Sabalenka vs Pegula Odds
| Sabalenka Odds | -310 |
| Pegula Odds | +245 |
| Over/Under | 21.5 (-110 / -122) |
| Time | How to Watch | Saturday, 4 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via DraftKings. For tips on how to watch US Open tennis, click here. | |
Aryna Sabalenkadefeated Emma Navarro in a tricky 6-3, 7-6(2) victory in the semifinals. This is Sabalenka's second-straight US Open final, falling to Coco Gauff last season's finale.
Sabalenka will now face off with Jessica Pegula, who beat Karolina Muchova 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 in her semifinal showdown
Read on for my full Sabalenka vs Pegula pick ahead of this US Open final.
Sabalenka Continues Rolling
Sabalenka won 43% of her return points, 74% of her second serves and was only broken twice in her victory over Navarro. The Belarusian went for her shots, hitting 34 winners against 34 unforced errors.
And while Sabalenka will want to clean up winning just 45% of her second serves, she did win 75% of her second-serve returns.
Sabalenka not only made the final of the US Open last season, but she also won the Australian Open (hard) earlier this year over Qinwen Zheng. The 26-year old is a impressive 29-6 on hard courts overall in 2024. She's currently on an 11-match winning streak during the summer hard-court swing, having only dropped one set during this time, and includes a title in Cincinnati, beating Pegula in straight sets in the final.
In addition, Sabalenka has a 291-119 record as a professional.
Sabalenka's power makes her a dangerous player to face. This year, Sabalenka is (at least) in the top-eight for aces along with the percentage of service points and service games won. During Sabalenka's current 11-match winning streak, she has won at least two-thirds of her first serves in every match.
And, behind her serve, the Belarusian hits with excellent controlled aggression. She takes the racquet out of her opponents' hands with her raw firepower and has done an excellent job over the past couple of seasons in harnessing her power.
Sabalenka gets good pop on her backhand, but her forehand is where she does the most damage. The 26-year old positions herself aggressively on the court, taking time away from her opposition.
While opponents in the past could rely on Sabalenka to hit herself out of matches, that is no longer (frequently) the case.
Pegula Reaches Milestone Final
Pegula won 56% of her service points and was broken four times. She will need to improve on her 58% first-serves won in order to challenge Sabalenka in this upcoming final. The American did win 44% of her return points, breaking Muchova's serve on five occasions.
Pegula was a bit sloppy, hitting 17 winners versus 22 unforced errors and she needs to be more mindful of when to come forward, as she won just 11-of-23 net points.
With that said, this is a milestone match for the 30-year old veteran, who is into her first Slam singles final.
Pegula is now 290-148 on hard courts for her career and 25-5 this season. During the summer hard-court swing alone, the American is 15-1 (only loss to Sabalenka), with a title in Toronto over Amanda Anisimova.
Pegula doesn't do anything that stands out, but she's an all-around, solid player. The American hits her spots on serve, has excellent footwork and a high rally tolerance. She places the ball well, particularly in terms of the depth of her groundstrokes.
The 30-year-old has a high tennis IQ and builds points well. She anticipates effectively and does a decent job of blunting her opponents' power. And it is true that she can hit with pace into openings.
However, she doesn't have the pace nor the level of defense necessary to extract in-form power hitters from the baseline, such as Madison Keys at the US Open in 2023. And, while she is usually strong at net, she didn't move forward well against Muchova and doesn't have much else in terms of variety.
Sabalenka vs Pegula Pick
Sabalenka leads the head to head 5-2, with all five victories for the Belarusian in straight sets. When Sabalenka is feeling good about her game, there's nothing Pegula can do to stop her.
Pegula doesn't have anything to take Sabalenka out of her comfort zone.
Sabalenka, with her firepower, should be in charge of the baseline, directing play. She should be able to keep the ball on her forehand and drag Pegula around the court.
Pegula's anticipation and defensive skills are above average, but as we saw in Cincinnati, she doesn't have the variety nor the power to make Sabalenka uncomfortable in the Belarusian's current form.
And now she has the pressure of being an American in her first Slam final in New York.
