Updated Wisconsin Election Polls & Betting Odds: Race Tightens, Goes Off the Board

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Alex Wong/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden.

Wisconsin Election Odds

Candidate
Odds
Implied Probability
Joe Biden
OFF
OFF
Donald Trump
OFF
OFF

Odds as of Tuesday, Nov. 3 and via European sportsbook Betfair. If you’re new to betting, Donald Trump’s +350 odds mean a $100 bet would net $350 if he wins Wisconsin. Convert odds using our Betting Odds Calculator. Also note that the implied probabilities above do not include the tax the book charges.


Wisconsin Polls

Candidate
FiveThirtyEight Polling Average
Joe Biden
52.1%
Donald Trump
43.7%

538 Wisconsin Projection

Candidate
FiveThirtyEight Projection
Joe Biden
94%
Donald Trump
6%

Polling averages and projections as of Nov. 3 and via FiveThirtyEight. Go to their 2020 Election Forecast to learn more.


Wisconsin Presidential Race Updates

Tuesday, Nov. 3: Joe Biden’s lead in Wisconsin has grown over the last few weeks, both in the polls and betting market. Betfair gives Biden nearly an 80% chance to win in Wisconsin, a 6.3% increase from two weeks ago.

Friday, Oct. 16: With less than three weeks until Election Day, the betting market gives Joe Biden a 73.7% implied probability of winning Wisconsin compared to Donald Trump’s 26.3% implied probability.

FiveThirtyEight’s forecast, which simulates the election 40,000 times, has Biden winning 88 out of every 100 times compared to Trump’s 12. The site’s average of polls reflect Biden’s lead, with him at 50.8% compared to the President’s 43.1%.


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Wisconsin has 10 of the 538 total electoral votes in the country.

Trump’s 2016 win in Wisconsin was a tightly contested one, as he beat Hillary Clinton by 0.7%. It was a surprise win for Trump in a state that voted for Barack Obama in the 2008 and 2012 elections, the latter of which Obama won by 6.9%. Trump ended up winning 304 of the electoral college votes in 2016 compared to Clinton’s 227.

Prior to Trump’s 2012 win in Wisconsin, the last time a Republican candidate won the state in a presidential election was Ronald Reagan in 1984.

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