UFC 315 Odds, Predictions: Expert Picks, Previews for All 12 Fights

Check out the latest UFC 315 odds and betting lines, along with my predictions for all 12 fights in Saturday's pay-per-view at the Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, Canada.

Below, I look at the latest UFC 315 odds and break down and predict each bout on today's PPV fight card.

Here's how to watch UFC 315 today: The preliminary card streams on ESPN+ at 6:30 p.m. ET (3:30 p.m. PT), with four fights simulcast on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET. The main card is on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET (PPV cost: $79.99).

UFC 315 Predictions, Odds

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value. And after looking at the UFC 315 odds, today's event is no exception.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC 315 odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

UFC 315 odds are as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 315 with our DraftKings promo code.

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

UFC 315 Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projections for each of Saturday's 12 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings.

UFC 315 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside the distance.

Brad Katona vs. Bekzat Almakhan

Projection: Bekzat Almakhan (60.4%)

I don't project actionable value on the first fight on Saturday's preliminary card. However, I show a small edge on Almakhan's moneyline (projected -153, listed -148) and his odds to win by decision (projected +136, listed +140).

Still, we don't have a ton of useful information about Bekzat, who lost his short-notice debut as a near +800 underdog against Umar Nurmagomedov after knocking his opponent down early.

He's young (27 years old) and an explosive athlete, but Bekzat showed bare minimal defensive grappling in his UFC debut—failing to deny any of the five takedowns and spending 11:26 of the 15-minute fight in control positions.

His regional experience, which included modified rules MMA fights with limited grappling, is mostly suspect; still, he put together some nice wins over South American talent before joining the UFC:

Bekzat has a four-inch reach advantage over Katona, is the faster athlete and the younger man (six-year age gap), and has more finishing upside. However, Katona has the wrestling and grappling advantages (three takedown attempts per five minutes at distances, 34% accuracy, 74% control rate), is incredibly durable, and offers excellent cardio.

I would play Almakhan on the moneyline near -145 (59.2% implied, at nearly a two percent edge compared to my projection; otherwise, I would pass on this fight.

Bets

• Bekzat Almakhan (-129, 0.25u) at NoVig (small to -145)

Daniel Santos vs. Jeong Yeong Lee

Projection: Jeong Yeong Lee (59%)

Daniel "Willycat" Santos missed weight on Friday after moving up from Bantamweight; he's at a significant size disadvantage against "Korean Tiger" Jeong Yeong Lee, who is set to close as a favorite for his third consecutive UFC bout.

Lee is the more natural Featherweight (3" taller, 6" reach advantage) and the more technical fighter.

Willycat is highly aggressive, providing relentless pace and pressure, but he's not particularly efficient at that activity (37% striking accuracy).

Still, Lee has struggled against pressure fighters, particularly in his last bout against "Hurricane" Hyder Amil, in which he suffered his first career knockout loss.

Since then, he's been booked twice against two opponents (Trevor Peek and Gavin Tucker) who pulled out of their matchups. Conversely, Santos has withdrawn from three consecutive fights—against Daniel Marcos, Said Nurmagomedov, and Davey Grant—since his last fight in June 2023. He then moved up in weight and was still heavy on the scales on Friday.

Public predictions are heavy toward Santos this week (north of 60% on average), while Lee has moved from +110 to at high as -142 as of writing; bet Lee's moneyline to -135, compared to my projection of -144.

Moreover, I expect this fight to reach a decision more often than the odds suggest (projected -127, listed +130) – compared to a divisional average of 48% (+108 implied) and view Lee as a value bet to win by decision projected +192, listed +350).

Bets

• Jeong Yeong Lee (-134, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to -135
• Jeong Yeong Lee wins by Decision (+320, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +225
• Lee/Santos, Over 2.5 Rounds (+115, 0.25u) at Fanatics; bet to +100

Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Bruno Silva

Projection: Marc-Andre Barriault (65.7%)

Bruno Silva has lost four consecutive UFC bouts, six of his past seven, has openly discussed mental health concerns regarding his career, which makes Friday's weight miss all the more concerning.

"Blindado" has highlight-reel power (20 of 23 career wins by KO/TKO) and exceptional durability (never KO'ed despite going toe-to-toe with Alex Pereira), but is extremely hittable (41% striking defense), has seemingly lost a step athletically, and is losing interest in fighting mentally in recent matchups.

Marc-Andre Barriault is a high-volume point fighter who was once considered exceptionally durable. However, he has been finished in four of his five losses, including consecutive first-round knockouts against Joe Pyfer and—far more concerningly—Dustin Stoltzfus; his chin may be permanently compromised.

I'd favor Barriault on cardio and output in a longer fight (- -0.1 to -1.7 strike difference per minute; lands 5.9 vs. 4.7). He has some offensive wrestling upside, too, but Silva is the likelier finisher of the pair.

I'd consider betting Barriault up to -180 (projected -192), and also show value on the fight to go to decision (projected +123, listed +154) with the line closer to the divisional average (38%, +163 implied).

Additionally, I project correlated value on Barriault to win by decision (projected +198, listed +270) or his point spread (-3.5, +110) at plus money, which expresses his dominant decision and finishing upside together.

I do prefer Barriault's moneyline or point spread among those four bets; Silva's weight miss is another sign that he isn't taking fighting as seriously as he used to, but Barriault's chin is now a significant liability, as his early-career durability has faded—and it's difficult to imagine a low-tempo fight between these strikers.

Lastly, consider a live bet on Barriault after Round 1, in the event he gets clipped but survives; MAB should win the majority of minutes in this fight, but Santos could steal a round with a huge moment, which is why I'm less inclined to lay the 3.5 rounds.

Bets

• Marc-Andre Barriault (-150, 0.25u) at BallyBet; bet to -180
• Marc-Andre Barriault Live after Round 1

Navajo Stirling vs. Ivan Erslan

Projection: Navajo Stirling (83%)

Navajo Stirling is my most significant projected moneyline edge on Saturday's card – I set the City Kickboxing product as a -487 favorite (83% implied), compared to listed odds of -320 (76.2% implied).

You can bet Stirling's moneyline up to -425 (81% implied) or use him as a parlay piece to -455 (82% implied).

Stirling is six years younger than Erslan, but the much bigger man, two inches taller, with a seven-inch reach advantage, should dominate at kicking range while Erslan struggles to close the distance and land boxing combinations.

Moreover, on our UFC Betting Preview, my colleague Billy Ward recommended betting Stirling, who is a patient counterstriker, to win in Round 2 (+480) or Round 3 (+750) rather than taking even money or laying small juice on his KO/TKO prop (projected -113, listed +100).

Additionally, consider a live bet on Stirling after Round 1. Erslan may develop a grappling-oriented game plan early and attempt to impose his physicality. If so, Stirling will simply look to resist and let his opponent tire himself out in the early stages, before swinging the momentum.

Bets

• Parlay (-116, 0.5u) at DraftKings: Navajo Stirling (-310) & Natalia Silva (-245); Use Stirling as a Parlay Piece to -455
• Navajo Stirling wins in Round 2 (+450, 0.1u) at ESPNBet
• Navajo Stirling wins in Round 3 (+750, 0.05u) at ESPNBet
• Navajo Stirling Live after Round 1

Modestas Bukauskas vs. Ion Cutelaba

Projection: Ion Cutelaba (58%)

Modestas Bukausas is 4-1 in his second UFC stint, following his brutal 2021 leg injury against Khalil Rountree Jr., but will face a grappling-oriented opponent for the first time in years, in Ion Cutelaba (averages 4.6 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance, 52% accuracy, 54% control rate) who fights like he's double parked (average fight time of 7:48).

Bukauskas has the bigger frame (2" taller, 3" reach advantage), is the more technical striker at range, and has the better gas tank of the pair. However, he has struggled against more physical opponents and powerful athletes (losses to Rountree, Vitor Petrino, Michal Oleksiejczuk, and Jimmy Crute), is not particularly durable himself, and seems a much better offensive grappler than he is defensively.

Cutelaba has underrated wrestling and judo, and can take almost every opponent down. Still, he tends to prioritize submission over position on the mat and exerts all of his energy behind every technique that he attempts in the cage, creating a chaotic atmosphere in every one of his matchups.

Cutelaba has shown the ability to sustain a grappling-heavy game plan for at least ten minutes, but he slows drastically in the second half of his fights, and as Cutelaba wanes, Bukauskas should have a path to a come-from-behind finish in the third round.

Still, I'd expect Cutelaba to look like the much more dangerous and effective fighter from the opening bell, and would bet his moneyline pre-fight, up to -130 (projected -138).

You can consider searching for a live bet on Bukauskas after Round 1 – or midway through Round 2- as the live market will likely offer the peak price point on the underdog.

In addition to Cutelaba's moneyline, I also show value on the Fight to End Inside the Distance (projected -370, listed  -200) and on Cutelaba to win Inside the Distance (projected +116, listed +130).

Bets

• Ion Cutelaba (-120, 0.5u) at FanDuel; bet to -130
• Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-200, 0.25u) at ESPNBet; bet to -250
• Modestas Bukauskas Live during Round 2

Jessica Andrade vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius

Projection: Jasmine Jasudavicius (78.9%)

Jasmine Jasudavicius has a significant height and reach advantage (6" taller, 6" longer) over Jessica Andrade, who holds most of the violence records for the UFC women's divisions, but is generally undersized at Flyweight; doing her best work earlier in her career at strawweight.

Still, Andrade is the far more dangerous and effective striker (+0.4 to -1.9 differential at range), and Jasudavicius likely needs to keep Andrade on bottom for significant stretches of the fight—or finish her from top position—to win this matchup; otherwise, Andrade won't feel threatened by Jasmine's power (45% striking accuracy) and should capitalize on her lackluster striking defense (51%).

Jasudavicius has the offensive wrestling (43% takedown accuracy on 49 attempts; 3.8 per five minutes at distance) and clinch game to neutralize Andrade on the mat or hold her up against the fence (94% control rate), and Andrade, once she is flat on her back, offers minimal resistance.

And when she does try to stand, Andrade often leaves her neck exposed, which could allow Jasudavicius to finish her with a front headlock choke (has a Brabo and an Anaconda in previous UFC wins).

I projected Jasudavicius as a -373 favorite, and would consider her moneyline up to -330 (77% implied) as a straight bet, or -350 as a parlay piece.

Alternatively, consider betting Jasudavicus on the point spread (- 3.5, -135), play her decision prop (projected -105, listed +135) or bet the fight to reach a decision (projected -163, listed -115) compared to a divisional average of 68% (-212 implied).

Lastly, look to live bet Jasudavicius after Round 1; she might eat a big bunch that steals the round for Andrade, but I'd expect her wrestling to become more effective the longer the fight goes on.

Bets

• Parlay (+108, 0.25u) at FanDuel: Jasmine Jasudavicius (-290) & Jose Aldo (-185)
• Jasmine Jasudavicius -3.5 Points (-140, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -150
• Jasmine Jasudavicius Live after Round 1

Mike Malott vs. Charles Radtke

Projection: Mike Malott (56%)

Charles "Chuck Buffalo" Radtke is my lone underdog selection for UFC 315 against "Proper" Mike Malott, who has shown significant cardio concerns when he's unable to finish opponents early.

Malott is the bigger man (1" taller, 4" reach advantage) and likely the better wrestler of the pair, but Radtke is a more than capable jiu-jitsu black belt who regularly competes in grappling competitions and is also the more effective offensive striker.

Radtke is often overly aggressive in MMA fights, and I'd expect Malott to land a takedown and gain top position early; still, if Radtke survives that initial exchange, I favor him to win each round increasingly as the fight extends.

I'd bet Radtke pre-fight down to +140 (projected +127), but you might find the best number on the underdog in the live market after Round 1.

Additionally, I project value on Radtke to win by KO/TKO (projected +234, listed +340) or inside the distance (projected +195, listed +250), and I'd consider his props to win in Round 2 (+950) or Round 3 (+1500) given the likely cardio dynamic.

Bets

• Charles Radtke (+180, 0.25u) at DraftKings bet to +140
• Charles Radtke wins in Round 2 (+950, 0.05u) at FanDuel
• Charles Radtke wins in Round 3 (+1500, 0.05u) at FanDuel
• Charles Radtke Live after Round 1

Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec

Projection: Benoit Saint-Denis (89.8%)

Kyle Preploec will return to the UFC on a short-notice PPV main card spot against Benoit Saint-Denis, who was initially supposed to face Spain's Joel Alvarez, as he attempts to rebound from consecutive 2024 losses against Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano.

Preploec went 0-2 in his previous UFC stint in 2019, losing to Nordine Taleb and Austin Hubbard. He's 4-1 on the regional scene since then and was preparing to fight PFL veteran Michael Dufort on a regional card in Quebec this weekend.

As a result, Preploec enters this bout on a full training camp, and he's proven durable throughout his career. Still, he's not particularly powerful, limiting his "puncher's chance" upside, and he will likely struggle on the bottom against Saint-Denis's powerful grappling attack.

Based on the early prop lines, I don't project any actionable value on this fight; if that changes, I'll update this section.

I would have considered Fight to Start Round 2 at plus money, but that line opened around -109.

A Same-Game Parlay (SGP) of Saint-Denis and the Over 1.5 Rounds is +165 at DraftKings; you can get the same odds for the Over 1.5 alone (+165) at BetRivers.

Bets

• Pass

Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva

Projection: Silva (77.9%)

Natalia Silva has posted elite distance-striking numbers on her current six-fight UFC winning streak, with a combined 111 figure in offensive striking accuracy and defensive striking percentages, which ranks among the elite in the sport.

Typically, championship-calibre fighters clear that 110 threshold, with Jon Jones (122), Islam Makhachev (119), Valentina Shevchenko (116), Alexander Volkanovski (114), and Ilia Topuria (111) clearing that bar. Popular fighters like Max Holloway (106) and Dustin Poirier (102) are in similar territory, but not quite as elite as the more dominant champions.

Alexa Grasso's combined figure is 99, which is fairly average by UFC standards (most fighters regress towards 100).

Silva should have significant advantages in speed and distance management (+3.7 to +0.4 strike differential per minute), as she repeatedly kicks Grasso, who prefers to counterstrike in the pocket at boxing range rather than cutting the cage against a quicker, more athletic opponent.

Grasso likely needs grappling success to win this fight, but she's not a particularly strong or proactive wrestler (0.6 attempts per five minutes, 40% accuracy, 36% control rate). Silva has defended 22 of the 24 takedown attempts against her in the UFC (and won 13 of her 15 rounds).

As a result, Grasso likely needs to turn a caught kick into a takedown and potentially submit Silva with that opportunity, like she did to Valentina Shevchenko to win the UFC title.

Otherwise, I'd expect Silva to pick her apart at a distance and ascend toward title contention with a win over a former champion.

I projected Natalia Silva as a -353 favorite (77.9% implied) and would bet her moneyline to -315 (75.9% implied) – at a two percent edge compared to my projected line – or use it as a parlay piece to -333.

Alternatively, or in addition, consider betting Silva's pointspread (-3.5, +110) at any plus money price; and look to jump in with a live wager if she loses a competitive first round.

Bets

• Natalia Silva as a Parlay Piece (up to -333)
• Natalia Silva Live after Round 1

Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi

Projection: Jose Aldo (66.8%)

Including his fights in WEC, Jose Aldo will make his 31st walk to the octagon on Saturday at age 38, against local fighter Aiemann Zahabi, brother of Firas Zahabi, the head trainer at Tristar Gym in Montreal (home of UFC GOAT Georges St-Pierre).

Aldo remains extremely effective at boxing range and in higher-output striking fights.

Still, while his takedown defense remains elite (92% career; denied 98 of 107 attempts), Aldo has struggled to work his way out of the clinch in recent years; ceding over five minutes of control to Merab Dvalishvili and more than seven minutes to Mario Bautista in their matchups, despite denying all 26 combined takedown attempts from those opponents.

Zahabi is a low-activity fighter who hasn't attempted many takedowns in his career (0.4 attempts per five minutes at distance, completed one of seven attempts), but his striking numbers compared to Aldo are remarkably similar (4.1 landed, 4.2 absorbed vs. 4.3 landed and absorbed for Aldo).

Both men like to counter, which could further suppress the striking output in this fight. Any close or competition decision helps the underdog, who is fighting in front of a partisan crowd, in a fight lined to go the distance (projected -369, listed -330).

I project slight value on Aldo's moneyline (projected -201, listed -185) and would bet him to -185, but would wait to see if the line moves in any further after opening nearer to -230.

Alternatively, I show a slight edge on Aldo to win by decision (projected -111, listed -106) but not enough to fire a wager.

Bets

• Jose Aldo (-185 or better; wait for best price on fight day)

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot

Projection: Fiorot (61%)

For additional information on Saturday's co-main event and women's Flyweight title bout, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Billy Ward.

Shcvchenko – one of the more dominant champions in UFC history (9-2-1 in title bouts) is understandably a popular underdog selection this week – with public projections picking her to win the fight 63% of the time, on average, compared to odds as high as +130 earlier in the week.

Shevchenko's number has come back down toward her opening line, but I prefer Fiorot as the value side of the matchup, projecting her as a 61% favorite (-156) implied); bet the challenger up to -140.

Both women are on the wrong side of the divisional age curve (Shevhcnkeo is 37, Fiorot is 35). Still, Fiorot has taken substantially less damage in her MMA career (half as many fights), and looked technically and physically impressive in her main event win over Erin Blanchfield, landing 172 strikes last March.

Conversely, Shevchenko seems like a diminished athlete relative to her prime, particularly at striking range, where she's not as fast as she used to be.

As a result, Shevchenko (career 64% takedown accuracy, 2.6 attempts per five minutes) has relied more on proactive grappling in recent fights, landing 16 takedowns on 25 attempts in three fights against Grasso, while spending half of their fight time (3o of the 69 minutes) in control positions.

Fiorot, who seems particularly strong for the division, has denied 14 of 15 takedown attempts against her in the UFC and won 17 of 19 rounds.

Fiorot – who comes from a Muay Thai base – has better boxing skills and more power in her hands. Shevchenko, whom Grasso dropped, may be tagged by an even more potent puncher.

Still, Shevhcneko has more five-round experience, and I favor her gas tank in the back half of the fight.

Take the favorite pre-fight, and consider a live bet on Shevchenko after Round 2.

Bets

• Manon Fiorot (-125, 0.5u) at Fanatics; bet to -140
• Valentina Shevchenko Live after Round 2

Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena

Projection: Belal Muhammad (61.1%)

For additional information on Saturday's main event and Welterweight title bout, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out my full fight preview.

In short, I project Jack Della Maddalena is a +157 underdog, and would consider betting his moneyline at +160 or better. The number has moved down from +205 to +150 over the past week, but is finally ticking back up; we'll try to time the peak price on fight day.

Moreover, I project an edge on the Fight to End Inside the Distance (projected +109, listed +133) and on Della Maddalena to win by KO/TKO (projected +229, listed +350) or inside the distance (projected +202, listed +275); I'd bet the latter down to +225.

Bets

• Jack Della Maddalena (+170, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to +160
• Jack Della Maddalena wins Inside the Distance (+275, 0.1u) at DraftKings

Sean Zerillo's UFC 315 Picks & Predictions

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Moneyline Bets

• Bekzat Almakhan (-129, 0.25u) at NoVig; bet to -145
• Jeong Yeong Lee (-134, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to -135
• Marc-Andre Barriault (-150, 0.25u) at BallyBet; bet to -180
• Ion Cutelaba (-120, 0.5u) at FanDuel; bet to -130
• Charles Radtke (+180, 0.25u) at DraftKings bet to +140
• Manon Fiorot (-125, 0.5u) at Fanatics; bet to -140
• Jack Della Maddalena (+170, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to +160

Prop Bets and Totals

• Jeong Yeong Lee wins by Decision (+320, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +225
• Lee/Santos, Over 2.5 Rounds (+115, 0.25u) at Fanatics; bet to +100
• Navajo Stirling wins in Round 2 (+450, 0.1u) at ESPNBet
• Navajo Stirling wins in Round 3 (+750, 0.05u) at ESPNBet
• Cutelaba/Bukauskas, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-200, 0.25u) at ESPNBet; bet to -250
• Jasmine Jasudavicius -3.5 Points (-140, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -150
• Charles Radtke wins in Round 2 (+950, 0.05u) at FanDuel
• Charles Radtke wins in Round 3 (+1500, 0.05u) at FanDuel
• Jack Della Maddalena wins Inside the Distance (+275, 0.1u) at DraftKings

Parlays

• Parlay (-116, 0.5u) at DraftKings: Navajo Stirling (-310) & Natalia Silva (-245)
• Parlay (+108, 0.25u) at FanDuel: Jasmine Jasudavicius (-290) & Jose Aldo (-185)

Live Bets

• Marc-Andre Barriault Live after Round 1
• Navajo Stirling Live after Round 1
• Modestas Bukauskas Live during Round 2
• Jasmine Jasudavicius Live after Round 1
• Charles Radtke Live after Round 1
• Natalia Silva Live after Round 1
• Valentina Shevchenko Live after Round 2