Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich Betting Preview: Here’s How to Target the Total

Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich Odds

The biggest game in German football kicks off at 12:30 p.m. on Saturday as Borussia Dortmund hosts Bayern Munich in a matchup of the two biggest clubs in the Bundesliga. Bayern has dominated both the Bundesliga and this rivalry in recent history and is favored to win this match again, but neither club has been at its peak form in the league this season.

While Bayern is rolling through the Champions League with three victories and Dortmund is poised to go through in Europe, Bayern went four matches without a win and Dortmund has already lost three league matches this season.

After an offseason spending spree that saw the Blacks and Yellows spend the money they received from the departure of Erling Haaland, the performances have been largely underwhelming.

Bayern also lost its top striker in Robert Lewandowski and while the underlying metrics have remained excellent, Bayern isn't atop the Bundesliga and the season is more than 25% completed.

Dortmund

There's still major questions about this Dortmund attack, even if it did score on the road in Sevilla in the Champions League on Wednesday. Through eight matches, 19-year old central midfielder Jude Bellingham leads Dortmund with 21 shots attempted. That says two things: First, Bellingham is a superstar in the making. Second, the shot production from the forwards is seriously missing.

Dortmund has gotten just 14 shots and 2.1 xG from Anthony Modeste in 6.1 90s. That's not nearly enough production and shouldn't be that surprising given his age and lack of fit in Dortmund's attacking style. Next is Marco Reus with 13 shots, but is out with an injury.

The attack hasn't been able to come close to replacing Haaland's production. I've written about Dortmund's attacking regression ad nauseam this year after they finished at an unsustainable rate last year and lost Haaland. The club has produced 13.3 xG in eight games, the fourth-best mark in the league. They've finished below that rate with 11 goals scored.

Dortmund's defense struggled on the road at Sevilla, Köln and Leipzig, but has been stellar at home. The Blacks and Yellows have conceded 2.9 xGA in four home matches. The new center backs are better at playing through pressure, which will be a major key Saturday when Bayern presses high and tries to force high turnovers.

Bayern Munich

Given how much Bayern dominates possession, they typically create plenty of set piece opportunities from corners and free kicks. Yet, Bayern is just ninth in xG created from set plays in the Bundesliga this season. That's actually one spot ahead of Dortmund and I think Bayern's rank there can be attributed to a lack of Lewandowski in the middle.

The Bundesliga has clearly taken a step back in the past year or two and Bayern have upped the field tilt and game control under Julian Nagelsmann. But that doesn't mean they don't concede chances.

Bayern has conceded 7.1 xGA in its past six matches — three in the Bundesliga and three in the Champions League. The question is whether Dortmund can take advantage of Bayern's defensive flaws with its current personnel. Reus is an elite ball carrier in transition, but he's out.

Bayern's biggest flaw isn't one that Dortmund can easily exploit. That suggests this game will have long periods where Bayern struggles to establish dominance of the possession on the road, but Dortmund isn't able to capitalize on the extremely high line from Bayern, either.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

In past seasons, I haven't liked to bet the under in this fixture unless it gets to four total goals. I almost always show the market to be overvaluing these attacks with an inflated total against one another, but the matchup hasn't been conducive to an under because of Haaland's pace and Dortmund's poor play through the high press.

However, both teams are clearly regressing without their elite finishers leading the attacks. Their absences have left more shots for everyone else, which has resulted in less efficient attacking and finishing.

Bayern may have great midfield play and generate a ton of shots, but Dortmund isn't giving away as many as easy chances this season.

With neither team threatening as much on set pieces, I'll hold my nose and bet the under 3.5 at -110 or better.

The Pick: Under 3.5 (-110)