A blue wave coming in 2026? That's what the market is saying less than a year from next year's midterm elections.
Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are both expecting Democrats to control the House of Representatives after the 2026 mid-term elections in November. Right now, Republicans control the house with 220 seats, Democrats have 213, and two are vacant.
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Which Party Will Control House in 2026?
Odds via Kalshi and update every hour automatically. The content in this article may not always reflect the live market prices.
2026 House Control Market Updates
The 2026 midterm elections present a challenging landscape for Republicans defending their narrow House majority. Historically, the president's party loses an average of 26-28 seats in midterm elections, and with Republicans currently holding just a slim margin of seven seats, even modest losses could flip control to Democrats. Republicans have controlled the house since 2023, and controlled the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives since Donald Trump won the presidential election in 2024.
Donald Trump's approval rating heading into 2026 will be critical. Midterms typically function as referendums on the sitting president. Economic conditions, particularly inflation, wage growth, and employment, will heavily influence voter sentiment in swing districts.
Republicans face structural vulnerabilities. Many of their 2024 gains came in Biden-won districts, particularly in New York and California, where Democratic candidates underperformed. These seats are natural pickup opportunities for Democrats with stronger candidates and better turnout in a midterm environment. Democrats also benefit from redistricting in some states, though Republicans control the process in others.
However, Republicans have advantages too. They've demonstrated strength with working-class voters across racial lines, and their coalition has proven resilient. If the economy performs well and Trump maintains solid approval among independents, historical patterns could be muted.
The Senate map in 2026 is brutal for Republicans. They're defending seats in blue and purple states won during their 2020 wave, which could help Democrats with coordinated campaigns and voter mobilization that boosts House candidates.
December 15
This market has mostly hovered around Democrats at ~70% until October, when it came down to the 60% range. But over performance by Democrats in the 2025 elections helped cool any Republican momentum, pushing it back to toward the Democrats at around 75% in late 2025.
The big jump back. toward Democrats came around the 2025 elections in November, when Democrats outperformed expectations
Elections like Tennessee's 7th Congressional District, which voted in favor of Trump by 22 points in the 2024 presidential election but only voted in favor of Republican Matt Van Epps by about 9%, point to a changing tide.
