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2020 Election Odds & Predictions: Biden Wins After Outlets Begin Calling Pennsylvania

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Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden

 Joe Biden is the President-Elect of the United States after multiple networks and media outlets called Pennsylvania for the Democrats on Saturday morning, giving him 273 electoral votes.

2020 Election Odds

Candidate
Odds
Percent Chance
Joe Biden
OFF
OFF
Donald Trump
OFF
OFF
Odds as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Saturday and via European sportsbook Betfair. Note that the implied probabilities do not include the vig the book charges.

2020 Election Odds Updates

11:30 a.m. ET, Sat.

Many networks and media outlets have begun calling Pennsylvania for Joe Biden, giving him 273 electoral votes, more than the 270 needed to secure the presidency.

For now, this tracker will be retired.

6:30 a.m. ET, Sat.

Very little changed overnight, as Joe Biden continues to hold a commanding lead as the remaining votes still need to be counted.

  • Joe Biden: -2000 (93% chance)
  • Donald Trump: +1300 (7% chance)
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Biden’s odds did dip a bit a bit since our last update, but at -2000 the former Vice President still has a 93% implied probability to defeat Donald Trump.

Here’s how the odds have moved since the eve of Election Night:

Time ET
Biden Odds
Trump Odds
11:30 p.m., Mon.
66.6%
33.3%
2 a.m., Tues.
61.4%
38.6%
8 a.m.
61.4%
38.6%
9 a.m.
63.2%
36.8%
10 a.m.
61.4%
38.6%
10:20 a.m.
66.7%
33.3%
11:45 a.m.
66.7%
33.3%
12:50 p.m.
68.2%
31.8%
2 p.m.
68.2%
31.8%
3 p.m.
68.2%
31.8%
4 p.m.
68.2%
31.8%
5 p.m.
68.2%
31.8%
6:15 p.m.
67.3%
32.7%
7:45 p.m.
54.8%
45.2%
8:15 p.m.
53.1%
46.9%
8:45 p.m.
59.5%
40.5%
9:15 p.m.
48.4%
51.2%
9:45 p.m.
32.5%
67.5%
10 p.m.
25.8%
74.2%
10:25 p.m.
27.1%
72.9%
10:40 p.m.
30.7%
69.3%
11 p.m.
30%
70%
11:15 p.m.
28.3%
71.7%
11:30 p.m.
39.4%
60.6%
12:15 a.m., Wed.
45%
55%
12:45 a.m.
45%
55%
1:15 a.m.
42.3%
57.7%
1:45 a.m.
38.4%
61.6%
2 a.m.
33%
67%
2:45 a.m.
32.2%
66.8%
3:30 a.m.
41.3%
58.7%
4:30 a.m.
29.2%
70.8%
4:45 a.m.
43.1%
56.9%
5 a.m.
48.4%
51.6%
5:25 a.m.
57.1%
42.9%
6:15 a.m.
61.5%
38.5%
7:10 a.m.
68.4%
31.6%
8 a.m. 
76.9%
23.1%
9 a.m. 
74.8%
25.2%
9:15 a.m. 
78.4%
21.6%
10:10 a.m.
82.9%
17.1%
11:10 a.m.
80.7%
19.3%
12:05 p.m. 
81.5%
18.5%
1:05 p.m. 
81.7%
18.3%
2:05 p.m. 
73.8%
26.2%
3 p.m.
79.3%
20.7%
4:15 p.m.
83.6%
16.4%
4:40 p.m.
86.2%
13.8%
5:50 p.m.
86.2%
13.8%
7 p.m.
87.5%
12.5%
8 p.m.
86.7%
12.3%
9:15 p.m.
87.8%
12.2%
10 p.m.
89.2%
10.8%
11:30 p.m.
90%
10%
1:15 a.m., Thurs.
87.2%
12.8%
7 a.m.
84.2%
15.6%
8 a.m.
84.8%
15.2%
9 a.m.
84.9%
15.1%
10 a.m.
87.5%
12.5%
11 a.m.
84.1%
15.9%
12 p.m.
85.4%
14.6%
1:30 p.m.
89.4%
10.6%
2:30 p.m.
90.5%
9.5%
3:50 p.m.
91.7%
8.3%
5:35 p.m.
93.1%
6.9%
6:45 p.m.
90.9%
9.1%
7:45 p.m.
91%
9%
8:05 p.m.
93.1%
6.9%
9 p.m.
93.3%
6.7%
10 p.m.
92.7%
7.3%
11 p.m.
93.6%
6.4%
11:40 p.m.
94.5%
5.5%
7 a.m., Fri.
93.5%
6.5%
8 a.m.
93%
7%
9 a.m.
93%
7%
10 a.m.
95%
5%
3:30 p.m.
96.7%
3.3%
7 p.m.
95.8%
4.2%
9:45 p.m.
95.8%
4.2%
9:45 p.m.
93%
7%
Via European sportsbook Betfair. Note that the implied probabilities do not include the tax the book charges.

9:30 p.m. ET

It’s been 2.5 hours since we last checked in … and nothing has changed in the betting odds for who will be the next President of the United States. Joe Biden remains a huge favorite to win the Presidency as votes continue to be counted in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

Here are the latest odds from Betfair:

  • Joe Biden: -2500 (95.8% chance)
  • Donald Trump: +2900 (4.2% chance)

Biden is more than a -1500 favorite (approximately a 94% chance to win) Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona. If he wins Pennsylvania, Biden wins the Presidency. If he wins Georgia and Arizona, Biden wins the Presidency.

In reality, Biden has an 87.2% chance to win all three of the aforementioned states, according to the latest state-by-state betting odds. Doing so would obviously secure the White House for the former Vice President.

7 p.m. ET

We’re still waiting for the result to become official, but if the latest betting odds on the President race are any indication, Joe Biden will almost surely beat Donald Trump:

  • Joe Biden: -2500 (95.8% chance)
  • Donald Trump: +2900 (4.2% chance)

These odds actually give Trump a slight boost (+0.9 points) from his odds 3.5 hours ago, but a comeback victory appears unlikely both according to the odds and the latest vote counts in the four undecided states.

Biden has growing leads in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. If he wins Pennsylvania, he wins the Presidency. Votes will continue to roll in throughout the night (and likely throughout the weekend), and we’ll keep these odds updated so long as Betfair continues to post them.

3:30 p.m. ET

As we continue to wait for races in key states to be called — including Pennsylvania, where Joe Biden has taken a recent lead — the betting odds continue to rise slightly in favor of Biden’s favor. Since 10 a.m. ET, Biden’s implied probability to win has increased from 95% to 96.7%:

  • Joe Biden: -10000 (96.7% chance)
  • Donald Trump: +2900 (3.3% chance)

Biden has a narrow lead in Pennsylvania as of writing, and is currently favored 92.2% to Trump’s 7.8% according to the odds at Betfair. With 253 electoral votes, Pennsylvania’s 20 would help Biden eclipse the 270 needed to win.

10 a.m. ET

Joe Biden has now taken the lead in both Georgia and Pennsylvania, leaving Donald Trump very little chance of re-election.

  • Donald Trump: +1850 (5% chance)
  • Joe Biden: -3333 (95% chance)

A win in Pennsylvania alone would seal the deal for Biden, and that doesn’t include his current leads in Georgia, Nevada and Arizona.

9 a.m. ET

Presidential odds have not budged since our last update, sitting exactly where they were at 8 a.m. ET:

  • Donald Trump: +1300 (7%)
  • Joe Biden: -2000 (93%)

In the latest update from Philadelphia, Biden has officially taken the lead in Pennsylvania by more than 5,000 votes, so don’t be surprised to see his odds improve even more in future updates.

8 a.m. ET

Biden’s odds continue to suggest that the former Vice President holds a significant lead over Trump. Let’s take a look at the latest numbers:

  • Donald Trump: +1300 (7%)
  • Joe Biden: -2000 (93%)

As you can see, odds of -2000 suggest that Biden has a 93% chance to win the election.

All eyes will now focus on Pennsylvania this morning as Biden has closed the gap to just over 18,000 votes.

7 a.m. ET, Friday

Joe Biden took an overnight lead in Georgia and now holds a 917 vote lead over Donald Trump with 99% of precincts reporting.

Biden has also cut Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania to 18,042 votes with 3% of the state’s vote remaining.

Here’s how the race stands:

  • Donald Trump: +1400 (6.5%)
  • Joe Biden: -2500 (93.5%)

At this point, Biden has the lead in the Georgia, is closing in on Pennsylvania and holds advantages in Nevada and Arizona, so it’s not all that surprising to see him as such a massive favorite to start the day on Friday.

11:40 p.m. ET

Joe Biden’s odds to win the Presidency continue to rise at Betfair, a European sportsbook. Here are the latest numbers:

  • Donald Trump: +1400 (5.5%)
  • Joe Biden: -2000 (94.5%)

This comes as Donald Trump’s leads in Pennsylvania and Georgia are slowly slipping away. He’s up by fewer than 2,000 votes in Georgia and 25,000 votes in Pennsylvania with only mail-in votes left to be counted. The mail-in vote has been cast for Biden at a heavy rate in both states, so the betting market is expecting the former Vice President to take one (or both) states.

If Biden wins Pennsylvania, he’s the next President of the United States.

11 p.m. ET

President Donald Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania is down to around 26,000 votes. It’s been shrinking for the better part of two days as the state has been counting mail-in votes that heavily tilt in Joe Biden’s favor.

Here are the latest betting odds for the Presidential Election:

  • Donald Trump: +1450 (6.4%)
  • Joe Biden: -1667 (93.6%)

These are Biden’s best odds to win all race.

If Joe Biden wins Pennsylvania, he wins the Presidency. Biden is also favored to win Arizona and Georgia. There’s a chance he gets above 300 Electoral College votes by the time it’s all said and done.

10 p.m. ET

In the last hour, President Donald Trump got some good news in Arizona, but it was more than offset by shrinking leads in Pennsylvania and Georgia. Here are the latest odds to win the Presidency at Betfair in Europe:

  • Donald Trump: +1250 (7.3%)
  • Joe Biden: -1429 (92.7%)

This is 0.6% jump for Trump as we wait on more numbers to come in.

9 p.m. ET

We’ve been tracking the odds to win the 2020 Presidential Election since February and Joe Biden has never had a better chance to win than he does now:

  • Donald Trump: +1400 (6.7%)
  • Joe Biden: -1429 (93.3%)

This news comes as votes continue to roll into Pennsylvania that appear to be extremely favorable for the former Vice President as he eats into Trumps lead. We’re supposed to get updated numbers from Arizona shortly, so stay tuned for more odds updates.

8:05 p.m. ET

Donald Trump’s odds to win the Presidency have hit an all-time low:

  • Donald Trump: +1350 (6.9%)
  • Joe Biden: -1429 (93.1%)

There are still five states still yet to be called — Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona — and the President is leading in three of them (PA, GA, NC). But there are still millions of ballots that have yet to be counted, and Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania and Georgia continues to shrink.

Biden only needs to win Pennsylvania to become the next President.

7:45 p.m. ET

Joe Biden has almost pulled even with Donald Trump in Georgia with plenty of votes left to be counted. Trump’s once-massive lead in Pennsylvania is shrinking. And the numbers in Nevada don’t look good for the President. So it’s no surprise that the odds are moving away from Trump:

  • Donald Trump: +1000 (9%)
  • Joe Biden: -1111 (91%)

If Biden wins Pennsylvania, he wins the Electoral College, with multiple states still pending.

6:45 p.m. ET

The latest vote counts are trending against President Donald Trump in the key swing states of Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada, and as a result, Joe Biden remains a huge favorite to win the President:

  • Donald Trump: +900 (9.9%)
  • Joe Biden: -1000 (90.1%)

This is down a bit from Biden’s high of 93.1% in the 5 p.m hour, but it’s still a significant lead for the former Vice President and quite a turnaround from 36 hours ago when Biden’s odds bottomed out at 29.2% chance at 4:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday morning.

5:35 p.m. ET

Former Vice President Joe Biden’s odds in the 2020 Presidential Election have consistently ticked up throughout the day. Biden’s chances continue to reach new highs and his implied odds now reflect a 93.13% chance to win this race. Biden and President Donald Trump are still awaiting vote totals from four swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

  • Donald Trump: +1355 (6.87%)
  • Joe Biden: -1355 (93.13%)

3:50 p.m. ET

Joe Biden’s odds to win the 2020 Presidential Election have held steady above the 90% mark. Biden’s odds have increased slowly but steadily as outstanding ballots continue to be counted in four key state: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

  • Donald Trump: +1100 (8.33%)
  • Joe Biden: -1100 (91.67%)

2:30 p.m. ET

Joe Biden is now a 90.5% favorite to win the 2020 Presidential Election. The former Vice President’s odds have continued to improve throughout the afternoon as more and more votes have been tabulated in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada.

  • Donald Trump: +900 (9.5% chance)
  • Joe Biden: -2000 (90.5% chance)

1:30 p.m. ET

Joe Biden’s odds continue to shorten over the course of the day. Nevada and Georgia have both released votes over the past hour and the numbers continue to break right for Biden in both states. According to the odds, Biden is close to a 90% favorite to be the next president.

  • Donald Trump: +800 (10.6% chance)
  • Joe Biden: -1429 (89.4% chance)

12 p.m. ET

Joe Biden’s odds have improved over the past hour after a small batch of released votes out of Nevada increased the former Vice President’s lead from roughly 8,000 votes to just under 12,000. Biden is

  • Donald Trump: +550 (14.6% chance)
  • Joe Biden: -900 (85.4%)

11 a.m. ET

Donald Trump’s chances improved slightly in the last hour as it still looks like he can squeak out Georgia — though he does remain an underdog there.

  • Donald Trump: +500 (15.9% chance)
  • Joe Biden: -769 (84.1% chance)

10 a.m. ET

For the first time in the past few hours, votes have started trickling in and the betting market is reacting as the margins close in both Pennsylvania and Georgia.

  • Donald Trump: +680 (12.5% chance)
  • Joe Biden: -909 (87.5% chance)

Joe Biden’s odds have hit -909, which translates to an 87.5% implied probability.

Conversely, Donald Trump’s odds have dropped to +680, putting his probability of winning a second term at 12.5%.

9 a.m. ET

There have been few updates in voting counts for the key swing states, like Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona, so it’s not surprising that election odds have barely budged since 8 a.m.

  • Donald Trump: +540 (15.1% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: -714 (84.9%) implied probability)

Presidential odds should see some movement later in the day, but don’t expect much until the next round of voting counts start rolling in.

8 a.m. ET

Thursday morning continues to be an uneventful one, with very little movement in terms of presidential election odds.

  • Donald Trump: +540 (15.2% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: -667 (84.8%) implied probability)

Joe Biden’s implied probability has adjusted slightly from 84.4% to 84.8% over the past hour, while Donald Trump has moved from 15.6% to 15.2%.

7 a.m. ET

It was a quiet night in terms of election odds, with Joe Biden’s implied probability ticking down just a bit from 87.2% to 84.4%.

  • Donald Trump: +520 (15.6% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: -667 (84.4% implied probability)

For much of the afternoon and evening yesterday, Biden’s win percentage sat between 80%-85%, even touching 90% last on Wednesday night.

1:15 p.m. ET

With very little new voting data rolling in so far, the odds to win the Presidency remain heavily in favor of Joe Biden:

  • Donald Trump: +580 (14.6% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: -625 (85.4% implied probability)

This is a 4.6% boost for the President’s odds since the last time we checked in. Biden is still a heavy favorite to win three key states: Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia.

11:30 p.m. ET

The picture isn’t getting any prettier for President Donald Trump. Here are his latest odds to win a second term, according to Betfair in Europe:

  • Donald Trump: +900 (10% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: -909 (90% implied probability)

Why hasn’t Trump been able to re-gain any momentum that he had at this point on Tuesday night, when he had a 71.7% chance to win? The three most important states left on the board — Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia — continue to look bleak, if the betting market is to be believed.

His current chances to win each of those three states:

If Trump loses Pennsylvania, the race is over. If he survives there but loses the other two states, the race is over. In short, Trump needs to win both Pennsylvania AND either Arizona or Georgia, before trying to mount a comeback in Nevada.

It appears to be a tall task, hence the long odds.

10 p.m. ET

For the first time in this election, Joe Biden is favored to win the state of Georgia at Betfair in Europe, and it’s helped increase his odds to win the Presidency:

  • Donald Trump: +820 (10.8% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: -910 (89.2% implied probability)

This is another all-time high for Biden, as securing Georgia would open the map even more for him. The former VP would need to win just one other state to take the White House.

9:15 p.m. ET

The latest odds to win the Presidential race continue to move ever-so-slightly toward Joe Biden, as the final votes in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada get tabulated.

  • Donald Trump: +720 (12.2% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: -714 (87.8% implied probability)

Biden is a significant favorite in both Pennsylvania and Arizona. He also recently moved to being a slight favorite in Georgia, according to Betfair’s odds. Winning Pennsylvania would get Biden above the magic number of 270 Electoral College votes. Winning Arizona and losing Pennsylvania would require Biden to win at least one of Nevada, Georgia or North Carolina.

8 p.m. ET

Betfair made a small move in the 7-8 p.m. window without much news, knocking Donald Trump down from +650 to +600 while leaving Joe Biden the same at -1428.

All that does is increase the vig in this market; it doesn’t really change much in terms of probabilities.

7 p.m. ET

A lesson in implied probability — as American odds seem to rise in a big way, the probability doesn’t change all that much.

Joe Biden went from around -650 earlier this evening to -1428 at Betfair, but his chances of winning the election only improved by between 1-2%.

Still, Biden is a massive favorite as he closes the gaps in Pennsylvania and Georgia especially.

5:50 p.m. ET

Joe Biden emerged with his best odds of the election around 4:40 p.m. ET and has held steady since:

  • Donald Trump: +620 (13.8% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: -667 (86.2% implied probability)

With Biden projected to win Michigan and Wisconsin as well as leading in two more key states — Arizona and Nevada — that could be called by Wednesday night, it’s possible a projected winner is announced before Thursday.

4:40 p.m. ET

The election appears to be getting away from President Donald Trump, according to the latest betting odds from Betfair in Europe:

  • Donald Trump: +620 (13.8% chance)
  • Joe Biden: -667 (86.2% chance)

This comes on the heels of CNN projecting Biden to win the key swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin. All that the former Vice President needs to win the race is Arizona and Nevada, both of which he’s currently favored to pull out. If one of those fails to come through, a victory in either Pennsylvania or Georgia would put Biden over the top.

Biden’s current odds are an incredible turnaround from where he stood just 12 hours ago. At 4:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday morning, Biden’s odds bottomed out at a 29.2%, but 15 minutes later Biden started to get some promising numbers out of Wisconsin — and the good news hasn’t stopped since for the former VP.

4:15 p.m. ET

Between 1 and 2 p.m. ET, Donald Trump appeared to be mounting a comeback on the oddsboard, but that has since evaporated — Trump now has his worst odds of this election cycle while Joe Biden has his best:

  • Donald Trump: +500 (16.4% chance)
  • Joe Biden: -555 (83.6% chance)

CNN is now projecting Biden to win Michigan.

3 p.m. ET

After Donald Trump tightened the gap between he and Joe Biden on the oddsboard between 1 and 2 p.m. ET — improving his implied probability from 18.3% chance to 26.2% over that span — the market has shifted back in Joe Biden’s favor over the past hour:

  • Donald Trump: +380 (20.7% chance)
  • Joe Biden: -400 (79.3% chance)

That’s a 5.5% boost for Biden, who is projected to win Wisconsin, bringing his current electoral vote lead to 237 vs. 213 for Trump.

2:05 p.m. ET

After a morning and early afternoon that was all Biden, odds movement suggests that Trump could be mounting a comeback.

  • Donald Trump: +275 (26.2% chance)
  • Joe Biden: -303 (73.8% chance)

While Biden is still the betting favorite, Trump has tightened the gap with his implied probability improving from 18.3% to 26.2% over the past hour.

Conversely, this is the first time that Biden’s implied probability has dipped below 80% since 9:15 a.m. ET.

1:05 p.m. ET

Once again it has been an uneventful hour regarding betting odds, with numbers barely budging since our last update:

  • Donald Trump: +430 (18.3% chance)
  • Joe Biden: -526 (81.7% chance)

Expect more of the same until crucial swing states begin updating voting numbers throughout the day.

12:05 p.m. ET

Presidential odds have remained quiet for the past two hours, with Joe Biden now -500 against Donald Trump.

Here’s where the betting market stands just past noon ET on Wednesday:

  • Donald Trump: +430 (18.5% chance)
  • Joe Biden: -500 (81.5% chance)

Since our last update, Biden won Wisconsin, though that didn’t affect odds as the result was already priced into the market.

11:10 a.m. ET

After plenty of movement in Joe Biden’s favor throughout Wednesday morning, betting odds have stabilized a bit over the past hour.

  • Donald Trump: +410 (19.3% chance)
  • Joe Biden: -455 (80.7% chance)

While Biden’s implied probability has slimmed from 82.9% to 80.7%, the recent adjustments have been very minimal overall.

It’ll now be interesting to monitor how odds move as more votes, and states, are called throughout Wednesday afternoon and evening.

10:10 a.m. ET

The last hour has seen more of the same as Joe Biden’s odds have stretched to -556, which correlates to an 82.9% chance of winning the election.

To put this in perspective, Biden’s implied probability sat at 48.4% at 5 a.m. ET Wednesday.

Here’s where the odds currently sit as we enter late morning on Wednesday:

  • Donald Trump: +470 (17.1% chance)
  • Joe Biden: -556 (82.9% chance)

At -556, Biden’s odds have a set new high mark for the former Vice President.

9:15 a.m. ET

Joe Biden now has the lead in both Michigan and Wisconsin, with some votes still to be counted in both states. The news is helping boost his odds at the Betfair Exchange in Europe:

  • Donald Trump: +360 (21.6% chance)
  • Joe Biden: -370 (78.4% chance)

These are Biden’s best odds to win the Presidency ever.

9 a.m. ET

More than $570 million has been wagered on the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election at the Betfair Exchange in Europe, and Joe Biden remains a sizable favorite to beat Donald Trump after an early morning odds shift in the former VP’s favor.

The current odds:

  • Donald Trump: +295 (25.2% chance)
  • Joe Biden: -300 (74.8% chance)

These numbers are slightly down for Biden (-2.1 points) from what we saw at 8 a.m. ET.

This overall shift in the race is the result of Michigan and Wisconsin swinging in a significant way toward the former Vice President. Biden is also considered a favorite to win Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania, and he’s a slight underdog in Georgia.

Biden would be guaranteed to win the Electoral College if he wins four of the six aforementioned states.

8 a.m. ET

Joe Biden is stretching out his lead over Donald Trump to win the election.

As votes continue to roll in, the betting market has become more and more bullish on Biden on Wednesday morning.

  • Donald Trump: +320 (23.1% chance)
  • Joe Biden: -385 (76.9% chance)

At -385, Biden now has a 76.9% chance to win the presidency, which is the highest since we started tracking odds since the race started.

7:10 a.m. ET

As the sun rises on the East Coast, so have Joe Biden’s Presidential odds. Just one hour ago, the former Vice President’s odds sat at -159, which correlates to a 61.5% chance to win.

Those odds have improved to -233, for a 68.4% implied probability after accounting for the vig.

Here’s the latest odds for both candidates:

  • Donald Trump: +210 (31.6% chance)
  • Joe Biden: -233 (68.4% chance)

6:15 a.m. ET

The tides appear to be turning (again) in this race. Joe Biden started the day as a big favorite before plummeting to as low as a 25.8% chance to win at 10 p.m. ET. Now? He’s the odds-on favorite to win the election:

  • Donald Trump: +160 (38.5% chance)
  • Joe Biden: -159 (61.5% chance)

Why the big shift from just eight hours ago? Biden has seen some positive movement in both Wisconsin and Michigan as more votes have been tabulated. The race in Nevada has grown tighter, but Biden still leads and all of the votes left to be counted there are mail-in/absentee, which has heavily favored Biden in this race. Lastly, a few different news organizations have called Arizona for the former VP. It’s far from final, but Biden appears to be looking good there, as well.

If Biden takes all of the aforementioned states, he’d win the election — even if he loses Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina, all of which are still in play to varying degrees.

In short, Biden appears to have a few paths to victory as more votes get tabulates, which helps explains why his odds. are on the move.

5:25 a.m. ET

It’s been about eight hours since we’ve been able to say this: Joe Biden is again the favorite to win the 2020 Presidential Election, according to the latest odds from Betfair in Europe:

  • Donald Trump: +132 (42.9% chance)
  • Joe Biden: -135 (57.1% chance)

This is a 27.9-point bump for Biden since 4:30 a.m. ET, when he bottomed out at a 29.2% chance to win.

5 a.m. ET

It’s only been 15 minutes since some massive news for Joe Biden in the state of Wisconsin, and the betting odds continue to move toward the former VP.

The odds to win the Presidency are now close to a coinflip:

  • Donald Trump: -105 (51.6% chance)
  • Joe Biden: +104 (48.4% chance)

How quickly can things change in this race? A half-hour ago, Biden’s odds to win were roughly 29%, so he’s seen nearly a 20-point bump on the heels of some positive early news in Wisconsin.

It’s worth noting Biden is also getting good news from Michigan, another state with a large chunk of yet-to-be-counted votes. Trump’s lead there has shrunk a bit with Wayne County, which houses Detroit, still with approximately 50% of its votes left to be tabulated.

4:45 a.m. ET

We’re (finally) starting to get some news from the key swing state of Wisconsin. Donald Trump had been ahead in the state by more than 100,000 votes, but after a large chunk of votes came in from heavily Democatric Milwaukee Country, flipping Joe Biden to the lead by 10,000+ votes with 90% reporting.

While it’s far from final, this would appear to be a good sign for Biden’s chances to flip Wisconsin to blue in 2020.

Here’s how it impacted the overall odds to win the race:

  • Donald Trump: -130 (56.9% chance)
  • Joe Biden: +134 (43.1% chance)

This is a massive boost to Biden’s chances. Just 15 minutes ago, Biden’s odds had dipped to +240 (29.2% chance).

4:30 a.m. ET

We haven’t had any new states called — or really any significant in the states that are still pending — in the past hour, but the odds at Betfair in Europe have swung considerably toward President Donald Trump.

An hour ago, the odds for a Trump victory were effectively 59%. Now?

  • Donald Trump: -250 (70.8% chance)
  • Joe Biden: +240 (29.2% chance)

That’s nearly a 12-point swing in favor of the President.

3:30 a.m. ET

With multiple states still hanging in the balance — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin — the betting odds are moving away from President Donald Trump and toward former Vice President Joe Biden.

Trump is ahead each of the aforementioned states, except for Arizona, but it’s worth noting that the majority of votes left to be counted are mail-in ballots, which are expected to skew more toward Biden.

As we’ve gotten more specifics on these outstanding ballots, the odds at Betfair have shifted slightly toward Biden, though the former Vice President remains an underdog:

  • Donald Trump: -143 (58.7% chance)
  • Joe Biden: +142 (41.3% chance)

This is a 9.1% boost to Biden’s chances.

2:45 a.m. ET

President Donald Trump just got done giving a speech in which he tried to declare victory and said he would try to go to the U.S. Supreme Court to stop counting votes in specific states from being counted. (Note: Legal experts agree Trump would have no grounds to do this.)

Regardless of the claim, Trump’s odds to win the election at Betfair were unmoved by his speech:

  • Donald Trump: -204 (66.8% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +200 (33.2% implied probability)

These are virtually identical to what the odds were at 2 a.m. Here’s the hour-by-hour rundown:

2 a.m. ET

The odds continue to move in Donald Trump’s favor:

  • Donald Trump: -208 (67% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +200 (33% implied probability)

This is a big jump for Trump from where he was at 12:45 a.m. ET (55% chance to win), but he’s still significantly down from his odds at 10 p.m. ET (74.2%).

The reason for the change? Trump is now a pretty significant favorite to win four key states at Betfair: Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

(Note: Betfair took down its state-by-state markets shortly after this update was published.)

For context on how the betting market has evolved as the final stretch of the presidential race has taken shape, here’s an hour-by-hour look:

1:45 a.m. ET

Donald Trump’s odds to win the Presidency keep inching up as we get late into the night on the East coast. Trump is a big betting favorite to win Georgia, despite some predictive models thinking that is still a very tight race. Same with Pennsylvania.

All of that is informing the latest odds:

  • Donald Trump: -161 (61.6% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +160 (38.4% implied probability)

1:15 a.m. ET

Donald Trump has claimed three key victories on Election Night: In Florida, Ohio and Iowa. And as of writing, he’s favored to win in Pennsylvania and Georgia according to the latest state odds from Betfair.

Overall, though, the election odds have stabilized over the past hour. Here’s where they currently sit:

  • Donald Trump: -136 (57.7% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +136 (42.3% implied probability)

We’ll continue to monitor how the odds evolve over the coming hours and days, as votes in key swing states like Pennsylvania are expected to still be counted between now and Friday.

12:45 a.m. ET

With states like Pennsylvania not expected to have votes counted until as late as Friday, the election is far from over.

After heavy movement in the odds throughout Election Day — most notably with Trump emerging with his highest odds yet (74.2% implied probability) at 10 p.m. ET on Tuesday — the betting market now seems to reflect the tightness of the race at this point:

  • Donald Trump: -123 (55% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +122 (45% implied probability)

12:15 a.m. ET

We’re still a long way from this election being over, but some key states are starting to turn in Joe Biden’s direction, according to the betting market.

Betfair has Biden is now favored in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin. That, plus Biden looking good in Arizona, has resulted in the overall odds for the race continuing to move in his direction after bottoming out at 25.8% chance to win at 10 p.m. ET.

The current odds:

  • Donald Trump: -125 (55% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +120 (45% implied probability)

This is a +20% change for Biden from his odds just a little more than two hours ago.

11:30 p.m. ET

The betting market may have overreacted to what appears will be a convincing Trump victory in the state of Florida. Betting odds are starting to shift back to former Vice President Joe Biden, though he far from the favorite he was earlier on Election Day.

Here are the current odds:

  • Donald Trump: -156 (60.6% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +152 (39.4% implied probability)

This is a huge bump from 10 p.m. ET, when Biden bottomed out at 25.8% chance.

11:15 p.m. ET

Donald Trump’s odds to win the presidency peaked at 74.2% at 10 p.m. ET today. His current odds are that high, but they’re not too far off:

  • Donald Trump: -250 (71.7% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +255 (28.3% implied probability)

Biden’s chances are up 2.5% since bottoming out at 10 p.m. ET, but he still has a lot way to go to climb back to his Election Day high of 68.2%, which held strong from 1-5 p.m. ET.

11 p.m. ET

With two hours until the final polls close, betting markets are giving Donald Trump a 70% chance to win re-election:

  • Donald Trump: -300 (70% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +210 (30% implied probability)

Trump hit his peak of 74.2% at 10 p.m. ET, with Biden since gaining some ground on the oddsboard with a 4.2% increase over the past hour.

10:40 p.m. ET

After hitting a high of -400 odds with a 74.2% implied probability 40 minutes ago, Donald Trump has maintained a significant lead over the Joe Biden on the oddsboard, though has slightly fallen since:

  • Donald Trump: -303 (69.3% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +200 (30.7% implied probability)

This is around a +4.9% boost for Biden’s odds since our 10 p.m. ET update.

Here’s an hour-by-hour look at how the odds have evolved over Election Day:

10:25 p.m. ET

The presidential betting odds have moved slightly toward Joe Biden in the past 25 minutes:

  • Donald Trump: -333 (72.9% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +250 (27.1% implied probability)

This is around a +1.3% boost to Biden from our 10 p.m. ET update.

10 p.m. ET

The votes keep coming in and the odds keep swinging toward President Donald Trump. The current odds:

  • Donald Trump: -400 (74.2% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +260 (25.8% implied probability)

9:45 p.m. ET

Less than an hour after emerging as the odds-on favorite to win the election for the first time since May, President Donald Trump has padded his lead over Joe Biden in the betting market:

  • Donald Trump: -333 (67.5% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +188 (32.5% implied probability)

Trump is now favored to win three key swing states, per the odds at Betfair:

9:15 p.m. ET

Donald Trump is the odds-on favorite to win the election for the first time since May 5, according to the betting odds at Betfair.

8:45 p.m. ET

Good early results in Florida shifted the betting odds significantly toward President Donald Trump, but Joe Biden’s odds have bounced back. Here are the current odds for each candidate, according to European sportsbook Betfair:

  • Joe Biden: -161 (59.5% implied probability)
  • Donald Trump: +138 (40.5% implied probability)

While Biden hasn’t rebounded to his Election Day high of 68.2%, it’s important to remember that the election was a mere coinflip a half-hour ago, which shows how quickly things can change in a race like this.

One potential reason for the shift? It appears Biden has a better chance to win Ohio than polls expected. The betting market makes his current odds to take the state +120, which is equivalent to a 45.5% chance and higher than where he opened the day +175.

8:15 p.m. ET

Donald Trump continues to gain ground on Joe Biden on the oddsboard as more polls close.

  • Biden: -120 (53.1% implied probability)
  • Trump: +100 (46.9% implied probability)

Over the past two hours, Trump’s chances of being re-elected have jumped from 32.7% to 46.9% — a 14.2% swing, his highest implied probability since Sept. 29.

Looking for more election odds? Subscribe to The Action Network’s newsletter to get updates throughout the 2020 race.

Here’s the full hour-by-hour rundown of election odds activity on Tuesday at the European sportsbook Betfair. (Each candidate’s high mark today highlighted in green.)

7:45 p.m. ET

After hours of a stagnant betting market, Donald Trump’s implied probability based on the election odds at Betfair have hit the highest point since Sept. 29:

  • Joe Biden: -136 (54.8%)
  • Donald Trump: +110 (45.2%)

Over the past 90 minutes since our last update, Trump’s chances of being re-elected have jumped from 32.7% to 45.2% — a 12.5% swing.

6:15 p.m. ET

We’ve got our first presidential odds movement in the last five-and-a-half hours. It’s a small move, but still a move nonetheless:

  • Joe Biden -250 (67.3% implied probability)
  • Donald Trump +188 (32.7% implied probability)

Biden’s betting odds stayed the same, but Trump’s odds shortened a touch, causing his chances of winning to bump up slightly from 31.8% to 32.7%. That also caused Biden’s chances to dip a bit, from 68.2% to 67.3%.

5 p.m. ET

With the first exit poll results in and another hour to go before the first polls officially close, the 2020 election odds remain exactly where they’ve been over the past four hours:

  • Joe Biden -250 (68.2% implied probability)
  • Donald Trump +188 (31.8% implied probability)

4 p.m. ET

With an hour to go until the first exit polls are in at 5 p.m. ET, the election odds continue to hold steady, not budging over the past three hours:

  • Joe Biden -250 (68.2% implied probability)
  • Donald Trump +188 (31.8% implied probability)

3 p.m. ET

The 2020 election odds have held steady over the past two hours:

  • Joe Biden -250 (68.2% implied probability)
  • Donald Trump +188 (31.8% implied probability)

Heading into Election Day, Biden’s odds gave him a 66.6% implied probability of winning. His odds fell overnight, hitting an Election Day low of 61.4% at three different hours (between 2 and 10 a.m. ET). Over that same span, Trump’s odds hit an Election Day high of 38.6% at those three hour markers.

Then Biden’s odds bounced to 68.2% around 12:50 p.m. ET as Trump’s fell to 31.8%, where they’ve remained since.

2 p.m. ET

No change in Donald Trump or Joe Biden’s odds to win the presidency from our update an hour ago. The odds at Betfair remain as follows:

  • Joe Biden -250 (68.2%)
  • Donald Trump +188 (31.8%)

These odds represent an all-time high for Biden and an all-time low for Trump. It’ll be interesting to see which direction they go from here as we’re five hours away from the starting to get some hard data from key swing states.

12:50 p.m. ET

The Biden momentum continues. The latest U.S. Presidential betting odds from European bookmaker Betfair imply that the former Vice President has more than a 68% chance to win the election:

  • Joe Biden -250 (68.2%)
  • Donald Trump +188 (31.8%)

This is a +1.5% Biden shift from an hour ago, +6.8% change from 8 a.m. ET, and, perhaps most notably, Biden’s best odds to win all race. His previous high came back on Oct. 13, when he had a 67.6% chance, according to Betfair’s odds.

The inverse is true for Trump: These are the President’s worst odds of the day and his lowest chances to win since Oct. 13, when his odds implied a 30.6% chance of returning to the White House for a second term.

11:45 a.m. ET

After a volatile morning of election odds movement, the market appears to have stabilize back where it started the day:

  • Joe Biden -227 (66.7%)
  • Donald Trump +188 (33.3%)

It’s hardly a surprise to see stability return to a race that has been defined by it. Contrary to the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election between Trump and Hillary Clinton, we really haven’t seen any major odds shifts in the past month-plus.

At Betfair, Trump has never had more than a 40% chance to win since the calendar turned to October.

10:20 a.m. ET

Joe Biden is clearly taking some bets this morning in Europe. After his odds bottomed out at -175 (61.4% chance) at 8 a.m., he’s fully recovered back to his high of -227 (66.7% chance) as of 10:20 a.m. ET.

Donald Trump’s odds, meanwhile, have dropped from 38.6% (+150) this morning to 33.3% (+188) now.

10:00 a.m. ET

Joe Biden’s odds to win the Presidency are officially back on the rise. After Biden had maintained a healthy 67-33 lead for much of the past week, the betting market shifted to 61-39 early Tuesday morning, but the latest odds reflect some regression for Trump:

  • Joe Biden -200 (64.7% chance)
  • Donald Trump +175 (35.3% chance)

Even with his odds regressing a bit, it’s important to point out that the betting market is much more bullish on Trump’s chances of winning a second term than pretty much every predictive model that’s based on polling data. For example, the 538 forecast closed with Biden having an 89% chance to win, compared a 10% chance for Trump (they had an Electoral College tie as a 1% possibility).

9 a.m. ET

Back and forth we go. After an early morning odds shift toward President Donald Trump, the market has corrected a bit, boosting Joe Biden’s chances slightly.

The current odds:

  • Joe Biden -188 (63.2% chance)
  • Donald Trump +163 (36.7% chance)

While this is nearly a 2% bump for Biden compared to what we saw at 8 a.m. ET, it’s still down from his numbers at midnight this morning (-227 odds, 66.6% chance).

Trump’s odds to win are up nearly 3.5% since midnight, moving from a 33.3% chance to win to a 36.7% chance.

8 a.m. ET

The polls have opened an many states, but the odds to win the presidency have remained stable since our 2 a.m. check-in:

  • Joe Biden -175 (61.4% chance)
  • Donald Trump +150 (38.6% chance)

It’s worth noting that these odds did see a pretty sizable shift in between midnight ET and 2 a.m. Biden had been -227 (66.6%), compared to +188 (33.3%) for Trump as the clock shifted to Election Day on the East coast of the U.S.

Trump’s current 38.6% chance to win are his best odds in more than a month.

2 a.m. ET

Election Day is finally here.

We’ve been tracking the odds since March — when former Vice President Joe Biden first emerged as the presumptive Democratic nominee to challenge President Donald Trump.

Now, we’ll be tracking how the odds shift between now and when the results are final.

For those of you who are just now tuning into the election betting market, here’s a quick overview of how the odds have evolved over the past nine months:

  • March 4 (post-Super Tuesday): Trump 53.9%; Biden 40%
  • March 18 (after first ‘shelter in place’ order): Trump 44.5%; Biden 44.5%
  • April 13 (five days after Bernie Sanders drops out): Trump 50.5%; Biden 42%
  • June 2 (10 days after George Floyd’s death): Trump 43%; Biden 47.3%
  • June 30 (end of fiscal Q2): Trump 33%; Biden 59.2%
  • July 15 (Kanye West ends presidential bid): Trump 34.7%; Biden 58.2%
  • Aug. 17 (Kamala Harris joins Biden’s ticket): Trump 39.3%; Biden 54.1%
  • Aug. 28 (post-Republican National Convention): Trump 45.4%; Biden 49.6%
  • Sept. 29 (post-first debate): Trump 39.4%; Biden 61.73%
  • Oct. 22 (post-second debate): Trump 33.5%; Biden 65.2%

We’ve tracked a lot more movement than those 10 key points (you can parse through the full snapshot here).

Check back throughout Tuesday — and until the race is called — for more updates on how the betting market is projecting the results.

11:30 p.m. ET, Monday

Biden has exactly a two-thirds chance of winning the White House, according to the latest odds (-227), with Trump coming in at +188 odds (33.3% chance).

These are unchanged from earlier on Monday and virtually unchanged from what we’ve seen in the market since last Thursday. Biden’s 66.6% chance is tied for the highest odds he has seen the past week, while Trump peaked at 34.4% on Oct. 31.

2020 Election Day Odds Tracker

We’ll update this tracker with the odds throughout the day on Nov. 3 until results are final.


Swing State Election Odds & Predictions

Heading into Election Day, there are eight states in which one of the two candidates is favored by only -333 (76.9% implied probability) or less: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas. In other words, those are the eight closest state races according to the betting market.

We’ll be tracking the odds in those individual states, as well, with our Swing State Tracker.

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