2021 Memorial Prop Bets: Back Finau, Fowler to Contend at Muirfield Village
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Rickie Fowler
The PGA TOUR heads to one of the most iconic courses this week for the 2021 Memorial at Muirfield Village. While Jack’s Place has been on the TOUR calendar for nearly 50 years, it will look different this time around as the course underwent some major renovations right after it hosted back-to-back events last summer.
Muirfield Village will feature completely new greens, fairways and bunkers, plus it was lengthened to nearly 7,500 yards. So, while we do have few decades of history to use here, the changes can throw a wrench into things.
Most years we see one of the bigger names hoist this trophy, but there have been a couple of major surprises here in the past. In fact, David Lingmerth and Willie McGirt went back-to-back here at 400/1 and 200/1, respectively, in 2015 and 2016.
Check out below for our favorite prop bets for the 2021 Memorial:
Rickie Fowler Top-10 Finish (+550)
After a week spent interviewing players for the SiriusXM PGA TOUR Radio coverage at the PGA Championship, there were two who I really thought were on the verge of playing up to their potential. One was Justin Rose, whose T-20 at Colonial can be considered mildly disappointing, as is his decision to skip this week’s event, where he owns a victory in 2010 and seven total top-10s in 14 career starts. He would’ve been one of my favorite plays this week, if only he had, you know, decided to play.
The other guy I’m optimistic about moving forward is Fowler, whose T-9 at Kiawah was his first top-10 since the third week of 2020. He’s drawn a lot of criticism since then for a lot of different things, but his game has clearly turned a corner.
There’s no doubt he’s still going to have some setbacks and likely won’t be consistently in the mix every week, but I’d rather jump back on the wagon too early than too late. With three top-10s in 11 career starts at this one, I think course familiarity should work in his favor this week.
Hideki Matsuyama Top-5 Finish (+500)
I gave a lot of consideration to Hideki as my best outright bet because he had an early and attractive +3000 available to win when odds were released. Those odds have backed up a touch, but it doesn’t change the fact that I like the current Masters Champion to have a good week at Muirfield Village.
He came back from his post-Masters layoff in Japan just as sharp as when he left. Mastsuyama gained nearly six strokes ball-striking in his return at the Byron Nelson, before reeling off nearly 10 in that same category at the PGA Championship. This could be a scenario where the Japanese star finally had the weight of his country lifted off of him with his major championship win, and that could give him the confidence to swing free for victories each week he tees it up.
Hideki looks good on many different levels this week, which has me dialed in for a Top 5 finish, but I may also pull the trigger on him to win.
Tony Finau Top-5 Finish (+550)
Finau is an excellent fit at Muirfield village as evidenced by his 18 and 36-hole leads last year. He has four top-15 finishes in six trips to the course, and has a strong chance to get in the mix once again in 2021.
Finau arrives in great form as he gained 4.0 strokes on approach last week and 9.3 tee to green. He has also been very good around the green and having lost strokes in that category only once in his past nine starts. I actually think Tony has a shot to win this week but given his history, a top 5 bet feels far more realistic.
Corey Conners Top-20 Finish (+140)
Conners has been one of the most consistent players on the PGA TOUR this season. He’s missed just one cut over his past 19 stroke play events dating back to the Sanderson Farms back in September, and even then he missed right on the number at Genesis.
In that same time frame, Conners has posted 13 top-20 finishes, which is a whopping 65% of his events. If you extend that parameter to top-25, it would be 15-of-20. Just an outrageous stretch of gold from the Canadian. He’s played the Memorial twice in his career, finishing 22nd and 65th, and you can expect him to build on that this week. I like him to contend, so getting plus money on a T-20 finish is simply gravy.
Make-the-cut Parlay: Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Bryson Dechambeau (+100)
Boom! My prop touting less than two aces at Colonial paid last week (because there were none), but that’s not as shrewd of a move at Muirfield Village because the only prop on the board for holes-in-one sets the over-under at ½ for the entire tournament.
So, I’ll retreat into a parlay consisting of the top four in my Power Rankings to cash at even money. Duh. Even the math is in my favor since the 36-hole cut is the customary low 65 and ties even though the field is just 121 deep.
Charley Hoffman Top-20 Finish (+220)
I’m going back to the well after cashing on this prop at +175 last week. Hoffman is just playing too well right now to ignore this bet. We’re talking about five straight top-20 finishes, while gaining massive strokes in every statistical ball-striking category out there.
I know this is a tougher field than last week, but until the irons cool off I’ll be on Charley every week. Let’s keep riding this train as long as we can.