Sinner vs Fritz Odds for US Open Final
| Jannik Sinner Odds | -430 |
| Taylor Fritz Odds | +340 |
| Over/Under | 38.5 (-116 / -116) |
| Time | How to Watch | Sunday, 2 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via FanDuel. For tips on how to watch US Open tennis, click here. | |
There will be a brand new US Open champion crowned on Sunday afternoon in New York as Taylor Fritz contests the first Grand Slam final of his career against World No. 1 Jannik Sinner.
Fritz has produced the level of his career to get to this stage of the US Open, coming through two top-10 opponents — No. 4 Alexander Zverev and No. 8 Casper Ruud — in recent rounds, and will now put his form to the test against a man who's lost just five times all year.
Sinner-Fritz odds have Sinner as a heavy -430 moneyline favorite and Fritz as a +340 underdog. The over/under is set at 38.5 total games (-116o / -116u).
Can the 26-year-old Fritz become the first American man to win the US Open since Andy Roddick in 2003? Let's get into my US Open Final best bet and break down my Sinner vs Fritz prediction.
Sinner Steady Heading Into Final
The draw here for Sinner hasn't been the hardest in the world, though that's generally what you get when you're the top seed at a Grand Slam. Yes, there was some real talent in his way over the last three matches, but we saw both Tommy Paul and Daniil Medvedev struggle to serve before Jack Draper's gas tank emptied after a set and a half in the semifinals.
Sinner hasn't had a scare yet, dropping just two sets en route to the final, other than a nasty-looking fall against Draper in which appeared to injure his left wrist. We're not anticipating the Italian to enter this one severely hampered, but with a hip issue that was still present a few weeks ago in Cincinnati, and a physically-draining match on Friday, there is certainly a chance we don't see the best version of Sinner.
The World No. 1 will be hunting down his second Grand Slam trophy of the season after taking home the Australian Open earlier this season and now stands at a menacing 56-5 in his matches. There hasn't been a discernible weakness in his game as he continues to mash his groundstrokes from the baseline, but if there is one bone to pick, it's that against the first real serving threat he's faced in the tournament, he struggled to string return points together until very late in the match.
Fritz Flashing Complete Game
After losing in the first round of the US Open to Brandon Holt two seasons ago, many wrote off Fritz as a viable threat to win this tournament. His win at Indian Wells seemed like a fitting one, given it was likely the biggest prize he'd ever claim on tour, but now he sits just three sets away from becoming a Grand Slam champion.
It certainly shouldn't have come as a shock, however. Fritz played stellar tennis through four rounds of the US Open last year before running into Novak Djokovic — a player he's never been able to figure out — and has now the fourth round or better at every slam this year. He's clearly established himself as one of the 10 best players in the world, and his already enticing weapons have only grown stronger over the last two weeks.
Fritz's serve has been dominant, winning him a point behind 81% of his first deliveries, and his forehand has stretched the court incredibly well and matched the pace brought by some big hitters. He's also managed to improve by leaps and bounds on return, notably conjuring up 14 break points against one of the biggest servers in the world when he took on Alexander Zverev.
Like Sinner, it's incredibly hard to find anything negative about Fritz at the moment.
Sinner vs Fritz Picks & Best Bets
These two have met twice in their careers, and it's been the American to claim three of the five sets played.
Fritz first took Sinner out of Indian Wells three years ago in straight sets before enduring a brutal serving day against the Italian last season, where he lost a three-set war and landed just 54% of his first serves.
With a stronger-looking serve, and the early struggles on return for Sinner in his recent matches, I think there's a really good chance that Fritz can win this match. At the very least, he should be able to fend off break chances and give himself a chance in three or four of these sets. While there is a talent gap between the two, I don't think it's quite this wide.
Sinner looked weary to start his semifinal against Draper, donating plenty of surprising errors, and he struggled to find a way to return until late in the second set. Against Paul, he fell behind two breaks in the first, and in the first round against Mackenzie McDonald he was so poor in the opening stanza that he lost it, 6-2.
I like Fritz to take one set at the very least in what should be a close encounter, and while the games are the best way to go, I do think there's value in calling our shot here with the American to catch fire early in front of an energized crowd to win the first.
