Prediction markets are pricing in a near-certainty that the Justice Department will follow through on its promised release of Jeffrey Epstein documents on Friday, with contracts trading at 90% for a Friday release and 96% by year's end at Polymarket, and 84.3% on Kalshi by Friday. Read our beginner's guide to Kalshi here if you're interested in trading it yourself.
The high confidence appears justified based on statements from Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche, who told Fox News the DOJ plans to release "several hundred thousand documents today" related to the notorious pedophile's case, with additional materials expected over the coming weeks.
Not all the files need to be released for "yes" to settle as a winner. Just "any files." From Polymarket: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases any files pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein, which weren’t previously public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Epstein files being released "Before 2026" traded between 25-50% for most of early 2025, then dipped below 25% in June, then again below 10% in October. But a federal judge approved the grand jury records released in October, causing the price to jump from below 10% to north of 75% over a few days.
"We're going to release several hundred thousand documents today, and those documents will come in all different forms, photographs, and other materials associated with all of the investigations," Blanche said.
The 10% discount from certainty likely reflects standard execution risk — the possibility of last-minute legal challenges, technical delays, or unforeseen complications in the redaction process the DOJ described. Blanche emphasized that officials are reviewing every document to protect victim identities before release.
Friday marks the 30-day deadline set by a bipartisan law President Trump signed requiring the DOJ to turn over all unclassified Epstein-related records. Federal judges have already unsealed grand jury transcripts from investigations into both Epstein and his accomplice Ghislaine Maxwell, suggesting the legal groundwork is in place.
The modest gap between Friday's 90% and year-end's 96% odds suggests markets see virtually no scenario where the release is blocked entirely—only questions of timing. Blanche indicated additional batches totaling "several hundred thousand more" pages will follow in the coming weeks.
As for whether the files lead to new charges, that market remains more uncertain. Blanche left the door open, noting investigations continue, though "as of today, there's no new charges coming."
