La Liga Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: How To Bet Real Sociedad vs. Sevilla (Sunday, April 18)

La Liga Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: How To Bet Real Sociedad vs. Sevilla (Sunday, April 18) article feature image
Credit:

Octavio Passos/Getty Images. Pictured: Fernando.

  • La Liga's best matchup of the weekend takes place in Basque Country, as Real Sociedad host Sevilla.
  • Sociedad are analytical darlings, creating chances at a high rate that ranks among the league's best.
  • Kieran Darcy explains why he's backing the team higher in the table on Sunday morning, though.

Real Sociedad vs. Sevilla Odds

Real Sociedad Odds +185
Sevilla Odds +155
Draw +220
Over/Under 2.5 (+118/ -148)
Day | Time Sunday |  8 a.m. ET
TV beIN SPORTS
Odds as of Saturday afternoon via DraftKings

This is arguably the best game of the weekend in La Liga, with fifth-place Real Sociedad hosting fourth-place Sevilla.

There’s little chance of the home team catching up in the table, however. Sevilla have 61 points — 14 more than Real Sociedad, with just eight games remaining in the season.

Real Sociedad do have some things going for them. In fact, they just won a trophy two weeks ago, in last season’s long-delayed Copa del Rey final.

Here’s a closer look at the two clubs, followed by a pick for this match.

Real Sociedad

That Copa del Rey win for Real Sociedad was even sweeter because it came against their arch-rivals, Athletic Bilbao.

Since then, they’ve played two league games, and both finished honors even. Last Sunday, Real Sociedad drew 2-2 at 13th-place Valencia. Four days earlier they drew 1-1 in another match against Athletic Bilbao.

Stretching back even further, Real Sociedad have won only won one of their past six league games, although two of the six were against Real Madrid and Barcelona. They drew 1-1 with the former, but were hammered 6-1 by the latter.

On the bright side, looking at the season as a whole, Real Sociedad are actually the second-strongest team in La Liga in terms of xG (expected goal) differential, according to FBRef, at +21.4. Only Barcelona (+32.0) are ahead of them.

Sevilla

Sevilla are only sixth in La Liga in xG differential, at +10.9. But, as mentioned above, they are way ahead of Real Sociedad in the actual table. In fact, Sevilla are only six points behind league leaders Atletico Madrid, five behind Real Madrid and four behind Barcelona.

Their recent form in the league is also much better than Real Sociedad’s. Sevilla have taken four wins and a draw from their past five matches.

Their most recent game was a 4-3 victory at 10th-place Celta Vigo on Monday, with Papu Gomez scoring the winner in the 76th minute.

Prior to that was a 1-0 win over Atletico Madrid, and a well deserved one at that. Sevilla outshot Atletico 17-9, and topped them 1.7 to 0.9 in terms of xG.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

Sevilla won the first meeting between these two clubs, 3-2 back on Jan. 9. Youssef En-Nesyri took the match ball home after scoring a hat trick. He has 15 goals this season — only four players in La Liga have more.

The shots were relatively even — 12-10 in favor of Sevilla — but the xG was much more lopsided, 2.3 to 1.1 in favor of the home team.

Sevilla have conceded just 24 goals in 30 league matches this season — only Atletico Madrid have conceded fewer (20). One of Celta Vigo’s three goals on Monday was a penalty, and prior to that Sevilla had conceded just one goal in their previous four matches combined.

I’m going to roll with the hotter team here, even away from home.

Pick: Sevilla ML (+155)

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