Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena Odds, Prediction
| Muhammad Odds | -184 |
| Della Maddalena Odds | +155 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 Rounds (-166/+130) |
| Location | Centre Bell | Montreal, Quebec |
| Bout Time | 12:30 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 315 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC 315 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena predictions, picks, and odds for UFC 315 on Saturday, May 10.
Belal Muhammad, the current champion, entered off a win against Leon Edwards at UFC 304 in July and is currently riding an 11-fight unbeaten streak that dates back to his loss against Geoff Neal in 2019.
Including a title bout on the regional scene, Belal has seen the championship rounds four times.
Conversely, Jack Della Maddalena has never competed in a five-round fight or been tested in the championship rounds. The Perth native hasn't lost since the first two fights of his MMA career — in 2016 — and is on a seven-fight winning streak since earning his contract on Contender Series — over Ange Loosa — in 2021.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC 315 Main Event on Saturday and utilize those factors to bet on these welterweights. They should make their cage walk at approximately 12:00 a.m. ET (9:00 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ PPV.
Here's my Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Muhammad | Della Maddalena | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-3 | 17-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:53 | 8:44 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 7/9/1988 | 9/10/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.39 | 6.74 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 53% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.48 | 4.27 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 66% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.28 | 0.21 |
| TD Acc | 39% | 16% |
| TD Def | 89% | 70% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.2 |
While Belal Muhammad is the more well-rounded fighter – and can mix in striking to set up his takedown attempts – this could play out as a relatively binary matchup, where Della Maddalena proves the better striker, with the more damaging hands, while Muhammad generates effective grappling and racks up control time across multiple rounds.
As a result, in a fight that is likely to go to a decision, judges may have to weigh Della Maddalena's damaging boxing against Muhammad's kicking game and ground strikes, which could lead to some wonky scorecards.
While Della Maddalena has weaknesses in his takedown defense (25 of 36 attempts denied, 69%; faced 4.5 attempts per five minutes at distance, 16% control rate), he has shown the ability to consistently scramble back to his feet and force opponents to shoot again.
Belal is a relatively proactive wrestler (2.8 attempts per five minutes, 39% accuracy) with excellent cardio. However, when he gets opponents on the mat—or up against the fence—he does well to maintain and prioritize position—winning minutes rather than hunting for submissions or landing group and pound.
As a result, Belal is oft-maligned for his boring fighting style but has a practical, minute-winning skillset.
Moreover, he has generally proven durable throughout his UFC career despite limited striking defense (57%) or offensive power on the feet to dissuade opponents from attacking.
Still, Della Maddalena is both the far more efficient (combined 116 striking efficiency vs. 100 for Muhammad; +1.9 to +0.9 differential per minute) and dangerous striker – mixing clean combinations to the head and body of opponents, and carrying surprising power for his size and physique which seems to catch his opposition off guard.
As I discussed in my Natalia Silva-Alexa Grasso preview, championship-calibre fighters typically clear that 110 threshold of combined striking accuracy and defense, with Jon Jones (122), Islam Makhachev (119), Valentina Shevchenko (116), Alexander Volkanovski (114), and Ilia Topuria (111) all clearing that bar; and Della Maddalena doing so without the benefit of ground strikes.
Moreover, Della Maddalena is eight years younger than Belal – and as I regularly discuss, when there is that large an age discrepancy between opponents, the younger athlete is typically undervalued – winning 69.1% of their fights at average odds of -128 (56% implied)
While Alexander Volkanovski recently added to the win side of the ledger, fighters over age 35, in UFC men's divisions below middleweight, are only 3-30 in title bouts.
Apart from the technical analysis, there are reasons to be concerned about betting on Della Maddalena's side, given the quality of his wins, including a pair of split decisions in the UFC (over Kevin Holland and Bassil Hafez). More recently, he lost two rounds to Gilbert Burns before a third-round finish.
Still, if Della Maddalena can effectively scramble against Belal – and keep this fight at striking range for 15 of the 25 minutes – he should have better footwork, sharper hands, and land the more damaging strikes.
Leon Edwards was extremely passive in his loss to Belal, and still managed to win two rounds on two of the three scorecards; Della Maddalena will be far more proactive in bringing the fight to the champion.
Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena Prediction
I projected Jack Della Maddalena is a +157 underdog, and would consider betting his moneyline at +160 or better.
The number has moved down from +205 to +150 over the past week, but is finally ticking back up; we'll try to time the peak price on fight day.
Moreover, I project an edge on the Fight to End Inside the Distance (projected +109, listed +133) and on Della Maddalena to win by KO/TKO (projected +229, listed +350) or inside the distance (projected +202, listed +275); I'd bet the latter down to +225.
I'll place a small bet on his violence props while we wait for his moneyline to tick upward.
Sean's Pick: Jack Della Maddalena (+160 or better; wait for peak price on fight day) | Della Maddalena wins Inside the Distance (+275 at DraftKings)
