2018 Midterm Election Closing Odds: Key Senate Races in Florida, Texas on the Move

Nov 06, 2018 2:50 PM EST
  • It's Midterm Election Day in America!
  • Betting markets expect Democrats to win the House (81.5% chance, -440 odds)
  • Republicans are expected to retain control of the Senate (89.5% chance, -850 odds)

Happy Midterm Election Day!

For months, we’ve been tracking the Midterm Election betting odds in an attempt to determine which party will win the House and Senate, along with several key state Senate and Governor’s races.

Today, we find out who wins.

Here are the updated odds across the betting market (2 p.m. ET). These odds should be coming off the board shortly.

2018 US House of Representatives Election- Majority Outcome

  • Democratic Majority: 80% chance (-400 odds)
  • Republican Majority: 28.6% chance (+250 odds)

via Bovada

Odds to win House Control 2018

  • Democrats: 81.5% chance (-440 odds)
  • Republicans: 23.8% chance (+320 odds)

via BookMaker

Since this morning, the odds have moved farther toward Democrats to win the House. At Bookmaker, Democrats moved from -251 to -445 (71.5% to 81.5%). At Bovada, they moved from -300 to -400 (75% to 80%).

2018 U.S. Senate Election: Majority Outcome

  • Republican Majority: 80% chance (-400 odds)
  • Democratic Majority: 14.3% chance (+600 odds)
  • No Majority: 15.4% chance (+550 odds)

via Bovada

Odds to win Senate Control 2018

  • Republicans: 89.5% chance (-850 odds)
  • Democrats: 15.4% chance (+550 odds)

via BookMaker

Since this morning, Republicans have dipped slightly from -1100 to -850 (91.7% to 89.5%). At Bovada, Republicans fell from -550 to -400 (84.6% to 80%).

Here are the latest odds at BookMaker for several key Senate and Governor’s races (2 p.m. ET).

Arizona Senate Race Odds

  • Martha McSally (R): 50% chance (+100 odds)
  • Krysten Sinema (D): 54.5% (-120 odds)

Last 24 hours: Sinema +129 to -120

Florida Senate Race Odds

  • Bill Nelson (D): 71.3% chance (-248 odds)
  • Rick Scott (R): 33.4% (+199 odds)

Last 24 hours: Nelson -130 to -248

Indiana Senate Race Odds

  • Joe Donnelly (D): 66.6% chance (-199 odds)
  • Mike Braun (R): 38.6% (+159 odds)

Last 24 hours: Donnelly -135 to -199

Missouri Senate Race Odds

  • Josh Hawley (R): 58.7% chance (-142 odds)
  • Claire McCaskill (D): 46.3% (+116 odds)

Last 24 hours: No movement

Montana Senate Race Odds

  • Jon Tester (D): 70.1% chance (-235 odds)
  • Matt RosenDale (R): 34.5% (+190 odds)

Nebraska Senate Race Odds

  • Deb Fischer (R): 98.0% chance (-5000 odds)
  • Jane Raybould (D): 6.7% (+1400 odds)

Nevada Senate Race Odds

  • Jacky Rosen (D): 66.7% chance (-200 odds)
  • Dean Heller (R): 38.5% (+160 odds)

Last 24 hours: Rosen -145 to -200

New Jersey Senate Race Odds

  • Robert Menendez (D): 90.5% chance (-950 odds)
  • Bob Hugin (R): 14.3% (+600 odds)

Last 24 hours: Menendez -550 to -950

North Dakota Senate Race Odds

  • Kevin Cramer (R): 87.9% chance (-724 odds)
  • Heidi Heitkamp (D): 17.2% (+482 odds)

Tennessee Senate Race Odds

  • Marsha Blackburn (R): 87.5% chance (-700 odds)
  • Phil Bredesen (D): 17.1% (+485 odds)

Last 24 hours: Blackburn -550 to 700

Texas Senate Race Odds

  • Ted Cruz (R): 88.2% chance (-750 odds)
  • Beto O’Rourke (D): 16.5% (+505 odds)

Last 24 hours: Cruz -542 to -750

West Virginia Senate Race Odds

  • Joe Manchin III (D): 85% chance (-565 odds)
  • Patrick Morrisey (R): 19.9% (+403 odds)

Last 24 hours: Manchin III -404 to -565

Wisconsin Senate Race Odds

  • Tammy Baldwin (D): 96.8% chance (-3000 odds)
  • Leah Vukmir (R): 7.1% (+1300 odds)

Last 24 hours: Baldwin -2000 to -3000

Florida Govenor’s Race Odds

  • Andrew Gillum (D): 81.1% chance (-430 odds)
  • Ron DeSantis (R): 23.5% (+325 odds)

Last 24 hours: Gillum -252 to -430

Georgia Govenor’s Race Odds

  • Stacey Abrams (D): 33.1% chance (+202 odds)
  • Brian Kemp (R): 71.5% (-252 odds)

Ohio Govenor’s Race Odds

  • Richard Cordray (D): 70% chance (-233 odds)
  • Mike DeWine (R): 35% (+186 odds)
Credit:

Jarrad Henderson-USA TODAY. Pictured: Ted Cruz

Follow Josh Appelbaum on Twitter
@Josh_Insights

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