The Oklahoma City Thunder (1-2) and Denver Nuggets (2-1) will face off in Game 4 of their second round NBA Playoff series this afternoon. Tipoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Thunder are 7-point favorites over the Nuggets on the spread (Thunder -7), with the over/under set at 230 total points. Oklahoma City is a -278 favorite to win outright, while Denver is +225 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, May 11.
Thunder vs Nuggets Prediction, Picks for NBA Playoffs Game 4
My Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 4 best bet is on Oklahoma City to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best price using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Thunder -7 (-110)
Thunder vs Nuggets Betting Odds for Sunday, May 11
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 230 -110o / -110u | -278 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 230 -110o / -110u | +225 |
- Thunder vs. Nuggets spread: Thunder -7
- Thunder vs. Nuggets over/under: 230 total points
- Thunder vs. Nuggets moneyline: Thunder -278, Nuggets +225
- Thunder vs. Nuggets best bet:Thunder -7 (-110)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Game 4 Preview
If you dig narratives, the previous game of this Nuggets-Thunder series was your jam. The experienced team clutched up while the group of inexperienced kiddos got tight late in another clutch game, and the underdog with a seven-man rotation came out with a 2-1 lead.
The thing is, not all narratives are false. The true story was that Denver showed championship mettle and ability to be calm in tense moments, and the Thunder were rattled.
But in order for a game to get into clutch time, it has to be close. In order for it to be close, the Thunder (a substantially better team) has to underperform to a point where Denver can close on them.
If the Nuggets are going to win this series, it’s going to be close every time. They are banking on exactly what has happened, getting the game within five points in the final five minutes, and their experience and best level of defense getting them the win. They have no illusions of blowing OKC out.
The Thunder, on the other hand, want no such part of that experience. Oklahoma City wants to avoid clutch time altogether by just, you know, blowing out the opponent.
The Thunder have led the vast majority of this series. The two Denver wins were not flukes. (Well, the Game 3 win anyway. I’m still not honestly sure how they won Game 1 in OKC).
The Nuggets' wins were the product of OKC’s lack of composure and execution, coupled with the Thunder's season-long penchant for leaving three-point shooters open.
Denver shot 40 percent from 3-point range in the third matchup of this series. The Thunder shot 29 percent.
How’s this for a trend: when a team is at home after Game 1 as a underdog, and in the previous game the opponent shot worse than 30 percent from 3-point range (OKC) and the home team shot 40 percent or better (Denver), the home underdog is just 4-17 SU and 6-15 ATS (29 percent) since 2003.
A team in Denver’s spot hasn’t won since 2018.
The Thunder have lost twice in a row just three times this season. They are unlikely to lose again. Denver has done what they needed to, ensuring Oklahoma City can’t close this series out at home.
If the game presents itself, sure, Denver will go all out. But the Nuggets are also on a shorter rotation, coming off more games total in the playoffs, with an early start less than 36 hours since the previous game ended.
Oklahoma City has too much it can clean up, too many better offensive performances it can generate. If this game is close late, the Thunder are in trouble, again.
But the spread suggests they’re expected to be outside that range (just like they were in Game 3, to be fair).
I think the Nuggets are live to win this series, but I think it’s going to take six or seven to get it done. I liked Denver in Game 3. I like the Thunder in Game 4 today.
Thunder vs Nuggets Game 4 Betting Predictions
Under 230 (-110)
Do you realize the Thunder took 104 shots in the previous matchup of this series and the game still went under?
This total moved from 222 at open all the way to 227.5, after closing 232 in Game 3.
The Thunder may put up a huge number like they did in Game 2, but that was at home.
I’m not expecting massive regression from OKC's shooters on the road, but I am expecting regression from Denver’s.
I think the market has overreacted to the initial line of 222.5 and this number is too high now.
So, I’ll play back against the market move at under 227.5.
Michael Porter Jr. Under 12.5 Points (-115)
This might be my favorite bet of the day.
After his quite frankly heroic Game 3, Porter revealed that he had a shot of lidocaine as a numbing agent before Game 3.
Porter said that you need to spread out the injections he’s gotten to get through his shoulder joint sprain, but the game was so important he decided to go ahead and get one now.
But he won’t be able to get another one for several days. Porter has resisted taking (legal, NBA-approved) steroids to deal with this injury. He’s likely to be worse in Game 4 today.
The guys is literally grabbing rebounds with one arm and just took a tough fall on that shoulder. I’ll play the under on his 12.5 points.
Jalen Williams 6+ Assists (+132)
Williams has tallied assist totals of 5,7, and 4 in this series, and is averaging 10.3 potential assists per game.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 7.5 Assists (-110)
Shai leads this series in potential assists, averaging 20.7 per game which is ridiculous.
His conversion mark is actually lower than it should be heading into Game 4 this afternoon.
Thunder vs Nuggets Best Bets for Game 4
- Thunder -7 (-110)
- Under 230 (-110)
- Michael Porter Jr. Under 12.5 Points (-115)
- Chet Holmgren Double-Double (+125)
- Isaiah Hartenstein Double-Double (+230)
- Jalen Williams 6+ Assists (+132)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 7.5 Assists (-110)
Thunder vs Nuggets Game 4 Parlay Picks
Chet Holmgren Double-Double (+125)
Holmgren missed a lot of gimmes in Game 3.
Some of it was good rim protection. Some of it was just a young player rushed. He should be better in Game 4 today.
He’s been able to get Nikola Jokic in isolation on the perimeter and score. He still finished with a double-double, his second-straight.
Isaiah Hartenstein Double-Double (+230)
Hartenstein will play and will play well, the Thunder are likely to keep one big on the floor at all times as the small-ball lineups haven’t been as effective in this series against the Nuggets’ Gordon-at-five lineups.
He had a double-double in the loss Friday night, and was two rebounds short in the game before that, which was a blowout.
More Nuggets misses, means more rebounds for Hartenstein.
- Jalen Williams 4+ Assists
- Chet Holmgren Double-Double
- Isaiah Hartenstein Double-Double
- Thunder -7
Parlay Payout: +1300
Nuggets vs. Thunder Betting Trends
- 50% of bets and 54% of the money are on the Thunder to cover the spread
- 51% of bets and 64% of the money on the moneyline are on the Nuggets to win outright
- 91% of bets and 93% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NBA public betting & money percentages page.
For the latest on NBA injuries, be sure to check out our NBA Injury Report page.
