992.
The last QB to make his first start of the season in the conference championship game (or later) was Roger Staubach in 1972, a game the Cowboys lost 26-3, per ESPN Research
➤The Broncos scored 21 pts or less in nine total games this season and in the end, they entered the playoffs going 14-3 SU – a very unique combination. Denver is only the 5th team in the Super Bowl era to have 9+ games scoring 21 or less and win 13+ games outright during the regular season:
2025 Broncos – In CC game
2001 Steelers – Lost in CC
1986 Giants – Won SB
1986 Bears – Lost in DIV
1981 49ers – Won SB
➤The Patriots defense has been stellar in the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds, allowing 16 pts or less in both games.
In the last 15 years, we’ve seen six teams allow 16 or less in b2b playoff games entering a Conference Championship – those teams went 0-6 SU/ATS in the CC, losing by 16.2 PPG. Only 1 of those 6 teams were favored though, the 2008-09 Eagles, who lost in Arizona.
➤Lately, the Texans defense has taken it out of teams. Since December 1, five teams have played a game directly after facing Houston, all without a bye in between – those teams went 0-5 SU/ATS, failing to cover the spread by 10.8 PPG. Since Dec. 1, Texans as a prior opponent are the only winless team in the NFL ATS.
➤Patriots knocked off the Texans last week, who had a 10-game SU win streak entering their playoff matchup.
Since division realignment in 2002, Patriots are the 9th team to beat a team in the playoffs who had a 10+ game SU win streak – those teams are just 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS in their next playoff game.
➤The Patriots have been great off of wins this season, going 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS, the 2nd-best ATS mark in the NFL behind just the Seahawks. New England is covering the spread by 6.2 PPG off of wins this year. They were 3-12 SU and 5-8-2 ATS off of wins in the previous three seasons before this year.
Referee Trends and Stats: TBD
TBD
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➤The Rams and Seahawks games this season have been as tight as tight comes, with not only both teams winning one game each, but the points and yards are nearly identical.
Points Scored
Rams: 58
Seahawks: 57
Total Yards
Rams: 830
Seahawks: 829
➤The Seahawks are back in the Conference Championship game for the 5th time in franchise history and 4th time at home in Seattle with a chance to go to the Super Bowl.
Seattle is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in those four CC games, but at home in Seattle they are 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS).
Seattle’s lone loss in the CC game came back in 1984 against the Raiders, then from Los Angeles. When Seattle has been listed as a favorite in the CC game, they are 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS).
➤Sean McVay has dominated the Seahawks. He is 13-6 ATS vs. Seattle as coach of the Rams, including 12-3 ATS since 2019, covering the spread by over 4.2 PPG.
With Stafford at QB, the Rams are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS vs. Seattle, with his only SU loss coming in their last game back in Week 16 by just 1 point.
McVay is 35-21-1 ATS vs. the NFC West in his coaching career – McVay is just 8-11 ATS vs. 49ers, but he is a combined 27-10-1 ATS vs. the Cardinals and Seahawks.
His 35-21-1 ATS mark vs. his own division, profiting a $100 bettor $1,166, the highest mark of 96 head coaches since he came to the Rams in 2017 and the 3rd-best mark for any coach last 20 years behind just Mike McCarthy and Mike Tomlin.
➤Seahawks have won 11 straight home playoff games outright — with fans in the stands, the 12th Man — Seattle lost its Wild Card game at home vs. Rams in 2020 with no fans because of COVID.
At home in the playoffs, the Seahawks are 13-3 SU and 10-6 ATS all-time. When Seattle is at home in the Divisional or Conference Championship, they are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS.
➤The Broncos and Rams are both off an overtime win in the Divisional Round last week.
Since 2015, teams off of OT, facing a team who was not, are winning just 43.9% of games outright and 46.2% of games ATS. This season, those teams went 10-18 SU and 11-17 ATS.
Looking specifically at the playoffs. When a team if off an overtime win in the playoffs and is playing a playoff game in the next round, they are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS since 2015, losing by 15.4 PPG. Dating back to 2002, they are just 6-13 SU in their next playoff game.
Not only that, the Rams are also at a rest disadvantage vs. Seahawks, playing on Sunday vs. Saturday. Those teams on a rest disadvantage, off OT when their opponent is not in the playoffs, are 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS, losing 6 in a row outright – the one win was the Bears over the Saints in 2006-07.
➤The Rams are playing their 3rd consecutive road game this week.
• Since division realignment in 2002, teams playing their 3rd consecutive road games in either regular season or playoffs are 48-79 SU (37.8%). When that team is listed as an underdog, they are 22-67 SU (24.7%).
• When that 3rd road game is in the playoffs, those teams are 12-30 SU (28.6%), including 9-28 SU (24.3%) as an underdog.
➤It not only took overtime, but an emotional win against a Bears team that always comes back in the second half and did so in this game as well.
This season, teams after facing the Bears are 2-13-1 SU in their next game, having lost 9 consecutive games outright entering this week. The 2 wins after facing Chicago is the fewest after facing any team in the NFL this year.
Maybe it's a Ben Johnson thing. Last two seasons, teams after facing Bears this year and Lions last year are a combined 8-25-1 SU in their next game.
➤The Seahawks have a slight rest advantage over the Rams in this game – playing on Saturday last week vs. Sunday.
Mike Macdonald is 7-2 SU with the Seahawks on extended prep time, winning those games by 10.7 PPG, including 3-0 SU vs. NFC West teams, winning by 14.3 PPG.
➤A unique spot for the Rams in the playoffs. They are the only 0-2 ATS team in this year’s postseason, closing -10 vs. Panthers (3-pt win) and -3.5 vs. Bears (3-pt win).
This is the Rams first 2-game ATS losing streak since Weeks 4, 5 and 7 back last season.
Teams on a 2+ game ATS losing streak entering a Conference Championship or Super Bowl are 4-9 ATS over the last 20 years.
The Rams are the first team in the Super Bowl era to lose ATS in both the Wild Card round and the Divisional round, but advance to the Conference Championship.
➤Mike Macdonald has coached ten total night games while with the Seahawks. He started 0-3 SU in those games, and since have won 7 straight at night.
He was 1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS with Geno Smith
He is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS with Sam Darnold
Darnold is 6-0 SU in night games with Mike Macdonald and 4-7 SU with all other head coaches in the NFL.
➤Sean McVay has faced the Seahawks at night in primetime five times as coach of the Rams – He is 5-0 ATS in those games, covering the spread by 5.1 PPG.
➤Seahawks destroyed the 49ers last week, winning 41-6, beating San Francisco by 35 pts.
Since 2000 season, Seattle is the 4th team to win a Divisional Round game by 30+ pts and then play in the CC game at home, those teams are 3-0 SU:
2022-23 Eagles, 31-7 vs. 49ers
2011-12 Patriots, 23-20 vs. Ravens
2009-10 Saints, 31-28 vs. Vikings
Since division realignment in 2002, teams to win any playoff game by 20+ pts and play at home in their next game are 10-2 SU, winning by 6 PPG.
➤Seahawks have now won 8 consecutive games outright entering the Conference Championship game.
Teams on a 8+ game SU win streak entering a Conference Championship are just 3-9 ATS dating back to division realignment in 2002. Even teams on a 7+ game win streak are just 4-12 ATS entering the CC game in that span.
➤Seahawks secured their 13th ATS cover of the season last week against the 49ers, which is tied for their most in a single season in franchise history.
Most ATS Wins, Single Season Seahawks History
2025, 13-5 ATS, 1-0 ATS in playoffs, in CC game
2013, 13-6 ATS, 2-1 ATS in playoffs, won SB
2012, 13-5 ATS, 2-0 ATS in playoffs, lost in DIV
➤The Sam Darnold turnaround has been remarkable.
• He is 29-7 SU over the last two seasons, most SU wins for any QB in the NFL — His 24-11-1 ATS mark is also best.
• In his first 6 seasons, he went 21-35 SU & 22-33-1 ATS.
➤The Seahawks get the Rams this week and this season, Seattle is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS vs. teams above .500. Their two SU losses are by 5 combined pts – by 2 pts to the Rams and by 3 pts to the Buccaneers.
Over the last two seasons, Sam Darnold is 14-5 SU vs. teams above .500. In his first 6 seasons, he went 8-15 SU vs. teams above .500. Darnold is tied with Jalen Hurts for most SU wins vs. teams above .500.
➤The bounce back has been good for Mike Macdonald and the Seahawks.
Under Macdonald, Seattle has played four games directly after facing the 49ers, Seattle is not only 4-0 SU/ATS, but they are covering the spread in those games by an astounding 19.9 PPG. After facing an NFC West opponent, Seattle is 8-3 ATS under Macdonald.
➤Seahawks defense has been very stingy, but in the 2nd half it has been next level.
• Seattle has allowed just 7 total pts in their last three second halves against the 49ers twice and the Panthers.
• In his last three playoff games as a DC/HC, Mike Macdonald's teams have allowed a combined 0 points in the second half.
➤The Seahawks rush defense has gone 27 consecutive games without allowing a 100-yard rusher – with James Cook the last runner to go for 100 against Seattle back in Week 8 of last season.
Last week Purdy, McCaffrey and Jordan James all got 5+ carries, none eclipsed 40+ yds.
➤Matthew Stafford has started 12 playoff games in his career; he is 7-5 SU and 6-6 ATS.
In those 12 games, he’s only been a favorite five times, with his teams 5-0 SU and 1-4 ATS in those games. Stafford’s 5-0 SU mark as a favorite in the playoffs is the most wins without a loss for any QB since 2000.
As an underdog in the playoffs, Stafford is 2-5 SU and 5-2 ATS, including 5-0 ATS as an underdog of 7 pts or less.
In true playoff road games, Stafford is 3-5 SU. At a neutral site or at home, Stafford is 4-0 SU as a starting QB, all with the Rams. With Sean McVay as his coach, Stafford is 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS in the playoffs.
➤This is the fourth time the Seahawks will have the No. 1 seed in the NFC – the previous three times they went to the Super Bowl. Overall as the No. 1 seed, Seahawks are 6-4 ATS, since 2003 all other teams are 37-52-1 ATS as the top seed.
The No. 1 seed in the NFC has had a tough go of it lately. Since 2018-19, they are just 6-10 ATS in the playoffs – An NFC No. 1 seed has not won the Super Bowl since the 2017 Eagles and the 2013, Seahawks dating back to 2010.
➤The downside of Stafford’s career has been in the second half with a lead.
When his teams lead at the half, he is 39-72-2 (35%) against the 2nd half spread, including 13-29-1 2H ATS in this spot with the Rams.
In the playoffs, Stafford is 1-6 2H ATS after leading at the half, the worst mark of any QB since 2005.
➤Seahawks faced the 49ers last week and now face the Rams this week.
Seattle will attempt to be the 4th team since the 1970 merger to defeat two division foes outright in the same postseason:
2021 Rams vs Cardinals/49ers (won Super Bowl)
1985 Patriots vs Jets/Dolphins (lost Super Bowl)
1982 Dolphins vs Pats/Jets (lost Super Bowl)
Referee Trends and Stats: TBD
TBD
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NFL Betting Systems
System: We have a divisional game in the Conference Championship. History says to lean to the under.
Matches: SEA/LAR
System: When two good teams play late in the season from a point differential standpoint, it has been profitable to fade the favorite. It would say to bet the Rams.
Matches: LAR
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System: The Rams offense is averaging 30.1 PPG this season. It has been smart to fade high-powered offenses late in the season ATS. This year that is 6-2 ATS so far.
Matches: SEA
System: Fade the public here. Small underdogs with the public on the other side of the game ATS.
Matches: DEN
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System: This is a bet on the Broncos. Good teams as a favorite who have been good defensively lately are a fade candidate.
Matches: DEN
System: Seahawks are on the longest winning streak for any team still left in the playoffs … not the best omen.
Matches: LAR
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