WNBA Betting Tip: Game 1 Favorites are Profitable
Minnesota Lynx center Sylvia Fowles. Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
- The 2018 WNBA season starts Friday.
- Due to less betting interest, there are often soft lines.
- Betting favorites in Game 1 is a profitable strategy
Did you know the 2018 WNBA season tips off Friday? It’s true, the Phoenix Mercury host the Dallas Wings (10 p.m. ET) in the season opener.
If you missed that, there is a good chance you also don’t know which team won the 2017 WNBA championship (Minnesota Lynx), or that Sylvia Fowles (pictured above) is the reigning MVP. It’s OK, I didn’t either.
I’m not a fan of the WNBA. But that won’t stop me from betting on it.
Without a deep (or surface level) knowledge of the teams and players, how can one profit from women’s basketball? By using Bet Labs, bettors get access to 13 years of proprietary sports betting information as well as five Pro Systems:
- Moneyline Moves: 120-143 (46%), +109.35 units
- Big Visiting Dogs: 95-52-3 (65%) ATS, +38.33 units
- Bad Team After a Win: 42-14 (75%) ATS, +25.92 units
- WNBA Reverse Line Movement: 131-91-2 (59% ATS), +35.23 units
- Under After Over Streak: 243-174-1 (58%), +58.32 units
Combined, these WNBA Pro Systems are 631-474-6 (57%) overall since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $26,715 wagering on all system matches. (Try Bet Labs for a month, just $49).
As of Thursday morning, lines have not been posted for Wings-Mercury or Chicago Sky-Indiana Fever (Saturday 1 p.m. ET). We won’t know if either game will be a match for one of the above systems until closer to tip off.
Not to leave you empty-handed, I unearthed a betting trend that can be applied regardless of the opening line or how the betting market reacts. The beauty of this system is its simplicity.
In the first game of the season, the favorite has been the sharp side. Betting the chalk in Game 1 has gone 48-29-1 (62%) ATS since 2005.
My theory is that at the beginning of the season when teams are rested, healthy and prepared the squads with the most talent (usually the favorites) have an advantage. At no other point in the regular season is betting the favorite as profitable:
It is a small sample size, but we have a theory that explains why it works so consistently — profitable in nine of the last 13 seasons. This is not a foolproof strategy, but certainly an interesting trend.