Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Borussia Monchengladbach Odds, Picks for Champions League (Tuesday, Nov. 3)

Shakhtar vs. Gladbach Odds

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Shakhtar Donetsk and Borussia Monchengladbach meet up in Ukraine in Matchday 3 of the Champions League. Shakhtar have been one of the surprises of the competition, leading Group B with four points thanks to an opening win over Real Madrid and subsequent draw vs. Inter Milan.

Monchengladbach have also had a relatively good start, taking a point from each of their two matches against top dogs Inter and Madrid, although they conceded late equalizers in both games.

Both clubs will want all three points here in what will feel like a big game.

Shakhtar Donetsk

What a start for the Ukrainian club. This is so exciting for a neutral fan. Shakhtar hit Real Madrid hard out of the gates for a 3-0 halftime lead in the Group B opener. Los Blancos sure made it interesting, but Shakhtar held on for a 3-2 win.

Next came Inter Milan, who I loved to beat Shakhtar last week. The match against the Italians couldn't have been more different from their outing in Madrid. Shakhtar came out aggressive against Real, whereas they were very pragmatic against Inter. The Italians dominated the possession, shots and big chances. And yet, the game ended 0-0. Given the discrepancy in performances, it will be very interesting to see what type of Shakhtar we see against Gladbach.

From an xG perspective, Shakhtar have been fortunate to earn their four points, to say the least. Manager Luis Castro's side beat Real Madrid with an xG advantage of 1.41-1.05. That result was well-deserved, but Inter Milan were extremely unlucky in the 0-0 draw. The Italians won the xG battle, 1.96-0.08. Inter had nine shots inside the 18-yard box, two off the crossbar and four big chances missed. Shakhtar generated four total shots, no big chances and one shot inside the box. It was clear that they were eager to grab a point.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

I hope we see the progressive version of Shakhtar and not the tactical one, because I think Gladbach will finish their chances.

Borussia Monchengladbach

Borussia Monchengladbach are just a joy to watch. Gladbach's two draws to start the Champions League season were not the worst results against the two giants of the group in Inter Milan and Real Madrid.

The match against Inter was a lot of fun to watch, ending in a 2-2 draw. Inter, once again, underperformed in comparison to their xG total. (Is there an echo in here?) The Italians bested the Germans in the xG battle, 3.51-1.45.

There is a similar trend in some of Gladbach's other games this season: They are scoring more than their underlying data suggests. Against Real Madrid, another 2-2 draw, the Spanish side won the xG battle, 2.58-1.41. Both matches saw Gladbach with the lead late in the match, only to give up equalizers in the 90th minute or later. That might be something to keep an eye on.

In the German Bundesliga, Gladbach are one of the up-and-comers behind Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund. Gladbach and RB Leipzig are neck and neck behind the two big sides, for me. Last weekend, those two sides faced off and Gladbach pulled out a close and cagey 1-0 victory. The xG totals were very close at 0.62-0.70 in favor of Leipzig.

I think we might be seeing a team in Gladbach that takes their chances, and the underlying data may underrate them. I think they have a pretty favorable matchup vs Shakhtar on Tuesday. Real Madrid are not in good form right now, and Inter are having significant issues in front of goal. Gladbach are in good form and will finish more than their fair share of chances against their Ukrainian opposition.

Shakhtar Donetsk-Borussia Monchengladbach Pick

For me, the play here is Gladbach. I typically like to look at xG to bring me to my bets. This pick is a combination of that and the eye test. Shakhtar are fortunate to be atop the group, and I think should come back to earth against Gladbach.

Gladbach's data suggests their goalscoring could come down, but the eye test tells me they have the quality in front of goal to sustain a run. Gladbach at plus-money is a gift in this spot.

The PICK: Borussia Monchengladbach moneyline +114

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