Saturday MLS Betting Odds & Picks: LAFC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy, Inter Miami vs. Orlando City (August 22)

Credit:

Photo credit: Jeremy Reper/ISI Photos/Getty Images. Pictured: Diego Rossi

  • Saturday's MLS slate is loaded but Jeremy Pond thinks the best betting value can be found in LAFC vs. LA Galaxy and Inter Miami vs. Orlando City.
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down each match's betting angles, including a confident wager on LAFC's and Diego Rossi's scoring potential.
  • Check out his full betting preview below for odds, picks, and comprehensive analysis.

Several marquee matches highlight Saturday’s Major League Soccer card, led by Los Angeles Football Club facing the Los Angeles Galaxy in the latest chapter of the heated “El Tráfico” rivalry.


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LAFC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy Odds

LAFC odds -250 [BET NOW]
LA Galaxy odds +525 [BET NOW]
Draw +430 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 3.5 (-157/+123) [BET NOW]
Time 6 p.m. ET
TV FOX

Manager Bob Bradley is hoping LAFC can continue its decent run of form after a solid yet somewhat frustrating showing at the MLS is Back tournament. The club finished second in its group, which was won by eventual champion Portland, and then hammered Seattle in the Round of 16 of the competition.

However, Bradley’s troops would not get out of the quarterfinal round, playing to a 1-1 draw with tournament runner-up Orlando City before being eliminated on penalty kicks.

On the other side, the Galaxy could not have been more disappointing in Florida. Los Angeles went 0-2-1 in the group stage and was sent packing after failing to reach the knockout round.

Without question, the most embarrassing match for the Galaxy came against – you guessed it – LAFC in the group phase. LAFC obliterated its rival, cruising to a 6-2 victory.

After looking into the data for these combatants, LAFC has a huge advantage. The franchise sits at 4.4 expected goals and 2.9 expected goals against for a +1.5 mark, which is tied for third among Western Conference teams. LAFC’s xGDiff for 90 minutes of +0.75 is fourth-best in the conference as well.

On the other side, the Galaxy is near the bottom in all similar statistical categories (2.0 xGF/-2.1 xGA = -0.1 xGDiff and 0.07 xGDiff/90).

When trying to find some decent plays, it was difficult due to the numbers being so lopsided in LAFC’s favor. You really have to dig around to find wagers that provide value and, at the same time, aren’t too extreme.

That said, I fully expect LAFC to come out on top again in this latest showdown, and I don’t think it will be a close game either. For that reason, I am backing LAFC to score goals in both halves.

I am also going to play LAFC star Diego Rossi to score any time at close to even money. Rossi scored six goals at the MLS is Back tournament, and I think he continues his tear in this contest.

The Bets: LAFC To Score In Both Halves: Yes (-155); Diego Rossi (LAFC) To Score Anytime: Yes (-106)

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Inter Miami vs. Orlando City Odds

Inter Miami odds +148 [BET NOW]
Orlando City odds +175 [BET NOW]
Draw +235 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-132/-103) [BET NOW]
Time 8 p.m. ET
TV MLS Live on ESPN+

Florida rivals and Eastern Conference foes headline the rest of the card, with Orlando City looking to get the best of the expansion side.

The sides faced off in the group stage of the MLS is Back tournament in a match where Orlando City secured a 2-1 win. That victory was just the beginning of the club’s dream run at the midsummer showcase, which saw it make it all the way to the final before losing to Portland.

Statistically, Orlando City is at 1.3 expected goals and 1.1 expected goals against for a +0.2 expected goals differential. Their xGDiff for 90 minutes of +0.08 has them among just five teams in the Eastern Conference with a positive differential in that category.

Inter Miami is at or near the bottom in the same statistical categories (2.9 xGF/-3.2 xGA = -0.3 xGDiff and -0.17 xGDiff/90), which isn’t that bad considering this is a new team still trying to get its legs in the league.

Rivalry matches are always hard to handicap. Add in the fact that Inter Miami hasn’t played a competitive match in quite some time, combined with the fact that Orlando City could still be dealing with a hangover from the championship loss, and you really have a tough game to handicap.

So, instead of picking a side, I am backing both teams to score. Inter Miami and Orlando City have shown they can capitalize on their counterattacks, and neither club likes to sit back. I fully expect this to be an entertaining affair and will play this wager with confidence.

The Bets: Both Teams To Score: Yes (-165)

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