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2020 Senate Election Odds: Democrats Favored to Regain Control Over Republicans

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Photo credit: Olivier DOULIERY / AFP) (Photo by OLIVIER DOULIERY/AFP via Getty Images

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2020 Senate Odds

Party
Odds
Percent Chance
Democrat Majority (51+ seats)
+100
44.9%
Republican Majority (51+ seats)
+275
24.0%
No Majority (50/50)
+188
31.1%

Odds updated as of Nov. 3 and via European sportsbook Betfair. If you’re new to betting, Republican’s +275 odds mean a $100 bet would net $275 if they held 51 seats after the election. Convert odds using our Betting Odds Calculator. Note that the implied probabilities above do not include the tax the book charges.


As of Election Day, Nov. 3, the tightest national contest doesn’t seem to be the presidential one — rather, which party will gain power in the Senate.

The European betting market gives Democrats the best chance at holding 51-plus seats at the end of the election, although that’s still below a 50% chance. Republicans have a 24.0% chance of holding 51-plus seats, while no majority in the Senate is at 31.1%.

If there’s a 50/50 split, control of the Senate comes down to which party holds the presidency, as the Vice President is President of the Senate.

Politics site FiveThirtyEight is largely in line with the betting market, giving Democrats a 75% chance to control the Senate — they’re measuring that by the combination of controlling 51-plus or controlling 50 and winning the presidential election. Contrastingly, they give Republicans a 25% chance to do the same.

European sportsbook Betfair also lists odds for individual races, with some high-profile races expected to be incredibly close. In North Carolina, for example, they list Democrat Cal Cunningham at -200 odds (63.7% non-juiced probability) to defeat incumbent Republican Thom Tillis (+163 odds).

See all of the races below.

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State Senate Races

Alabama

  • Tommy Tuberville (Republican): -714 odds, 81.4% implied probability
  • Doug Jones (Democrat): +400 odds, 18.6% implied probability

Alaska

  • Dan Sullivan (Republican): -345 odds, 71.6% implied probability
  • Al Gross (Independent): +225 odds, 28.4% implied probability

Arizona

  • Mark Kelly (Democrat): -455 odds, 75.4% implied probability
  • Martha McSally (Republican): +275 odds, 24.6% implied probability

Arkansas

  • Tom Cotton (Republican): -10000 odds, 86.2% implied probability
  • Ricky Harrington Jr. (Libertarian): +1000 odds, 7.9% implied probability
  • Dan Whitfield (Independent): +1400 odds, 5.8% implied probability

Colorado

  • John Hickenlooper (Democrat): -588 odds, 81.0% implied probability
  • Cory Gardner (Republican): +400 odds, 19.0% implied probability

Delaware

  • Chris Coons (Democrat): -10000 odds, 92.3% implied probability
  • Lauren Witzke (Republican): +1100 odds, 7.7% implied probability

Georgia Regular

  • David Perdue (Republican): -137 odds, 54.8% implied probability
  • Jon Ossoff (Democrat): +110 odds, 45.2% implied probability

Idaho

  • Jim Risch (Republican): -10000 odds, 91.6% implied probability
  • Paulette Jordan (Democrat): +1000 odds, 8.4% implied probability

Illinois

  • Dick Durbin (Democrat): -10000 odds, 91.6% implied probability
  • Mark Curran (Republican): +1000 odds, 8.4% implied probability

Iowa

  • Joni Ernst (Republican): -175 odds, 58.9% implied probability
  • Theresa Greenfield (Democrat): +125 odds, 41.1% implied probability

Kansas

  • Roger Marshall (Republican): -345 odds, 71.6% implied probability
  • Barbara Bollier (Democrat): +225 odds, 28.4% implied probability

Kentucky

  • Mitch McConnell (Republican): -1667 odds, 88.9% implied probability
  • Amy McGrath (Democrat): +750 odds, 11.1% implied probability

Maine

  • Sara Gideon (Democrat): -227 odds, 64.6% implied probability
  • Susan Collins (Republican): +163 odds, 35.4% implied probability

Massachusetts

  • Ed Markey (Democrat): -10000 odds, 91.6% implied probability
  • Kevin O’Connor (Republican): +1000 odds, 8.4% implied probability

Michigan

  • Gary Peters (Democrat): -345 odds, 71.6% implied probability
  • John James (Republican): +225 odds, 28.4% implied probability

Minnesota

  • Tina Smith (Democrat): -1000 odds, 87.2% implied probability
  • Jason Lewis (Republican): +650 odds, 12.8% implied probability

Mississippi

  • Cindy Hyde-Smith (Republican): -5000 odds, 90.3% implied probability
  • Mike Espy (Democrat): +850 odds, 9.7% implied probability

Montana

  • Steve Daines (Republican): -200 odds, 63.7% implied probability
  • Steve Bullock (Democrat): +163 odds, 36.3% implied probability

Nebraska

  • Ben Sasse (Republican): -10000 odds, 91.6% implied probability
  • Chris Janicek (Democrat): +1000 odds, 8.4% implied probability

New Hampshire

  • Jeanne Shaheen (Democrat): -5000 odds, 91.5% implied probability
  • Corky Messner (Republican): +1000 odds, 8.5% implied probability

New Jersey

  • Cory Booker (Democrat): -10000 odds, 91.6% implied probability
  • Rikin Mehta (Republican): +1000 odds, 8.4% implied probability

New Mexico

  • Ben Ray Lujan (Democrat): -1667 odds, 87.6% implied probability
  • Mark Ronchetti (Republican): +650 odds, 12.4% implied probability

North Carolina

  • Cal Cunningham (Democrat): -200 odds, 63.7% implied probability
  • Thom Tillis (Republican): +163 odds, 36.3% implied probability

Oklahoma

  • Jim Inhofe (Republican): -10000 odds, 91.6% implied probability
  • Abby Broyles (Democrat): +1000 odds, 8.4% implied probability

Oregon

  • Jeff Merkley (Democrat): -10000 odds, 92.8% implied probability
  • Jo Rae Perkins (Republican): +1200 odds, 7.2% implied probability

Rhode Island

  • Jack Reed (Democrat): -10000 odds, 91.6% implied probability
  • Allen Waters (Republican): +1000 odds, 8.4% implied probability

South Carolina

  • Lindsey Graham (Republican): -333, 71.1% implied probability
  • Jaime Harrison (Democrat): +220, 28.9% implied probability

South Dakota

  • Mike Rounds (Republican): -10000 odds, 93.7% implied probability
  • Daniel Ahlers (Democrat): +1400 odds, 6.3% implied probability

Tennessee

  • Bill Hagerty (Republican): -10000 odds, 92.8% implied probability
  • Marquita Bradshaw (Democrat): +1200 odds, 7.2% implied probability

Texas

  • John Cornyn (Republican): -1000 odds, 87.2% implied probability
  • MJ Hegar (Democrat): +650 odds, 12.8% implied probability

Virginia

  • Mark Warner (Democrat): -10000 odds, 91.6% implied probability
  • Daniel Gade (Republican): +1000 odds, 8.4% implied probability

West Virginia

  • Shelley Moore Capito (Republican): -10000 odds, 91.6% implied probability
  • Paula Jean Swearengin (Democrat): +1000 odds, 8.4% implied probability

Wyoming

  • Cynthia Lummis (Republican): -10000 odds, 91.6% implied probability
  • Merav Ben-David (Democrat): +1000 odds, 8.4% implied probability
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