European Soccer Forecast: Projected Odds, Totals For This Week’s Champions League Matches (Nov. 3-4)

Credit:

OSCAR DEL POZO/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Sergio Ramos (left) and Eden Hazard (center left).

Last week’s Champions League action saw some crazy comebacks and tons of goals.

Here’s some highlights of what we saw:

    • Lionel Messi and Barcelona beat a Cristiano Ronaldo-less Juventus, 2-0, in Turin.
    • Real Madrid scored twice in the final eight minutes to secure a 2-2 draw at Borussia Monchengladbach.
    • Duvan Zapata scored two second-half goals in a six-minute span to secure a thrilling 2-2 draw for Atalanta against Ajax.
    • American Christian Puilsic scored his first Champions League goal for Chelsea in a 4-0 rout of Krasnodar.
    • Marcus Rashford bagged a hat trick in just 16 second-half minutes as Manchester United routed RB Leipzig 5-0 at home.

For the third week of matches, we only have a few “big” matches, but there are still some really interesting fixtures upcoming this week.

If you’d like to read more about how I determine my projected lines and totals using an expected goals model, you can read about it here.

For the Champions League, my projections factor in UEFA Coefficients for every country represented in the competition. The projections also factor in the talent of each squad based on their total transfer value on Transfer Market. That way, the projections can account for the strength of the domestic league each club plays in and the talent level of each club.

You can use these projections to identify early betting value on the opening lines, and follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make throughout the week. 

Note: These projections do not take injuries into account. The injury news highlighted below is for players that regularly would start in each team’s starting XI:

Tuesday’s Matches

Notes for Tuesday’s matches:

    • Atalanta vs. Liverpool: If you like goals, this is the match for you. Atalanta was the highest scoring team in Europe last season at 2.58 goals per match, while Liverpool has averaged 2.04 xG per match since the start of the 2019-20 campaign. Since the restart last season, Atalanta has won seven of their last nine matches at home in Serie A.
    • Salzburg vs. Bayern Munich: The reigning Austrian Bundesliga champions gave everything they had last week in Spain against Atletico Madrid but fell 3-2 due to a late Joao Felix goal. Bayern Munich have won an astounding 13 straight matches in the Champions League matches. Salzburg is a perfect 6-0-0 in domestic play this season, having outscored their opponents, 24-4.
    • Real Madrid vs. Inter Milan: Both teams need all three points from this match. Los Blancos have only one point through their first two matches and are in last place in Group B, while Inter have drawn their first two matches in Group B and needed a stoppage-time goal from Ivan Perisic to secure a draw with Parma in Serie A over the weekend.

Tuesday’s Injury News:

    • Lokomotiv Moscow: Mikhail Lysov (CB) and Dmitri Barinov (CM) are out against Atletico Madrid.
    • Atletico Madrid: Diego Costa (ST), Saul Niguez (CM) Yannick Carrasco (RM), and Sime Vrsaljko (RB) are out against Lokomotiv.
    • Shakhtar Donetsk: Dentinho (CF), Fernando (LW), Viktor Kovalenko (CM), Maksym Malyshev (CDM), Ismaily (LB), and Yevhen Konoplyanka (LW) are all out against Borussia Monchengladbach.
    • Borussia Monchengladbach: Denis Zakaria (CDM) is out against Shakhtar.
    • Liverpool: Virgil van Dijk (CB) and Fabinho (CM) are out against Atalanta. Thiago (CM), Naby Keita (CM) and Joel Matip (CB) are questionable.
    • Atalanta: Robin Gosens (LB) is questionable against Liverpool. Marten de Roon (CM), Mattia Caldara (CB) and Marco Tumminello (ST) are out.
    • Manchester City: Sergio Aguero (ST), Gabriel Jesus (ST), Fernandinho (CM) and Benjamin Mendy (LB) are out against Olympiacos.
    • Bayern Munich: Alponso Davies (LB) is out against Salzburg.
    • Real Madrid: Lucas Vazquez (RM) and Dani Carvajal (RB) are both out against Inter Milan.
    • Inter Milan: Matias Vecino (CAM) is out against Real Madrid. Romelu Lukaku (ST), Alexis Sanchez (ST) and Stefano Sensi (CM) are doubtful.

Wednesday’s Matches

Notes for Wednesday’s Matches: 

    • Club Brugge vs. Borussia Dortmund: The Belgian champions hold a one-point lead over Dortmund for second place in Group F. Dortmund has won five of their last six matches in all competitions, while Club Brugge is winless in their last four matches.
    • RB Leipzig vs. PSG: This is a rematch of last season’s Champions League semifinal that saw PSG win, 3-0, in Lisbon. Leipzig have fallen on hard times over the past week, losing 5-0 to Manchester United in their last Champions League fixture and falling 1-0 to Monchengladbach in the Bundesliga over the weekend. However, both of those matches were away from home. PSG has been on cruise control in Ligue 1, winning their last seven matches by a combined score of 23-1.

Wednesday’s Injury News:

    • Zenit: Malcom (CAM) is doubtful to face Lazio.
    • Lazio: Ciro Immobile (ST), Luis Alberto (CM), and Manuel Lazzari (RM) are all questionable due to positive COVID-19 tests last week.
    • Chelsea: Christian Pulisic (CAM) is out against Rennes due to a hamstring injury.
    • Rennes: Eduardo Camavinga (CM) is out against Chelsea.
    • PSG: Neymar (CF), Kylian Mbappe (ST), Julian Draxler (CAM), Mauro Icardi (ST) and Juan Bernat (LB) are all out versus RB Leipzig.
    • RB Leipzig: Nordi Mukiele (RB), Tyler Adams (CM), and Lukas Klostermann (CB) are all out against PSG.
    • Barcelona: Samuel Umtiti (CB), Philippe Coutinho (CAM) and Marc-Andre ter Stegen (GK) are out vs. Dynamo Kiev.
    • Juventus: Matthijs de Ligt (CB), Emre Can (CM), Giorgio Chiellini (CB), and Alex Sandro (LB) are all questionable to face Ferencvaros.
    • Borussia Dortmund: Mats Hummels (CB) is questionable to face Club Brugge.
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