Australian Open Day 4 WTA Betting Odds & Picks: 3 Underdogs Worth a Shot on Wednesday
It’s a day for the dogs.
Below I will detail my three favorite WTA bets for Wednesday at the 2020 Australian Open, hitting on the following matchups:
- Jelena Ostapensko vs. Belinda Bencic (7 p.m. ET)
- Karolina Pliskova vs. Laura Siegemund (8:30 p.m. ET)
- Camila Giorgi vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova (11 p.m. ET)
Tournament Record: 7-3 +4.4 units
All odds as of Wednesday morning.
Jelena Ostapenko +150 vs Belinda Bencic
In her first match of 2020, Ostapenko started off just as she ended 2019 — with an easy and comfortable win. She played error-free tennis, which has been a rarity in recent years. The 2017 French Open champ hit only three double faults and five unforced errors to 22 winners.
After having to withdrawal from Auckland as a result of her father’s death, it was fair to wonder how Ostapenko would look in Melbourne, but she answered all of those questions in her Round 1 victory. And when she can control her power, she has enough talent to beat anyone in the world. That first-round victory should also do wonders for her confidence, which has wavered over the past two seasons.
Meanwhile, Bencic had a bit of a tricky Round 1 win over Anna Karolina Schmiedlova. She had 25:25 winners to unforced errors and never seemed that comfortable in the match. And now Ostapenko will bring a completely different style to the table than Schmiedlova.
These two have met once before, two years ago at Indian Wells in a match Ostapenko won in three sets by a scoreline of 6-4, 3-6, 6-1.
Both players have had wild departures in form since that match. Ostapenko has largely struggled the last two years, while Bencic has worked herself to the top 10 in the world.
The big change for Ostapenko recently has been a coaching switch to Marion Bartoli in the fall of last year. Since that change, she lost in the final at Linz to Coco Gauff and defeated Julia Goerges in the Luxembourg final. And now a routine victory in the first round here only backs up those two promising results.
Bencic has had a bit of a disappointing start to 2020. The Swiss went just 2-2 prior to Melbourne with one very concerning loss to Danielle Collins in comprehensive fashion (6-3, 6-1). Ostapenko has the power and fearlessness to pound winners just like Collins did.
Now, there’s always a chance Ostapenko simply doesn’t have her timing and she hits 40 unforced errors in an easy loss. However, I saw enough in the first round to back her in a match I make much closer to a pick’em.
The +150 price tag would be more fitting if this match were played last year. But with Ostapenko’s coaching change and ability to hit Bencic right off the court, I’d play this down to +110.
Pick: Jelena Ostakpenko +150
Laura Siegemund +525 vs. Karolina Pliskova
Pliskova has started off 2020 with an undefeated record but has not looked flawless along the way. The Czech has dropped three sets in five matches — albeit against top-tier competition.
Siegemund might not be a top 10 player in the world, but she’s in great form after an impressive run in Auckland where she easily defeated Caty McNally before coming back from a set down to take down Coco Gauff 5-7, 6-2, 6-3. She eventually lost in the QF to Serena Williams (6-4, 6-3) in a solid performance as a +700 underdog.
Siegemund then carried over that form in first-round victory over a faulty Coco Vandeweghe (6-1, 6-4). She’ll have to at the bare minimum replicate that effort but most likely need to raise her play another level in order to take down Pliskova.
Although Pliskova is ultra-talented, she’s known for early exits at Grand Slams. An in-form and attacking Siegemund could once again serve the Czech another premature exit.
The German will move Pliskova all over the court, making her hit from both wings and brining her to the net. She’ll also have no problem getting emotionally involved in the match.
Siegemund also shouldn’t fear the moment or caliber of opponent. She holds an impressive 9-10 lifetime record against top 10 competition, although seven of her wins came in her home country’s tournament in Stuttgart on indoor clay. A Grand Slam in Melbourne is obviously a different animal, but an in-form and confident Siegemund can compete with the best on Tour.
The +525 price tag on Siegemund is outrageous, especially considering Mladenovic closed at +360 versus Pliskova in the first round. I’m splitting my play on the game spread and moneyline, which I’d play down to about +325.
Pick: Laura Siegemund +525/+5.5 Games
Camila Giorgi +125 vs Svetlana Kuznetsova
Even at 34 years old, Kuznetsova still comes up big in big matches. The veteran pulled out a victory over Marketa Vondrousova in R1 through a gritty performance that has become a staple of her latter years. This actually marks the first time since 2017 she’s competed in Melbourne and she certainly delivered in the first-round.
Meanwhile. Giorgi struggled with injuries throughout a disappointing 2019 campaign but seems to have righted the ship a bit to start 2020 with a 5-2 record (albeit against lower level competition in mainly qualifying matchups). Her most promising result came in a first set 6-3 loss to Serena Williams. She played right with Serena before getting broken and losing the set.
Giorgi’s first serve is vital to her game. Everything works off the serve for the Italian. If she can get ahead in a point, she can easily end it with her big-hitting, aggressive nature. That will be important against Kuznetsova, who will play a defensive and counter-attacking style.
For what it’s worth, Kuznetsova holds a 2-0 head-to-head advantage. However, both matches came in 2014, so I don’t take much from either.
At this point in their careers, I believe Giorgi is the more talented player when fit. And since I make Giorgi a slight favorite here, anything at plus money or better is playable. I’ve seen enough of her play to feel confident about her getting enough first serves in, which is the ultimate key.
Pick: Camila Giorgi +125