In their last game before the All-Star break, the Dallas Wings were routed by Connecticut Sun, 92-75, at home as 4.5-point favorites. It was the second time in as many games that Dallas lost by double digits. The poor finish to the first half of the season hasn’t stopped oddsmakers from listing the Wings as favorites over the Chicago Sky on Tuesday (8 p.m. ET).
Dallas opened as a 9.5-point favorite at home. Considering the team’s recent slide, the line is staggering. In early betting, a majority of spread tickets are on the Wings. Should bettors fade Dallas or buy low on the Wings?
Since 2005, WNBA teams coming off double-digit losses have gone 690-638-26 (52%) against the spread (ATS), according to Bet Labs. Teams that are favored, such as the Wings, have a 292-234-8 (56%) ATS record.
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There is definitely value buying low on Dallas after a pair of ugly losses. What makes this matchup even more intriguing is that the line has moved in the Wings’ direction.
Since 2005, teams that become bigger favorites following a loss of 10 or more points are 180-118-6 (60%) ATS in their next game. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $5,347 following this system.
In addition to having a winning system on the Wings, there have been two steam moves triggered on Dallas. A steam move is sudden line movement across the betting market, which is often an indication of sharp money. The Wings moved from -9.5 to -10 at Pinnacle (and even up to -10.5 at a handful of books across the market).
It is also worth mentioning that Dallas was a bit unlucky to get blown out in consecutive games. In their last game, Sun guard Shekinna Stricklen tied a WNBA record with eight three-pointers, helping Connecticut, a team that shoots 32% from behind the arc, connect on 50% of its attempts. And in the previous game — which happened to be against Tuesday’s opponent Chicago — the Sky scored a franchise record 114 points.
Barring another historic performance from the Chicago Sky, which is unlikely, the historical data and bet signals point to the Dallas Wings bouncing back.