Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot Odds, Prediction
| Shevchenko Odds | +114 |
| Fiorot Odds | -135 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 Rounds (-298/+220) |
| Location | Centre Bell | Montreal, Quebec |
| Bout Time | 11:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 315 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC 315 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot predictions, picks and odds for UFC 315 on Saturday, May 10.
Women's flyweight goat Valentina Shevchenko has finally completed her series with Alexa Grasso, emerging with the title she first claimed in 2018. It's been nearly three years since Shevchenko has fought anyone else, and she has a stiff test in front of her in the form of Frenchwoman Manon Fiorot. Fiorot is a perfect 7-0 in the UFC and has looked like a future champion, rarely even dropping a round.
Here's my Shevchenko vs. Fiorot prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Shevchenko | Fiorot | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-4-1 | 12-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 18:22 | 14:35 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 66" | 65" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/7/1988 | 12/17/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.16 | 6.26 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 41% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.00 | 3.07 |
| SS Defense | 64% | 68% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.74 | 1.17 |
| TD Acc | 64% | 42% |
| TD Def | 71% | 93% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0 |
There's a phenomena I often note with fighters who are extremely tall or long for their division that applies in a similar fashion here.
Occasionally, a fighter who is used to having a reach advantage in their fights finds themselves in a matchup against the rare opponent with a similar or longer reach, forcing them to pivot from their typical game plan and seek new edges.
While it's not height or reach that Shevchenko and Fiorot typically enjoy, we have a comparable dynamic. Both women typically enjoy a massive physical edge over their opponents in terms of size and strength — factors that should be fairly even here.
Each come from a kickboxing background, but have relied (to various extents) on takedowns since transitioning to MMA. While neither are elite technical wrestlers or Judokas, both have been able to bully opponents to the mat when need be.
Fiorot's win over Erin Blanchfield was an excellent example of that. Blanchfield is a standout BJJ artist and wrestler, but Fiorot landed the only takedown of the fight by simply picking Blanchfield up from a clinch.
Shevchenko has had a similar approach for years, landing eight takedowns over an outmatched Alexa Grasso to reclaim her flyweight title in the conclusion of their trilogy.
This should be a fairly even striking match, with Fiorot pushing a faster pace but Shevchenko responding with solid counter strikes. Both have solid power in theory, but have combined for just one knockdown since 2019.
Given that both are extremely durable, it's unlikely we see too many big moments on the feet. Fiorot likely gets the nod from the judges in rounds contested solely standing due to her superior volume, but we might not see many of those.
Instead, it's likely the grappling dynamics that decide this fight.
Shevchenko is the busier fighter from top position generally. Her output was somewhat limited by the submission game of Grasso, but she typically mixes in plenty of ground and pound. Fiorot appears less comfortable from the top when she gets there, and seems happy to simply hold position. As an example, she landed just eight ground strikes on Mayra Bueno Silva despite landing two takedowns and picking up four minutes of control time.
In a scenario where both women spend time in top position, that certainly favors the champion.
Shevchenko vs. Fiorot Prediction
A 37 year-old champion who relies on physical tools matched up against a surging prospect is typically where I'd look to bet on a passing of the torch.
However, the twist here is that Fiorot is just two years her junior at age 35. While "The Beast" certainly hasn't shown any signs of athletic decline, neither has Shevchenko, and it's hard to bake such a slight age difference into a handicap.
Stylistically these women are very similar, but Shevchenko has a big edge in experience. Specifically against bigger, stronger, women.
Shevchenko began her career at bantamweight, finished two champions of the division (including current title holder Julianna Pena), and took Amanda Nunes to a split decision. We know that many parts of her game "play up" when she isn't able to physically dominate her opponent.
The same can't be said for Fiorot, whose best UFC wins are former strawweight Rose Namajunas and 24 year-old Erin Blanchfield. Blanchfield has a bright future, but is still years away from reaching her prime.
For that reason, I want to be on Shevchenko. Additionally, I also want to get plus money in fights projected to be this close.
Since I missed the best numbers on Shevchenko — she was as high as +135 this week — I'm shifting to her Round 4/5/Decision prop at FanDuel. The odds are +165 currently, but I'd take it to +150.
Billy's Pick: Valentina Shevchenko in Rounds 4, 5, or by Decision +165 (FanDuel)
