Bundesliga Odds, Picks and Predictions: Borussia Monchengladbach vs. RB Leipzig (Saturday, Oct. 31)

Borussia Monchengladbach vs. RB Leipzig Odds

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This weekend, the best game in world soccer is going to be in Gladbach.

Two teams that are trending in the right directions will face off at Borussia Park, as Borussia Monchengladbach hosts Bundesliga leaders RB Leipzig. Both sides are creating goals at a strong rate, while Leipzig has one of Europe's best defenses, even after a shocking result in the middle of the week against Manchester United.

There's value to be had with both sides, so let's try to find what the best bet is.

Borussia Monchengladbach

While their domestic form has improved since suffering a 3-0 opening day defeat to Borussia Dortmund, Monchengladbach have also earned two valuable points in the Champions League that could have been six. Rose’s side conceded last-minute equalizers against Inter Milan and Real Madrid, the latter of whom scored twice after the 85th minute to erase a two-goal deficit.

The best news coming out of the Real Madrid match will be the apparent rejuvenation of Monchengladbach’s dynamic French duo, Alassane Plea and Marcus Thuram. Plea assisted both of Thuram’s goals in the game. The two combined for 38 goals and assists last season in the Bundesliga and will be key to another top-four finish in this campaign.

Jonas Hoffman has been the man, domestically, for Gladbach this season, scoring twice with four assists through five league games. With Hoffman providing chances on the right wing, the Monchengladbach attack will be even more dangerous.

Defensively, there’s room for improvement. Including the two Champions League games, Monchengladbach have allowed 1.90 xG or more in three of their last four matches. The one they didn’t was a 1-1 draw with Wolfsburg that saw them concede 1.34 xGA.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

The defensive issues will be an issue against a Leipzig side that is currently creating chances at will in the Bundesliga.

RB Leipzig

Leipzig started the season by winning five of their first six matches in all competitions, with a draw against Bayer Leverkusen providing the only blemish. The stellar performances Leipzig put together made Wednesday’s 5-0 defeat to Manchester United all the more shocking. Manager Julian Nagelsmann’s side conceded 2.48 xG to the Red Devils while creating a mere 0.47 of their own.

It was a setback, no doubt, but there’s no denying just how well they’ve played to start the Bundesliga season. They are top of the table and are near the top in all xG-related categories. Their 12.77 xG through five matches trails only Bayern Munich’s robust 16.89, while Leipzig’s 3.55 xGA is second by just 0.03 to Borussia Dortmund.

The balance in the team has Leipzig on top of the expected points table at 12.44, which is a fair depiction of their actual 13 points.

There is quality and stability all over the pitch for Leipzig. Dayot Upamecano is quietly one of the best defenders in the game at the moment, while Kevin Kampl and Christopher Nkunku power a strong midfield.

The biggest concern entering the season was how Leipzig would replace star striker Timo Werner, who moved to Chelsea. Three players, including striker Yussuf Poulsen, have two goals in the league, but eight in total have scored in the Bundesliga for Leipzig this season.

The balanced attack has been great for Leipzig thus far, as they have created 2.40 or more xG in four of their first five Bundesliga games. The depth of the squad is very, very impressive, so rotation against Monchengladbach will be likely all over the pitch, although it may not have a great effect on how many chances are created by the league leaders.

Borussia Monchengladbach-RB Leipzig pick

The defensive performances of Leipzig give them the edge in this matchup. Monchengladbach have been strong going forward, but Leipzig’s backline is among the best in Europe and will be ready for its most difficult test of their Bundesliga season.

Given the rate at which both sides have been creating chances and scoring of late, I expect both teams to score. Monchengladbach has scored in every game this season since their opening loss to Dortmund, while Leipzig's first goal-less game was on Wednesday at United.

With that, I give the edge to Leipzig to get the three points. Nagelsmann’s side is +270 to win with both teams scoring, which is good value given how the numbers indicate the match should play out.

The PICK: Leipzig to win and both teams to score +270

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