The New York Mets (25-15) host the Chicago Cubs (23-17) on Sunday, May 11, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 12:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Roku.
The Cubs and Mets are two of the best teams in the National League and they'll have a standalone start on Mother's Day Sunday.
Find my Cubs vs Mets prediction for Sunday below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Cubs vs Mets Prediction, Pick for Sunday
- Cubs vs Mets pick: Mets Moneyline -130 (play to -150)
My Cubs vs Mets best bet for Sunday is the Mets moneyline (-130). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 8 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 8 -110o / -110u | -125 |
Cubs vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Griffin Canning (NYM) | Stat | LHP Matthew Boyd (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | W-L | 3-2 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 2.50/3.97 | ERA /xERA | 2.75/3.52 |
| 3.39/3.40 | FIP / xFIP | 3.77/4.10 |
| 1.39 | WHIP | 1.35 |
| 14.4% | K-BB% | 14.3% |
| 53% | GB% | 36.8% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 102 | Location+ | 101 |
Cubs vs Mets Preview, Prediction
Mets Betting Preview: Canning & Offense Shining
The Mets still hold sole possession of first place in the NL East, but the Phillies are inching closer to stealing the spot.
The Mets appeared to snare a gem in right-handed starter Griffin Canning.
Canning boasts a shimmering 2.50 ERA with a 3.97 xERA, 3.39 FIP, and 3.40 xFIP. So, Canning's numbers will likely level out a bit, but his potential regression won't be very extreme.
It’s been interesting to see Canning’s approach change, and that's part of why I'm buying into him. During his time with the Angels, he was an extreme fly-ball pitcher who has morphed into a ground-ball maestro in Queens. Canning's WHIP is almost the same as last year, but his ability to put the ball on the ground can end a threat faster than it used to.
He only struck out 6.8 per nine last year while recording a pedestrian 40.7% ground ball rate and allowed a robust 1.63 HR/9. While Canning suddenly found a way to get out, it’s not really a change in his arsenal. Besides throwing his slider more, he largely throws everything the same amount with better execution.
There’s a new big three in the Big Apple. Since April 20, the trio of Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Juan Soto has each posted a wRC+ above 160. The best part is Soto and Lindor feature a strikeout rate below 15% and have six and five homers, respectively, in their last 18 games.
Some offenses are top-heavy, but the Mets offense is elite from top to bottom. They have 11 hitters who took at least 20 at-bats in their last 18 games with a wRC+ better than 105.
The two biggest X-Factors for the Mets offense are Luisangel Acuna and Mark Vientos. Acuna is an old-school hitter, posting a .314 average with a .039 isolated power and a 17% K rate. Meanwhile, Vientos has a 125 wRC+ in his last 63 PAs, lifting his season wRC+ to 93.
There's no easy way to contain the Mets offense. Through their last 18 games, they rank fourth in strikeout rate, first in walk rate, and second in MLB with 29 homers.
Cubs Betting Preview: Cubs Swinging Well
Speaking of sharp free-agency decisions, the Cubs made a great one with southpaw Matthew Boyd.
Boyd started the year with 11 scoreless innings but allowed 2+ runs in five straight outings. That’s not bad, as he still deploys a strong 2.75 ERA with a 3.52 xERA and .252 xBA.
Boyd can’t stack the traffic against this Mets offense. He enters Saturday’s outing with a 3.77 FIP and 4.10 xFIP, so the constant base runners will likely harm him eventually. Walks have been a thorn in his side. He issues nearly three free passes per nine innings.
Chicago has an elite offense, posting a strong 108 wRC+ since April 20th. Still, its production pales in comparison to the Mets offense. The Cubs are 29 points worse in wRC+, with a worse K rate, BB rate, and almost 50 points lower in OBP.
The top five hitters for the Cubs are Dansby Swanson, Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Carson Kelly, and Ian Happ. Each of them has a wRC+ above 125 in their last 17 games.
It's a real boost to the Cubs offense to receive well above league-average hitting from Swanson and Crow-Armstrong. That pair is the key to Chicago maintaining a strong wRC+, especially since Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch, who crushed the ball in April, are struggling in May.
The Cubs offense strikes the ball with intensity, ranking sixth with a .177 isolated power and seventh in homers since April 20th. Canning allows just 0.75 HR/9 thus far, but we'll see if the Cubs can make him revert to the Canning of old.
Cubs vs Mets Prediction, Moneyline Pick
I like the Mets are -130 here. I trust Canning a bit more than Boyd here, and the Mets bullpen should be more rested than the Cubs, who went with a bullpen game on Saturday.
