Ever since Donald Trump pulled a massive upset in the 2016 presidential election, Democrats have had November 2020 circled on their calendars.
The big question now: Who will the Dems nominate for the highest office in the land?
Will former Vice President Joe Biden run and win the primary? Will it be the progressive Bernie Sanders this time around? Or will Democrats nominate another woman in California Senator Kamala Harris or Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren?
I pulled data from four different betting markets: BetOnline, 5Dimes, PredictIt and Smarkets, and aggregated the average implied probability for each candidate. At the bottom of the post I’ll put in a table with the probabilities at each individual book, but first here are the overall odds for the 2020 Democratic nominee for president. Harris leads the group:
Biden is second behind Harris with 15.4% average implied odds of winning, followed by Sanders (15.2%) and Warren (11.6%). The only other name above 10% is Gavin Newsom, the current Lieutenant Governor of California, although he has odds only at 5Dimes, so take that with a grain of salt.
New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker are other popular names, and hedge fund manager/philanthropist Tom Steyer has the highest odds (7.5%) among all non-politicians.
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Clinton is pretty far down the list at 3.4% average odds; in fact, the more recent First Lady, Michelle Obama, is higher at 4.8%. Even higher is Oprah Winfrey at 5.6%. One intriguing name, although he’s continued to claim he isn’t interested in running, is Massachusetts representative Joe Kennedy.
He’s young at 37 years old, has a popular name (he’s the grandson of Robert F. Kennedy and grandnephew of President John F. Kennedy), and gave the Democratic response to the 2018 State of the Union. That elevated his status within the party, and it’s possible the higher-ups made him the choice to deliver the response specifically to set up a potential run for higher office.
As promised, here’s the table of all available candidates in the four betting markets and their specific odds at each site. Note: The table is best viewed on desktop as opposed to mobile. We’ll make sure to update odds over time as the betting markets shift.