Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Projections: Our Best Bets, Featuring Newcastle United vs. Leicester City (April 16-17)

After one of the best Premier League matches of the past few seasons this past weekend, the title race remains in the same place with Manchester City leading Liverpool by a point.

This weekend, we have a shortened slate due to the FA Cup semifinal round taking place. There aren't any big games on deck, but there's plenty at stake in terms of the top-four battle and relegation fight.

If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here. You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Premier League Projections 

Best Bets

Watford vs. Brentford

Brentford is in incredible form right now. The Bees have won four of their last five matches, creating a whopping 9.1 expected goals in those games.

This is a really good matchup for them for a few reasons. First off, Watford is the worst team in the English top flight at playing through pressure, sitting  last in Offensive PPDA and pressure success rate allowed.

Brentford is seventh in PPDA and sixth in high turnovers, per Opta. If we go back to when these teams met in December, the Bees' pressure completely overwhelmed the Hornets, as they had a 49% pressure success rate and PPDA of 4.10, which is the best mark for an EPL team in a match this season.

Secondly, Brentford struggles when it has to play teams that successfully press high. Luckily for the club, Watford isn't that team, as it sits 19th in PPDA and 17th in high turnovers.

The last time these teams played it was an incredibly dominant Brentford performance in a 2-1 win. The Bees won the xG battle by a 1.9-0.6 margin, held 64% possession and out-touched Watford in the penalty area by a whopping 31-8 advantage, per fbref.com.

Also, Watford has been incredibly unlucky under manager Roy Hodgson. In his 11 matches in charge, the Hornets have a -14 actual goal differential, but only a -3.98 xGDiff in the process. This past weekend, they suffered a 3-0 loss against Leeds United, but the xG battle wound up just 1.3-1.2 in favor of the Peacocks.

However, since February, Brentford has dramatically been the better side, with a +0.33 xGDiff per 90 minutes, while Watford is sitting at -0.36 xGD per 90 minutes.

I love the Brentford to get a road result at Vicarage Road, so I'm going to back the club on the Draw no Bet line at -124 odds and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Brentford — Draw No Bet (-124)

Newcastle vs. Leicester

Newcastle has been over-performing since the January transfer window and the market hasn’t adjusted for it. The Magpies closed at +115 odds against Wolves last Friday and created 0.75 non-penalty xG in the game. Since Jan. 15, Newcastle has a +3 actual goal differential, but a -1.2 xGDiff overall.

During that time frame, the Magpies grabbed 23 points in 12 matches, which the third most in the EPL, but their expected points is sitting at 16.5, per understat.com. So, they’re due for some negative regression. 

Leicester finally has gotten one of their best center backs in Johnny Evans back when, for most of the season, Daniel Amartey has had to play out of position. And that's a big reason why the Foxes' defense has been so bad.

*(graphic via infogol.net)

Since Evans returned, Leicester allowed 1.3 xG against Manchester United; 0.47 xGA versus PSV Eindhoven in the Europa Conference League; and, 1.3 xGA against Crystal Palace with a penalty. With Evans in the lineup this season, Leicester is allowing 1.50 xG per 90 minutes. Without him, the Foxes are allowing 1.80 xG per game, so he does have a positive defensive effect. 

The last time these sides met Leicester completely drilled Newcastle in a 4-0 blowout at King Power Stadium and created 2.5 xG off only seven shots. Needless to say, that's incredibly efficient.

I have this match projected right at a Pick'em, so I love the value on Leicester via the Draw No Bet betting option at +144 odds.

Pick: Leicester City — Draw No Bet (+144)